Preview: Hill vs. Waterson (Patreon)

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill may have had its main event come together last minute, but it doesn’t make it any less exciting. This will be the first time two former Invicta FC world champions headline a UFC card. Also, Angela Hill will be the first Black woman to headline a UFC event. The original event headliner was Glover Teixeira versus Thiago Santos, but after Teixeira tested positive for COVID-19, that fight was rescheduled to October 3rd. This current card is slim on talent, but Southpaw fans get to see Angela Hill compete one more time before the end of the year. Hill’s match-up against Michelle Waterson was originally slated for August 22nd, but due to undisclosed reasons from Waterson’s side, it was pushed to September 12th. Hopefully, the three-week delay results in a better fight for the fans since it’s now a five-round fight. Even though both fighters are coming off split decision losses, this match-up is still intriguing. Hill seems to be finally settling into her comfort zone at strawweight, and Waterson could find herself on a three-fight skid for the first time. Let’s break things down, starting with Southpaw favorite Angela Hill.

Hill’s current UFC record is 7-8, meaning that even if she beats Waterson, she’ll be .500 in the promotion. That might not seem impressive, but Hill is the former Invicta strawweight champion who has successfully defended her title before being called back up to the UFC (she was cut early from the promotion after back to back losses). In recent times, Hill has found consistency both in her training and fight performances. Hill has addressed the topic of her recent turnaround. She used to be worried about how a loss would affect her record during the fight itself. This led to her overanalyzing her striking and grappling, keeping her from implementing strategies that were worked on for weeks. In her fights against Jodie Esquibel and Ariane Carnelossi, Hill channeled her teammate Dominick Cruz and displayed improved stance switching and striking selection. She threw out jabs while circling and moved in with front kicks to keep her opponents within her comfort zone. Both Esquibel and Carnelossi reached out to parry the jabs only to get hit with overhand rights or knees to the body. It also wasn’t unusual to see Hill utilize the clinch and push their heads to the direction of her elbows and uppercuts.

(Hill threw an elbow off the clinch in the first exchange. In the second exchange, you can see how she used a hook to secure a brief clinch and guided Carnelossi with her free hand to an uppercut and kick.)

Against Hannah Cifers and Loma Lookboonmee, Hill showed off a much-improved ground game that helped her secure one-sided victories. Once again, Hill’s ability to out-work her opponents in the clinch came in handy. She was able to sweep Cifers to the ground while maintaining head and neck control, and against Lookboonmee, she pressed for takedowns against the fence. It wasn’t as if Hill transformed into a grappler overnight, it was her right cross helped her close the distance and got both Cifers and Lookboonmee to think twice before throwing kicks.

(After Lookboonmee finished throwing her teep kicks, Hill answered back with a lead right hand.)

In her most recent fight against Claudia Gadelha, Hill weathered a tough first round and then proceeded to box up the former strawweight title contender, and even dropped her in the second round. Hill stutter-stepped to throw off the timing of Gadelha and had her whiffing at air when she wanted to counter. Instead of relying on power, Hill focused on combination striking and landed plenty of jabs to Gadelha’s midsection to tire her out. When it came to her takedown defense, it was neat seeing how Hill fed Gadelha her lead leg so that if a takedown had been attempted, it was a single leg that would have been easier to defend. Jose Aldo made a career out of giving wrestlers his lead leg only to limp out or switch stances at the last second to throw a knee from the opposite side. Hill’s ability to stay on the feet came down to many different tools that she spent time sharpening: pummeling for underhooks, dropping her weight against the fence, framing Gadelha’s head with her forearms, and sticking her forehead into Gadelha’s jaw. All this plus her striking game meant that every single strawweight should be on notice.

(Take a good look at Hill’s footwork as she threw a right hook and stepped in with her left straight, quickly switching stances to orthodox before she shifted back to evade Gadelha’s punches.)

On the other hand, Michelle Waterson is at a bit of a crossroads in her career. Having started MMA back in 2007, Waterson has been fighting for over a decade in a weight class that’s ill-suited for her natural atomweight frame. Throughout her Invicta and early UFC appearances, Waterson’s karate-based striking and submission heavy ground game made her exciting to watch and a possible title contender at 115 pounds. Unfortunately, Waterson’s most recent fights showed a general lack of urgency and/or need to create exchanges, both on the feet and the ground. This wasn’t always the case. Against Paige VanZant, Waterson had no problem stalking VanZant and blasting her with side kicks to check hooks before executing a well-timed head & arm throw. Waterson wasted no time and took VanZant’s back, sinking in the rear-naked choke and finishing her in the first round.

(Waterson landed a side kick and threw a lead hook immediately after since VanZant’s hands were down to block the kick. To keep VanZant from advancing, Waterson threw another kick that backed up VanZant.)

Speaking of throws, don’t let Waterson’s size fool you, she’s quite adept at throws and is better on the ground than most people realize. She has more wins by submissions than knockouts or decisions combined. It’s possible that because opponents are worried about absorbing kicks or check hooks, they don’t notice when Waterson has them cornered and in the perfect position to be taken down against the fence. To be fair, critics point out that many of her best victories are against questionable opponents. Waterson defended her Invicta atomweight title against Yasuko Tamada, a fighter who had never fought in the promotion before (let alone stateside) and was NINETEEN years her senior. Tamada, who was 47 years old when they fought, was old enough to be Waterson’s mom. This isn’t to take away from Tamada’s legitimate credentials as a fighter and grappler, but if there was ever a showcase fight, this was it. Even Scott Coker would have passed on that match-up.

(Waterson looked like an absolute killer in the Tamada fight, but against this level of competition, it’s hard to proclaim her as the best in the world.)

Against Joanna Jędrzejczyk (former UFC strawweight champion), she had her moments when she was able to land takedowns and momentarily take her back, but it wasn’t enough. Jędrzejczyk’s commitment to leg kicks and combination punching kept Waterson from lunging in with her side kicks and stymied most of her takedown attempts.

(Waterson’s trip takedowns are some of the best in the strawweight division, and if it’s good enough to ground someone like Jędrzejczyk, it’s something to be prepared for.)

Things didn’t get much better against Carla Esparza, the first UFC strawweight champion. There was a sizable physical gap between Waterson and Esparza throughout the fight, almost as if they were both fighting an invisible opponent in the middle. It’s one thing to value distance and lay traps as a counter fighter, but if you’re so far apart that there’s no way for YOUR offense to hurt them, then it’s not a sound strategy. The fear of running into kicks kept Esparza at bay, but she bit down on her mouthpiece and rushed in at times, successfully catching Waterson with punches in-between stance switches. The fight was bizarre and left Waterson’s future in question. Does Waterson have a title run left in her, or will Hill give her three losses in a row?

For Hill, the answer could come down to her counter right. Hill’s right hands were able to sneak through and damaged the faces of Lookboonmee and Gadelha, providing an effective answer whenever they tried to move forward with kicks. Combined with an effective feinting game and active jab, it could be a nightmare for Waterson to figure out. An underrated tool of Hill that could show up again is her intercepting elbow. Whenever Hill raised her shoulders slightly and had her elbows pointed directly in front of her, it created a collision since Gadelha’s face ran into them every time she got in too close. One can imagine how much damage this could inflict against Waterson if she attempts to close the distance recklessly for her takedowns. Hill can also remain heavy on her lead leg, expecting a kick only to counter right away. Many point fighters (and Jackson-Winklejohn students) can’t resist it as a target because they’ve been trained to aim for it specifically. After feinting and remaining still for a moment, Hill can get Waterson to move in only to counter with kicks of her own. This is exactly what Rose Namajunas did in her fight against Waterson, where she got Waterson to commit to throwing a kick before countering with punches and then finishing with a head kick.

Waterson’s path to victory is a bit easier. It’s no secret that her grappling is utilized more at this stage in her career, and Hill’s susceptibility to a prolonged ground game favors Waterson. Against Gadelha, Hill got taken down without much effort and even though she was able to get back to her feet, she had moments of vulnerability that could have been disastrous if Gadelha was focused on submissions more than landing ground and pound. Gadelha was able to hurt Hill and keep her in place whenever she threw inside and outside low kicks, something that shouldn’t be new to Waterson. Hill can also be slowed down with hooks to the head and body, as shown by Gadelha and Jessica Andrade. In particular, Andrade alternated hooks to Hill’s body and head whenever they clinched up, and even if she took some elbows off the clinch break, Hill absorbed at least a couple of hooks for her trouble.

Just because a match-up doesn’t have title implications doesn’t mean it’s a bad fight. Sometimes, it’s okay to want to see someone get punched in the face. With their consent, of course. If the person getting punched just so happens to be a blue-lives-matter Trump supporter, all the better.