Fight Study 77 – A Tale of Two Kickers (transcript) (Patreon)

At UFC Fight Night 179, Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen clashed in the main event to see who gets one step closer to a title shot in a very crowded bantamweight division. When it was all said and done, Sandhagen got the win by finishing Moraes via spinning wheel kick at 1 minute and 3 seconds of round 2. Sandhagen beat him at his own game of kicks. Kicks were a major part of how both the main and co-main event played out and deserves a bit more of analysis. Let’s start with the main event.

Sandhagen had the worst showing of his UFC career in his previous fight against Aljamain Sterling. In less than 90 seconds, Sterling walked down Sandhagen, took him down, and strangled him before Jon Anik could begin plugging in corporate sponsors. With the loss still fresh in his mind, it wouldn’t have surprised people to see a more cautious Sandhagen against the fleet-footed Moraes. Instead, Sandhagen changed gears and started the fight aggressively.

Moraes is at his best when he’s able to get reads against opponents and counter accordingly. Unlike his teammate Barboza, Moraes has decent boxing and doesn’t run straight back when pressured. The one bad habit they do seem to share (well, two) are constant movements for movement’s sake and swinging with full force when pressured too quickly. In Moraes’s case, he’s able to stay collected when opponents move forward by throwing plenty of feints to offset their timing before countering with leg and body kicks of his own. He has a great left hook that can cause real trouble if opponents march down without proper defense, and Moraes won’t hesitate to throw hard punch combinations to dissuade you from trying to stalk him. Like any fighting style, Moraes’s has its limits, and Sandhagen countered beautifully.

If you’ve had the chance to read Southpaw’s fight preview, Sandhagen’s game plan and execution should have come as no surprise. To give you a taste of what you might be missing, here’s a snippet of what was described as Sandhagen’s best chance at winning:

“Sandhagen’s path to victory lies in his ability to throw off Moraes’s timing with feints and volume while keeping him at range with kicks and long jabs. Even though Moraes is great at switch kicks, they won’t land if Sandhagen is constantly forcing him to fight off his back foot. Aldo was able to pressure Moraes effectively and limited his attacks to hooks to the body. Moraes is half the fighter moving backward as he is moving forward. Henry Cejudo also blasted Moraes with right-hand leads down the middle, wobbling him badly before setting up the TKO finish. Moraes can still be thrown off with feints, couple that with kicks from both orthodox and southpaw, and Moraes might get frustrated enough to lunge in and get countered. “   

That was more or less what Sandhagen did in this fight. Another neat trick that Sandhagen kept going back to is his tendency to either start or end combinations with low kicks. Sometimes he threw out kicks one at a time to keep Moraes at bay, other times he used them to end his combinations (definitely showing his Dutch kickboxing background). Although Sandhagen didn’t throw rear hand leads as Cejudo did, he was able to take advantage of Moraes’s stationary head by sneaking in uppercuts when Moraes had both his forearms up or left his chin unguarded.

This doesn’t mean that Moraes was beaten from the opening bell. Moraes still had moments of success whenever he got Sandhagen to attack without minding his p’s and q’s. Sandhagen’s bad habit of lower his hands while kicking got him in trouble at times as he absorbed both left hooks and overhand rights whenever he wasn’t careful. Sandhagen also absorbed plenty of leg kicks of his own. Moraes might not have been able to punt around Sandhagen’s legs as he did against Cejudo, but he threw enough that Sandhagen couldn’t move in recklessly without knowing that he’d take some damage on the way in.

In this fight, Moraes wasn’t quite able to time body kicks when Sandhagen started punching. Granted, timing the kick while your opponent is punching is incredibly hard to pull off, but Moraes is one of the best when it comes to being able to do this regularly. It could be that the feints of Sandhagen were enough to dull the reaction time of Moraes, or by withdrawing his body completely, Sandhagen was nowhere near when the kicks started coming.

The end for Moraes came when early in the second round. Sandhagen rushed towards the middle and threw hooks off the jabs and constantly switched stances to overwhelm Moraes. For someone that needs time to analyze strikes before returning with counters, this was information overload. Moraes never got a chance to prepare a proper game plan in response, and while moving backward he got hit flush with a spinning wheel kick to the head. As mentioned earlier, Moraes’s go-to response when pressured constantly is to swing back as hard as he can to either hurt his opponents or keep them from trying again. This isn’t a viable long-term strategy as it can tire out Moraes before the final round. Jose Aldo has the same problem, and it’s a weakness that others like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski exploited against him.

For Moraes, the loss sets him back in a division where it’s already crowded with fighters that are just a few wins away from a title shot. The good news is that in a weight class full of killers, Moraes is also just a couple of victories away from getting another chance to win the belt. Sandhagen is a good prospect and by all accounts a tough stylistic match-up for him. Perhaps easing him back with fan-friendly fighters could give him the break that he needs. Since he arrived from World Series of Fighting, Moraes has never fought anyone outside of the top ten. This might be a good time to give him someone towards the bottom of the top fifteen to let him get back some confidence in his striking while providing exciting match-ups. Pedro Munhoz is coming off a close split decision loss against Frankie Edgar and doesn’t have another fight lined up. If he’s unavailable, Jimmie Rivera is coming off a win and would relish the opportunity to avenge his 33-second loss.

Sandhagen is in a good spot at bantamweight. Notwithstanding the loss to Sterling, he’s built up a solid record in the UFC and is probably one more big win away from fighting for the title. This might be the perfect time to try and re-book his original match-up against Frankie Edgar to set up a #1 contender’s fight of sorts. With Sterling all but guaranteed the next title shot against Petr Yan, the winner of the Sandhagen vs Edgar fight can place himself as the next one in line. Cody Garbrandt seems determined to drop down to featherweight and claim the 125-pound title, and Moraes just got knocked out. The timing works out for all parties involved, so we’ll see if the UFC takes advantage.  

In the co-main event, Edson Barboza defeated Makwan Amirkhani by unanimous decision. It’s interesting to note that both Moraes and Barboza are teammates at American Top Team as well as former teammates under Mark Henry. Both have similarities in their styles but it’s Moraes that has fewer flaws in his striking. Luckily for Barboza, he got matched up against an opponent that didn’t take advantage of his shortcomings.

Sandhagen had no problem kicking against a fighter known for their kicks. We’ve said it many times on this podcast, but by forcing a kicker to defend or move away from oncoming kicks takes away from their game plan and gives the opponent a chance to impose theirs. Amirkhani tried to counter Barboza’s kicks with punches and ended up…getting kicked even more before countered with punches. This isn’t to say that Barboza is a born-again killer at featherweight, this victory was his first since 2018. Just before this fight, he lost close back-to-back split decisions against Dan Ige and Paul Felder. Barboza is a fighter that’s been in the UFC since 2010. That means for the past ten years, all of his fights have taken place in a major promotion, without ever having been cut, and rebuilding his record elsewhere before getting called back. Think about all the fighters that have come and gone, let alone champions that have started their careers and fizzled out. Barboza’s style has been studied extensively and figured out, but he’s still dangerous if you can’t stop his A-game.

Sandhagen and Amirkhani both faced American Top Team fighters that honed their style while under the influence of a boxing heavy instructor in Mark Henry. Moraes has better boxing and less likely to run with his back towards the cage. However, both Moraes and Barboza sprint out of position from time to time, exhausting their gas tank and leaving them vulnerable to pressure heavy fighters. Sandhagen was able to see this and plan, but Amirkhani was happy to sit back and let Barboza dictate the pace. Amirkhani was content with his rear foot behind the two black lines of the octagon for most of the fight to try and draw out the kicks from his southpaw stance. While waiting for the low kicks, Amirkhani absorbed front kicks and uppercuts to the body. Shooting in without getting Barboza to move backward usually results in stuffed takedowns and a few hooks for their trouble. A certain amount of speed and power is required to counter kicks with punches, and the truth is that not everyone can pull it off. Barboza has been doing this for a long time and has developed some best practices if he’s able to operate without getting pressured.

Amirkhani just looked a step too slow and the kicks of Barboza came quicker than anticipated. Barboza was able to drop Amirkhani with a lead right hand in the second round when he seemed to be expecting a kick. Watching Barboza on tape might give some fighters confidence in their planning. What they often don’t account for or can’t mimic in training is the speed of Barboza. Even in tough losses against Khabib Nurmagomedov or Kevin Lee, Barboza found his way back up to his feet multiple times and almost finished Lee with a head kick. Just because he’s been beaten doesn’t mean he’s not to be underestimated.

For Barboza, he has some breathing room in his new division. Amirkhani is not a ranked opponent, but this was a good win over a tough opponent. Allowing him to fight other featherweights outside the top 15 for the moment can allow him to better acclimate to 145 pounds while building up another contender in the division. If the UFC still wants to test him against ranked opponents, Sodiq Yusuff is without a dance partner. Yusuff was originally slated to fight Barboza on this card but pulled out of the fight on September 22 for reasons unknown. Re-booking the match-up might be fun and allows one of them to possibly move into the top ten.

For Amirkhani, he’s now alternated wins and losses in his last four fights. He’s by no means a shot fighter, but he hasn’t been able to recapture the magic of his first few fights when he looked like a future contender. Perhaps this is his ceiling as a competitor, or he needs to find a better way to incorporate his strikes to accommodate his wrestling base. He’s still young in his MMA career and overall 6-3 in the UFC. As of now, no one else in the top 15 at featherweight has his wrestling credentials. With a few tweaks in his game, he could be a serious threat.

Men’s divisions under welterweight tend to have the most talent, with bantamweight and featherweight having the highest number of worthwhile contenders. Just next week, Chan Sung Jung faces off against Brian Ortega in a grudge match to determine the next possible title contender.