Fight Study 79 – Khabib's Swan Song (transcript) (Patreon)

At UFC 254, Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje, we got to witness a dominant victory by Nurmagomedov in which he displayed a skill set that’s well above his peers. At 1 minute and 34 seconds of the second round, Nurmagomedov submitted Gaethje by triangle choke. The fight itself was nearly flawless from Nurmagomedov’s perspective and continued his streak of finishes since becoming champion.

Before the fight, Gaethje’s head coach Trevor Wittman and Gaethje himself talked about breaking Khabib and it didn’t pan out. For all his training, Gaethje looked like he was not ready for the kind of pressure that Nurmagomedov put on him. It’s not as if he brought in scrubs to train with either, Kamaru Usman was one of the training partners he had early on to help him with the wrestling. Gaethje himself was an NCAA Division I All American wrestler that finished with a record of 191-9. Gaethje was also one of the wrestlers handpicked by Wittman to train with Georges St. Pierre back when he was still a college wrestler. This is clearly a guy that has been at the highest level of MMA, even before he officially got involved.

When the fight started, Gaethje wisely kept his distance and moved in only to withdraw. This was part of the game plan that he used to frustrate Tony Ferguson, and it was good to see him try and implement a strategy that worked. Gaethje bounced in and out and moved laterally while focusing on leg kicks. When Nurmagomedov rushed in, a counter right hand by Gaethje caught him. Nurmagomedov also had success with his jabs. Gaethje is focused on keeping his base and hands low to prevent the takedowns, giving Nurmagomedov an easier target to aim at. Even though Gaethje connected with the low kicks, Nurmagomedov kept moving forward. That kind of pressure caused Gaethje to overreact and swing first, only to hit air and miss. Adding to this exhaustive effort, Nurmagomedov took a chapter out of Robert Whittaker’s book and threw plenty of front kicks from the rear leg to Gaethje’s midsection. Not only did this sap Gaethje’s gas tank, but it also kept Gaethje upright and open for future takedowns.

Once Nurmagomedov got Gaethje moving backward, he was able to open up his offense even further. Nurmagomedov started rushing in with flying knees, overhand rights, and lead left hooks. Gaethje literally ran at times to get out of the way, further tiring himself and unable to go back to the feints and lateral movements from earlier. Outside of the odd counters that found their mark, Gaethje was a fighter that was simply reacting instead of implementing his game plan.

While everyone is focused on the upper body, we want to remind our audience to take a closer look at the feet.

The first takedown that Nurmagomedov landed on Gaethje was a result of the pressure he was able to assert. Constantly moving forward got Gaethje with his back close to the fence. With nowhere to go, Gaethje tried to shift to his right, only to briefly cross his feet. This moment was all that Nurmagomedov needed as he landed a double leg takedown against the fence.  

Why do we only consider “good” footwork from a boxing or kickboxing perspective? Wrestling has plenty of footwork involved but it almost seems like an afterthought for most analysts. It creates a bias where if the striker can land punches while evading, it’s good footwork. If the grappler can get a takedown without absorbing punishment, it’s simply because he’s a good grappler. Anyway, back to the fight.

Once Nurmagomedov tied up Gaethje’s feet, he started working on putting his knee in between Gaethje’s legs for a leg weave. From there, Nurmagomedov drove his right knee towards the mat to break down Gaethje’s left leg. Feeling pressure on his knees and hips, Gaethje turned his hips back towards the center only to get mounted. If this movement looked familiar, it’s because it’s a favorite of Demian Maia, and he used this set up to get mount against the likes of Neil Magny and Ryan Laflare. For old school fans, think of what BJ Penn did to Jens Pulver in their first fight. The round ended soon after, but not before Nurmagomedov attempted an armbar and switched to a bicep slicer.

In round 2, it was more of the same from both combatants. Gaethje would stun Nurmagomedov with counters and low kicks, but Nurmagomedov continued to press forward with his strikes until he manages to get a takedown. Like Eddie Alvarez, Nurmagomedov timed a low kick and went right into Gaethje’s hips, taking his back before transitioning to mount. Without wasting any time, not even strikes, Nurmagomedov went right for a mounted triangle before smoothly rolling to his back. The ref seemed to have missed multiple taps from Gaethje as he went to sleep. With that win, Nurmagomedov secured 29 straight wins in a row, and arguably without a single lost round. Why the “arguably”? The only round that Nurmagomedov ever officially lost was the third round against McGregor, but that doesn’t matter since he finished him in the very next round. How did McGregor win that round? Better striking?

This brings up the question, what constitutes “good” striking in MMA? Let’s go back to an interview that Joe Schilling, veteran kickboxer and current MMA fighter, did with Jon Joe O’Regan of Bloodyelbow.com. In the interview, he discussed getting Nick Diaz prepared for his fight against Anderson Silva and how Silva would do in a straight kickboxing match against him.

Schilling said, and I quote, “I think it would be embarrassing for him in there with me. The more I have studied Anderson Silva for this fight camp of Nick's the more I think he is good at kickboxing for MMA but in a professional kickboxing fight he would get wasted.”

That last sentence should be in the back of everyone’s mind when they compare fighters’ skillsets. George St Pierre’s wrestling wouldn’t hold up at the NCAA level but who cares? He’s able to take all his opponents down and control them on the ground. It didn’t matter if they had more accolades and have been wrestling all their lives, St. Pierre repeatedly took them down and systematically broke them down, round by round. In his only appearance at Abu Dhabi Combat Club, St. Pierre got caught in a flying armbar by Leonardo Santos in the quarter-finals of the -77 kg weight class. Does this mean that Santos would have beaten St. Pierre if the rules were changed to MMA? Most likely not. St. Pierre retired as a dominant welterweight champion and one-time middleweight champion. Santos is 40 years old and still competing in the UFC and has never made it to the top five of his weight class. Comparing striking and grappling in MMA against their counterparts in standalone sports isn’t fair. Good MMA boxers might get dusted up in the ring, and pure boxers could find their legs chewed up and taken down in the cage. The comparison stops working real quick. As the old saying goes, it’s apples to oranges.

And besides, who has given Khabib real trouble on the feet? Ultimately, does it matter if he’s winning? 

But that was also the controversial round where Conor won because of constant glove grabbing, illegal strikes, fence grabbing, and pulling of the shorts. Which Khabib kept complaining about, and which is part of the reason why he came out so hot in round 4 and finished him but was still very upset at the end of the fight and was yelling at Conor. Even Joe Rogan mentioned how the round shouldn’t go to Conor because, “Well, Conor was grabbing the gloves. That’s illegal. The hooking of the gloves is illegal.”

McGregor was literally was literally grabbing the gloves and hitting Khabib, and referee Herb Dean didn’t do anything. The fight was over two years ago so everybody forgot, but at the time, this was reported on by all of MMA media and there were clips all over social media. So the round Khabib lost comes with a big asterisk.

Over a year ago, we spoke with David Christian from the Modern Martial Artist and he mentioned specifically how Nurmagomedov has excellent striking because he does everything from one phase of combat rather than switching from one phase to another. He has one combat range where he can strike, clinch, and attempt takedowns. He doesn’t have to shift from the “striking” phase to the “wrestling” phase and worry about getting caught in between those transitions. Keep in mind that Nurmagomedov did all this with a broken foot, suffered three weeks before the fight. This makes his victory all the more impressive and puts him up in the pound for pound best argument.

Just to clear things up, pound for pound is different from Greatest Of All Time (GOAT). Pound for pound is an official ranking of ACTIVE fighters. This is why Floyd Mayweather Jr is removed from the one in boxing despite being undefeated and widely considered one of the best to ever lace up the 8 oz. gloves. On the night that Nurmagomedov beat Gaethje, he should be considered the pound for pound best UFC champion. Who are some other contenders for the pound for pound title?

Nurmagomedov, Max Holloway, Robert Whittaker, and to a lesser extent, Tony Ferguson cleared out their divisions before becoming champions. Do their wins before the title suddenly no longer count? Plus, they’re all in competitive weight classes that are full of killers.

Nurmagomedov specifically was held back because the promotion seems less than keen on promoting grapplers (unless they have a good striking base or come from pro-wrestling). Compounding all this was his long string of injuries that have plagued his career. The UFC also created a lot of its messes in their pound for pound/GOAT debates with Conor McGregor jumping from the UFC to do boxing and held up two separate divisions by winning titles and never defending them. This wasted some prime years of competition from the 145- and 155-pound weight class. Nurmagomedov and Holloway cleared out their respective divisions even before becoming champion. All that’s left for Nurmagomedov are rematches or people he would have steamrolled.

People forget that Jon Jones got offered the title shot as a replacement fighter and was able to ensure that all his match-ups after were title fights. After four years and seven fights, Jones got offered a title shot. Israel Adesanya got offered an interim title fight after 5 matches. Fucking Brock Lesnar got offered a title fight after ONE win in the UFC. Are we going to argue that if Nurmagomedov got the same opportunity back in 2015, we wouldn’t have seen five years of dominance?

As far as GOAT, since it’s unofficial, this is where different arguments come in. As mentioned before, the criteria range from person to person.

What constitutes GOAT? What criteria are you using?

I would personally consider someone the GOAT based on three main criteria: competitiveness of the division, how dominant the fighter has been against their peers, and a clean record that isn’t marked by asterisks. By this measure, I would put Georges St. Pierre at the top. Not only did he clean out his division, but he also won all the rematches that came back his way. He did this in a division where almost all his competitors could have been long-reigning champions if he was out of the picture, and without any major scandals (greasing allegations aside).

And not to mention all his shorts grabbing, which is how he snapped Michael Bisping’s cup in their title fight.

Demetrius Johnson is a close second, but his level of competition isn’t quite there. What also hurts him from taking the crown is that when he finally had a legitimate rival in Henry Cejudo, he opted to switch promotions altogether. Not retire or take time off, but simply picked up his ball and went to a different court. Anderson Silva and Jon Jones aren’t high on my list due to their multiple positive tests for PED’s. I understand that performance-enhancing drug use is rampant in the sport and that a clean test just means that they were never caught. Even with that said, the fact that they couldn’t even hide their steroid use does put an asterisk on all their wins. Nurmagomedov is third on my list, mostly due to the time off due to various injuries and the Ferguson match-up never happening. Daniel Cormier and Amanda Nunes round out my top five, but your criteria and ranking might differ. Hell, it might include PRIDE mainstays like Fedor Emelianenko and Kazushi Sakuraba. 

In regards to Nurmagomedov, for one night, he cemented himself as the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC, and shot up many people’s list of GOAT fighters. Now with his retirement, it’s safe to say that we won’t be seeing someone like him again for a long time. There is no one currently in the roster that has come close to Nurmagomedov’s abilities on the ground and level of dominance. We might not get any future fights, but the past match-ups he’s been part of gives us years of study and analysis. It’s exciting to consider what the next evolution of ground fighting will look like, and Nurmagomedov is a huge reason of why it’s made such progress.

In the co-main event, Robert Whittaker beat Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision, 29-28 across all three scorecards. Despite a thrilling third round where both looked like they could have ended the fight, Whittaker was able to remain steady and continue his campaign for another title shot. Cannonier’s leg kicks were his best offensive tools, but Whittaker’s jabs and right straights were just too much.  

Whittaker looked bad against Adesanya, but that’s not being fair to Whittaker. As mentioned earlier in the pound for pound/GOAT clarification, Whittaker cleaned up the division before fighting for the title. He wasn’t able to get establish a championship run due to injuries and being given the opportunity later on in his career.

Kind of in the same situation as Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway, Robert Whittaker was held up from his title shot while Michael Bisping was fighting the likes of Dan Henderson, who might not even been in the top 10 at the time of the fight, and then unranked middleweight Georges St-Pierre got a title shot before number one contender Robert Whittaker.

Whittaker has now won fights against two tough opponents and is just a few shy of clearing out the top ten in his division…again.

Whittaker might not win in a rematch against Adesanya, but who else is there? Whittaker could suffer from the same problem as Daniel Cormier: good enough to beat everyone else, but has lost against the current champ, switching out Jones & Stipe Miocic for Adesanya. Or he could surprise everyone and beat Adesanya in a re-match, setting up a nice trilogy in the middleweight division. We haven’t had one of those in a while.  

As for Cannonier, he looked great against everyone else, but Whittaker was undefeated at middleweight for a reason. Over time, Whittaker was able to either time the leg kicks or still find a way to sneak in jabs and straights as Cannonier remained stationary. The good news is that Cannonier didn’t look completely lost in there, and is likely just a few more victories away from a title shot himself. Paulo Costa is coming off a pretty humiliating loss against Adesanya and would like nothing more than to trade punches with a willing partner. Cannonier might be the perfect match-up and we get to see how technical of a fight he can make it for Costa.

UFC 254 appears to be the last great card the UFC has for the rest of the year. Sure, there are other title fights scheduled for November and December, but none have the intrigue of a card like this. If this event has taught us anything, it’s that dominance can take many forms, but it’s not forever. Sometimes it’s the age that stops fighters, and other times its bad style match-ups. Every once in a while though, we get to see someone walk away on their terms while at the top of their career. That in itself is amazing. This sport is filled with cautionary tales and tragic endings, and this fight wasn’t without its share of tearjerkers. From Nurmagomedov’s father passing from COVID-19 complications to Gaethje promising to help retire his parents with his earnings, this fight tugged at our heartstrings. We should always remember the journey of the fighters just as much as their fights. As Nurmagomedov reminds us, tomorrow is never guaranteed and there’s more to life than just fighting in a cage.