Mixed Picks: UFC 271 (Patreon)

By Sam (@LiberationistMA)

This is going to be different from the typical fight picks you're used to seeing. Rather than picking every fight, I cover the fights I'm knowledgeable about.

UFC 271 | 2.12.2022

Middleweight championship: Israel Adesanya (c) beats Robert Whittaker

Since their last meeting in 2019. Whittaker has beaten Till, Cannonier, and Gastelum. In that same time, Adesanya has beaten Romero, Costa, then moved up to 205 and lost to champion Jan Błachowicz, then defended his belt against Vettori. One x-factor is whether moving up to light heavyweight and coming back down hurt Adesanya in some way. But it's hard to say since his style doesn't require lots of speed or power. Adesanya relies on defensive movement, precision, and exits. Whittaker relies on offense and speed, mostly moving in straight lines. It's this clash of styles that makes it hard for me to pick Whittaker. I am certain he will look to wrestle in this fight, but Adesanya has the better chin, longer reach, and better defense, with ever-improving takedown defense. He's hard to take down in the same way Anderson Silva was hard to take down, he's defensive and low-volume so he sees your takedowns coming. Especially over five rounds, hard to see Whittaker not accumulating damage. He's never been the same after his two fights with Romero.

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis beats Tai Tuivasa

It's a fight between sluggers and I can very much see Tuivasa winning but Lewis has more big fight experience, has fought tougher opponents, hits harder, has a tougher chin, and is more patient. Tuivasa will want to fight in the pocket, where he's at his best. And who knows if all the tough fights Lewis has had are catching up to him. It's heavyweight so careers go up and down.

Middleweight: Jared Cannonier beats Derek Brunson

Cannonier is really hard to hold down, has a good gas tank, and is really dangerous on the feet. Brunson has improved his striking to where he can use his wrestling better. Whoever wins this will probably get the next title shot, but think Cannonier will end up doing more damage.

Men's bantamweight: Kyler Phillips beats Marcelo Rojo

Phillips is young, already really good and only getting better. This on paper is a big mismatch.

Lightweight: Bobby Green beats Nasrat Haqparast

I see this as a boxing match with Green being the better boxer.

Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski beats Jared Vanderaa

Seems like the perfect match-up for Arlovski to win a decision with experience and craft.

Women's flyweight: Casey O'Neill beats Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi doesn't seem like she even wants to be there and she's really shopworn at this point. Looks like a fight to build O'Neill up. (Also, despite Modafferi's nerdiness, is a chud.)

Lightweight: Renato Moicano beats Alexander Hernandez

I see this being an awkward, tentative, hard-to-score fight with Moicano doing enough to win.

Light heavyweight: Carlos Ulberg beats Fabio Cherant

Ulberg is supposed to be City Kickboxing's 205 prospect and this fight looks custom-made to give him a win.