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Episode 273: The Dragon Rises: Tiger's Paw (Patreon)

Published:
2023-03-06 14:05:05
Edited:
2024-03-03 19:44:58
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

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Content

Long March? But it just started! We head down Peking’s way to look at why the US keeps shooting all the Balloons, our situationship with Taiwan, and why every US politician can’t stop talking about China.

Files

Comments

Zhandra

First 🇨🇳🫡

Colin Andrews

Been needing Brace and Liz to tell me what to think of this topic for awhile now.

Connor Green

I want to go on a field trip to Hainan island

Toddy Todd

I feel bad for the Chinese guy whose friendship balloons the govt keeps shooting down

Nolan

海南岛好漂亮

Nolan

Let 1000 Flowers Bloom and 1000 balloons fly high and free

Mads

Common China W

Eileen S

Easily top 3 intros thus far

Michael S. Judge

the two big headlines in the local paper today were ARMS DEALERS PROFITEERING IN UKRAINE WAR and WITH NEW CHINESE AIR FORCE, U.S. NEEDS MORE 'TOP GUNS'!

Go'Thrak

There better be some Lin Biao in this episode

NYCM&AHole

MR PRESIDENT, WE CANNOT ALLOW A BALLOON GAP! “mein führer, I can valk!”

Natalie

FINALLY i have been waiting for an episode like this, thank you guys can't wait to hear it 🤠🤠

Natalie

guys sorry we have decided to defund the department of agriculture to fund the war in ukraine

Nick

A+ intro

Kamran Husain

i smoke and i could easily do a long march in less time than a year

Catherine E Temple

Omfg… so funny. Thanks y’all. Best balloon coverage thus far. Hot takes🔥

absoluteboi

the cold open was too good

Brian Krebs

How about the action in Ukraine as evidence for the first mover capacity of China in the geopolitical realm; Russian trade position drastically weakened in favor of Chinese interests, but no real threat of seizure by the opponent who has been curated by western partners, basically allowing China to seize Russian energy assets for allocation to developing partner states at zero cost, weakening rivals, and implicitly constructing and altercation between political camps that could be unilaterally resolved by Chinese edict, yet demonstrating a responsibility of management by not doing so. China really do be flexin on us.

Maura Willey

Interview Carl Zha or Radio Free Amanda on China/Africa

Carver Eller

What was that movie brace recommended? "the chinese side"? Can't find it

No1BASICCHANNELFAN

Had to backspin that intro funniest shit I’ve heard on here in a minute 😂😂

SF

I second this. These two are great.

Nolan

Yeah they want to broker this peace, not as a ‘Russian ally,’ but as a global superpower that treats the US, the EU, and Russia all equally. They’re smart to pursue that angle, and Blinken’s balloons were a weak dumb way to try and counter that

Brendan Kneeland

What’s important is the balloons we made along the way 🥹

Brian Krebs

Honestly, I think it's in China's interest to keep America as a theoretical threat, encouraging USA to play whiphand over the EU, S America, Russia, India, and NATO. When you have a bad guy that you can also boss around (a la USA to USSR), you get to do what you want and also be the hero coming to the rescue.

TrueAnonPod

Fellas lemme give you some advice: Skip Miami. Forget Puerto Rico. This summer, take your lady to Mischief Reef 😏

Graham Hoese

The Bear and the Dragon is apparently a Tom Clancy book

Sam Register

Liz getting annoyed about the media is so fucking dumb

Hello!

They should send you to the Hague for that intro stinger

Tan Tan

ok what if we did like a dracula collar? like the kind vampires got on their capes that go up to their ears?

Emma

I was in my building’s laundry room when I heard “the penis is the wiener of the man” and had to fake a coughing fit and leave the room

Dr. TJ Eckelberg

Jokic has a hyperdunk PE (player edition) with his own logo on it. But Luka Doncic has his own pro model shoe with Jordan. I think he’s the only white boy with his own shoe

Pelican Grief

🗣📣THE PENIS IS THE WEINER OF THE MAN

K8

Over the holidays my father subtly suggested to me that my roommate—who is an intl student from China—might be a spy and let me tell you…the balloon event has not helped him be less of a weirdo about it

K8

Absolutely delightful moment where Liz just goes “…do you have tourette’s?”

K H

I've gotta push back on everything Brace is saying here. Planes go out of radar contact crossing the ocean. A metal plane. There is basically 0 chance they kept track of the balloon from the Pacific to the Atlantic especially if it went over Canada(and I assume it did since they showed it by Alaska first). They knew the balloon came from China almost certainly because China informed the U.S. about it. There are launches twice per day of similar such balloons. So how do we or they know they shot down the same balloon as opposed to it popping over the ocean or Canada or anywhere really? Additionally, how does anyone know how big the balloon was, what was the method to measure it? Regular rawinsondes are pretty big once they get up there, though perhaps not as big, or maybe they are, I don't know because I never saw an explanation of measurement vs someone eyeballing it and goin "yep. Godzilla sized." I bring that up because it's the kind of thing you'd use to scare people. It's not just a balloon...it's a large balloon, larger than normal. 100' pretty scary right? No? 200' how about that? Ever see anything that big before you fuckin hog? You scared now!? I'm willing to bet the balloon popped and they made a Santa tracker until they thought it plausible to shoot one of the balloons(rawinsondes) launched near the Carolinas. It landed in the water and the area was blockaded so no part of the wreckage could be salvaged by anyone besides the military. CNN was selling the shit out of this story with no counterfactual, no both sides, nothing. 100% this is an op drummed up by some dead eyed psycho. Oh and I was subject to this wave off CNN propaganda and they were already saying to expect to possibly find American components in the debris. So they were already setting themselves up so sell any new information the exact same way.

EaZy E

Snorted so hard I did something to my throat when I heard ‘the adolf hitler fund’

Sarah Jay

I am so glad I learned this today. Often wondered about the penis

Matt Pierce

Brace take the Xi pill brother

John Reeves

Thank you Liz for putting into podcast form the rage and bafflement I've felt about the whole balloon hullabaloo. And not just that but it's crazy how many apropos of nothing articles I've seen running through headlines answering the question nobody was asking: could the US defeat Chinese subs in Taiwan or whatever batshit thing they come up with. Like, they're all written like it's this thing we've all been asking ourselves. Who would win in a China-US nuclear exchange? It's just so clearly media and others trying to inject this discussion into the world and get people ready for it. Get them foaming at the mouth. That's all this balloon bullshit was too. It's insane.

Lucas

“Weiner of the man” is the best definition of penis ever

Jason Weiser

bear and the dragon was a tom clancy book lmao

Lindsey Bertsch

incredible Liz episode, we are so blessed

Chris

Imma have a war with general tso tonight yummy

GL

the semiconductor chat was tough

Charles Thornton

Top tier into, hitler fund had me laughing in public.

VanLeft

please drop a "penis is the wiener of the man" shirt.

Alex Poniz

Love Liz and Brace but their military analyses have consistently been off the mark. Recall their comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine around this time in 2022.

Michael S. Judge

I mean, look, #1, you weren't using it, and #2, agriculture in Ukraine is a famously safe and mistake-free process

TrueAnonPod

The only claim here we make is that the Chinese navy would win; I based this off an assessment I read in the U.S. Naval Institute

justdave

I believe the year of the smile has officially ended, and in recognition of that, personally, I will no longer use this forum to tell bad jokes (for sake of the balloons)

justdave

Nobody has a crystal ball

Alex Poniz

Read the report. It seems to just be an analysis by a single retired Navy captain, but it makes some good points. Still, I’m inclined to lean towards the conclusions of the report I linked (and it’s from CSIS not RAND, my bad) which seem a little more robust in their analysis. But hey, who knows. I don’t. And either way whatever would happen would be a shitshow for everyone involved.

Alex Poniz

Thanks, I’ll read it later.

Alex Poniz

Also, invading Taiwan would be an amphibious operation across a 100+ mile strait of a wealthy technologically and industrially advanced island with a population of 24 million and a heavily urbanized coast and a rugged mountainous interior, and a military nearly 2 million strong if you count reservists. Doesn’t matter how you slice it this would be a nightmare for everyone involved, including China.

justdave

*holds four headed catfish* -you not buying?

I am become reply guy

The thing you guys have to understand is that the Chinese think in terms of centuries…

boop

27:58 for the weiner of the man clip

Maura Willey

liz never said what her woody harrelson on SNL theory was- please share here

GL

CSIS and the CCP are having a public moment in canada at the moment, federal election interference again. We trade with them a lot of food, food inputs and raw materials.

Shiv

how do I apply to Moviephone U?

Shiv

just Bay Area vibes

K H

Also last thing on the bAlLoOn. China could just fly an airplane, like a propeller driven plane over pretty much anywhere the balloon went and it would be legal. They could simply hire an American pilot or a Chinese immigrant pilot could rent a plane and they could intercept whatever information was limited to earth's atmosphere. I'm sure Epstein's pilots would do it. However I'm inclined to believe any super secret information would be transmitted via a shielded wire. Outside of a warzone or some places where travel is tightly restricted there is no reason to use a balloon for spycraft. The U.S. is unique in that general aviation is widely available, so of ANY place to not use a balloon...it would be the U.S.A. simply because you could just rent a plane. It's also not illegal to just launch a balloon(tmk I'm not balloon boy) anyway. If anyone knows of someone being arrested for launching balloons that don't damage anything please leave a reply.

Doug Cartel

the reason america obsessed over the balloon and its 'military capabilities' because the only thing americans can think about is the next war

K H

It's the US invading shit all the time. The basis for any game should be the US pig headedly swinging its dick into another country as they have always done. Conveniently they almost never do this anywhere sophisticated anti air defenses are present. The one possible exception being Iraq where it seemed they either were unwilling to use them or didn't have a strategy to use them and didn't activate the radar needed to fire them accurately because apparently the radar equipment was co located with their ground personnel. I think it was Kosovo(?) where an F117 was shot down and another damaged by less sophisticated ant air systems. The basis for modern warfare is long range targeting and low visibility. Low visibility gets a lot harder if you're the one attacking. I also take these games with a grain of salt. Ultimately they are going to be carried out and judged by the same bobble heads that persisted in Vietnam and Afghanistan and kept saying they were winning or redefining terms to make themselves look like they were. Of course there were losses in Vietnam as well but that was to a newly liberated and mostly impoverished fighting force which is many times inferior to modern day China. The only consistent success I've seen are the low flying surprise hit and run attacks Israel carries out on its still less advanced neighbors. Israel was also perhaps the first to employ drones to collect location data on ground stations to attack and disable early detection abilities. I think an invasion of China would have to start with an attack on the satellites to stand any chance at all.

Shiv

Penis Has Computer Chip In It

Shiv

So we could save federally protected wilderness by simply not putting computer chips in every single thing??

Louie Van Patten

yo trigger warning if you gonna start that hard with the funny, I almost choked

Bobby Volcano

All-time cold open. Liz, thank you for bringing the heat on the stupidity of the balloons. I also am still angry about how dumb the balloon was, but then again, growing up my family watched Amadeus literally every single Sunday morning for like 10 years straight so maybe the movie creates a stupid jingoistic discourse sensitivity.

Caitria

dude china stockpiles telepaths thats how they followed it

TrueAnonPod

Yeah who knows if they could take Taiwan—I do think they could probably hit our fleet pretty hard, which is what I have in mind. The US is trying to game this out for future planning too, including the creation of smaller Marine Littoral Regiments for basically this purpose. Who knows how either Taiwan or China’s army would actually fare though, but China just has such a massive capacity for both building and maintaining a navy now that imo it’s a done deal in terms of sea combat

Colin S

Does anyone else think they try to pronounce it “Anton Abe Lincoln”

Marcus

I wonder if Liz's theory about Woody Harrelson on SNL has anything to do with him claiming to be a Marxist.

Alex Poniz

I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal, but I agree that it’s become a very competitive environment for sure 👍

Talcum Gladwell

Best cold open in the history of the show

rutjake

the penis is the wiener of the man

mya

LAUGHING MANIACALLY at the open

Zzz

Soft power approach works for them. Building airports, bridges, etc in Africa for example. Funny that France recently pulled out of colonizing/ “development” in Africa

Communist Public Accountant

Y’all are out of your mind if you think we don’t want to hear more about the balloon. Let’s do this!

Harrison Sanchez

Brace: So I was reading the note in my shoe - which was the style at the time!

Harrison Sanchez

I mean I like that film a lot too but not like that. Also wtf your fam.

Bobby Volcano

I had two heart attacks a week before turning 35 and even though it's been several years now I still believe a little that watching 35yo Wolfy go out like that week after week during my formative years was a contributing factor.

I am become reply guy

I’m pretty sure penis is the wiener of the man was a John Lennon album

Brian Long

Fort Bragg series when

Andrew Irwin

Penis, the weiner of the man

Nic Bodiford

If Liz starts a financial advice Patreon, I’ll subscribe.

Nic Bodiford

Also Brace’s “n-n-n-nuked” was hysterical

Sifl

Russia's nominal GDP is smaller than Italy's and once the effects of the war kick in will probably be close to dropping out of the top 15. On a per capita basis, Russian GDP ranks 57 in the world, behind Croatia and Romania. China's GDP per capita ranks 79th just behind Iraq. Russia's armed forces are currently struggling to take a small city about the size of Canton, Ohio after nine months of fighting. China has made very impressive economic gains, but is still a country that is rife with corruption and incompetence. Just look at the Evergrande crisis. The Chinese government ordered Evergrande to demolish 39 highrise apartment towers after the company ran out of money to complete construction. There are great videos on tik tok/instagram of the demolitions. And Evergrande still hangs in the balance with bondholders recently failing to come to agreement with its bond holders on how to move forward. A judge could order Evergrande to be wound up, leaving $300 billion in bad debt. That could have ripple effects across the Chinese economy and will certainly be line one in any political risk analysis written up for foreign investors. China is now a power that rivals the US. But I would not bet on this being China's century absent some sweeping reforms in how China is governed and how people do business in China. China is really not open to foreign investment the way western countries are. And despite all of its economic growth, China still lives or dies based on its exports to the west. China has largely failed to create enough internal consumer demand to sustain its economy without massive exports to the west. This is because Chinese companies are forced to sell products internally at a fraction of the cost they get for the same products when they sell them to the west. China is addicted to an export economy that subsidizes its low wage internal economy and shows no signs of escaping that pattern.

Kevin Lindsay

I get this argument I just wince when the reason stated is novel weapons systems like it sounded in the episode. This is a much better explanation than saying hypersonic missiles. Way more inclined to believe fleet size over novel weapons that haven't really had a battle test. If there is one thing the US knows it's new weapons systems failing at their intended purpose when actually put into combat situations.

Bernard Babić

The balloon shall forever remain in my heart.

Ian H

I mean, I think fleet size+industrial capacity to replace losses+proximity is nigh-impossible for the US to overcome conventionally. But this is honestly academic, because it's hard to believe that Pentagon psychos could lose many carriers without letting the nukes fly.

Permanent Lurker

LIZ!! No wonder I have such affection for you if Amadeus was one of your favorite movies as a kid. That's still one of my top movies of all time :)

Blank

Literal lol

Joel

yo this opening lmfao

Jake

Unfortunately Kyries go hard

Zzz

propagandist vibes

Hardcore Virgin

I woke this morn with this phrase echoing in my head and had to find the episode it was from and leave it as a comment or comment below one who already had.

cogandbal

It was a chinese balloon

Kimble

balloon ass

Pink&TealCore

'With generous funding from the Adolf Hitler Fund' is such a banger.