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TTRPG Sales are Shrinking (Extended) (Patreon)

Published:
2024-04-01 17:47:02
Imported:
2026-06
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Videos

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This an emergency upload. It will air on Wednesday or Thursday on Youtube. Enjoy.

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Previews only

D&D Sales Shrinking

Comments

Bagel-Man

Excited to watch Professor!

Drago Russo

Well it is very sad to hear that the more demolition and less exposition has not fared well. It was one of my favorite videos of yours. Very well done and super pertinent.

Lee Dunning

I love hearing your PoV, Professor. You're passionate about games, but have a logical mind that allows you to sort through the overblown hype and the doom and gloom. Since I've started watching your channel, my enthusiasm for RPGs has grown and helped encourage me to check out some of the less commercially well-known games out there. Thanks so much.

Beardy B.

Thanks for the video. And I agree, there's likely some significant data to consider in TRPG sales that isn't in that set. A tangent on GenCon: As you said about the limit to markets, I wanted to add that GenCon also can't grow forever. Regardless of hobby saturation, GenCon will reach a point where it is so large and crowded that it won't have retention of attendees. And there's no reason to stop selling badges after housing is saturated. My point is, GenCon may not be as useful an indicator as in the past, as it's internal pressures come to bear.

John Doe

I also thought that the More Demolition Less Exposition video was spectacularly helpful. Inspired me to rewrite several of my box text elements. Strange that it didn't hit hard.

Firstspear

Great discussion PDM - I always appreciate the perspective on the greater category as a whole. I wanted to share some thoughts on the numbers (I'm a market research professional). First, I don't know much about the source of the sales figures, but if it is survey based, those numbers can vary widely from actual numbers. That said, if they reached out to distributors and have some store/actual numbers from retailers they could be close. AMZ, as a whole, is worth about 20-30% of sales of a category in my experience. A significant portion of the WotC sales drop would be from having to anniversary prior year's sales (the new basis) - so if you are coming off +20% years it is a tall target to hit. I agree that other factors (competition, holding out for new edition etc) will also be a factor. I'm guessing that the total category is likely flat to slightly down, with WotC losing share to the long tail from competition & independents. I'm happy to see new players & companies enter the category and don't expect it to implode - diversification is great. Just think, anecdotally, we grew up in a time when TTRPGs were the stuff of basements and a small fraction of the population. The appeal of Fantasy / Sci-Fi and acceptance of the hobby has never been higher. If you look at the number of content creators that focus on the hobby (and all the play videos) I think that our hobby is strong and will see good days ahead.

MrGunn

Dear PDM: Yep, the dip in sales is to be expected for a myriad of reasons. I think the largest are; the continued monetization and inshitification of D&D as a game by Wizbros, their text book business case studies in how to ruin a brand e.g. the OGL and Pinkerton scandals, and their total lack of innovation. Wizbros has been tilling this field of woe for a long time and the crappy sales figures and stock value are the fruits of their poor decisions. I also agree the old guard has been marginalized by Wizbros, and us old straight white guys whom they so badly want out of the hobby are the ones with the jobs and money. I agree, digital is where D&D is headed and the CEO is probably telling everyone just hold off, our digital transformation payout is just around the corner. The problem is: collect underpants + ? = profits, is not a business strategy. Sure Wizbros will release phone apps and the VTT and some other digital games, which may or may not connect with the masses. The problem is Wizbros core competency is not software, whose customers are notoriously fickle, no, Wizbros are an old school manufactured goods company. Further, rather than taking risks and innovating, (even Games-Workshop innovates more) Wizbros are just recycling existing IP. So given their leadership's less then deft handling of things so far, I really don't see mass profits from a digital transformation. One area where I am going to disagree with you is, DungeonCrafts's D&D 'click bait' to advice / crafting YouTube video ratio. I counted and going back 30+ videos, the ratio of 'click bait' videos to advice / crafting articles is about 50/50. I wish this ratio were closer to 70/30 in favor advice/crafting videos. Thought provoking video and as always I enjoy hearing your thoughts and opinions, which is why I remain a top tier patron :). Enjoy your day off, not doing whatever it is you do. Best, MrGunn PS: Firstspear brought up a good point about depressed D&D sales ahead of the new release.

MrGunn
>>133983114

@Firstspear "A significant portion of the WotC sales drop would be from having to anniversary prior year's sales (the new basis)" I agree this is part of it, however Wizbros stock and sales have been in the dumpster for a while now.

Walter

Three things: 1 - It would have been nice to see the actual revenue estimates for each game. It's a solid bet that D&D is still the frontrunner by a country mile. 2 - It mentions that direct sales aren't counted. A large chunk of Paizo's business is done through book subscriptions. They have divided up parts of their product line and offer free PDFs with their subs. The only drawback is shipping and handling is kinda high. 3 - They counted Kickstarters? It feels like I've been spending more money on Kickstarters than my normal gaming purchases (I really need to cut back....help) . The reaction to the OGL debacle feels like "The Launching of 1000 Kickstarters."

Firstspear
>>133983114

Oh yeah - it's rarely one factor. Their alienation of customer base help, as do other factors. But from experience, that will be a big piece. If you start with $100 in sales, then do +20% Y2, now your new basis is $120 - Y3 you need to do $144 to have the same growth. Hard to sustain that kind of growth (especially as you pointed out, with other factors)

Jeff Krus

Great one!! I too feel like there is something missing but only time will tell..

Keith

Is there any shift from fantasy to sci-fi? Free League's Blade Runner game raised SEK 16,513,148 (roughly USD 1.5M)

Mariah Holt

We know that sales of 5E books will drop when an announcement is made of a new version. So WoTC could be making/selling general items: art books, novels, lore books, maps, mini’s, audio books, history items.

MrGunn
>>133987725

@Walter Wooten I agree the data feels incomplete, I wonder how ICv2 acquired/calculated these numbers.

NØKKEN_WAITS

Very frustrating to know the demolition video didn't perform as well. I loved it.

Ben Waters

I seriously question that "Warhammer 40k" is the number 6 game. For those who don't know Cubicle 7 is currently publishing 4 different warhammer RPGs, two of which are in the warhammer 40k setting. From everything I can tell, Warhammer fantasy roleplay 4th edition is significantly outselling Wrath and Glory and Imperium Maledictum. I wouldn't be surprised if they just added all the warhammer games together and put it under one "Warhammer 40k" category.