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We’re joined by wonk whiz-kid @ettingermentum to discuss some of his recent elections analysis. We take a look at how today’s arraignment might affect Trump’s 2024 outlook, the electoral history of transphobia for the GOP, and analyze the art of losing from some recent Democratic stars.

Follow @ettingermentum on Twitter

And subscribe to his very good Substack here: https://ettingermentum.substack.com/

And keep an eye out for his livestreams at: http://twitch.tv/zevonmentum

NYC! We are doing a special Movie Mindset mini-series launch party & screening of a 35 mm print of John Carpenter’s “In The Mouth of Madness” on Thursday, April 27th at the Roxy Cinema, followed by a special talk back pod recording with Will & Hesse. Tickets here: https://www.roxycinemanewyork.com/screenings/chapo-trap-house-movie-mindset-presents-in-the-mouth-of-madness-35mm/

And submit any questions for a Hell on Earth wrap up stream and/or ep over at calls@chapotraphouse.com

Files

Comments

Wario Argento

Frist! (I'm back in 2003 and commenting on Eschaton)

Mark

The cityafreaks guy here to impart us with his wisdom

Ben

Holy Fucking shit

Poppy Chulo

This is a big room! I walked in here and looked around and said this is big, it's fantastic. Folks, there's trays of slop for everyone, it's fantastic. We love our slop don't we folks?

Brent in TX

who was the guy in the NY Times that was using Google trends?

Isaac Jones

So I'm 5 minutes in and nobody has addressed the large son-shaped elephant in the room or his big news, so I'll be the first here to say congrats to Matt! Finally some uncle magic will be truly injected into the chapoverse!

Gubriel

did his old account get banned?

William

So the conservatives found their own rahm Emmanuel to triple down on trans issues

E

Pandemic isn't over

brodie

I have a feeling that cityafreaks is going to be a reoccurring guest, which I am all for

Cool Bird Facts

would love a whole episode of lone wolf and cub on movie mindset 👀

Michael S. Judge

Nutmeg and powdered indigo pouring from my pockets as I frighten everyone in 1600s Indonesia by yelling "My money real good right now, come fuck with me"

Poppy Chulo

Tony Scott for the first episode of movie mindset? Really? Generally Will and I have the same taste in film but I do not understand his love of Tony Scott. His movies were largely exhausting and all style over substance. Anyone remember "Domino"? Absolute shit.

Alexander

I wish I can get into EU4. i never liked the monarch power mechanic .

ddog

Doxxed by some weirdos.-

B2B Commuter

10 million people watched LSU/Iowa on Sunday and we are on day 3 of a posting race war because of some taunting at the end of the game. I feel like a segment of conservatives have turned themselves into earnest women’s sports fans to own the libs.

Shauna Seroquel

Tranny Diaries: It’s been really instructive to watch how The Tranny Issue been exploited by both parties -- yet another mutually dependent bipartisan tango towards fash… On the one hand, for like, what, five years or so, we’ve been a cause celebre for Dem-libs, meming Trans Women are Women! generally moving towards woke-scolding in lieu of grown-up conversation… All this created a context in which members of my friendbase (bio-girls) were biting their tongue out of worry that they’d say ‘the wrong thing’. Anyway, we were such a gift to the Liberal Messaging Class -- there are like 50 of us, so they don’t have to deal with us in real life, and even if they were going to make ‘trans rights’ about economic security, we’re a cheap fucking date. So for a few years I see straight people talking about tran stuff more than I ever have (I’m a class reductionist, duh), way out of proportion with our demographic reality. So you’re some downwardly mobile millennial looking at all this; you think: The government isn’t gonna do shit for me, and all they talk about is protecting this weird new thing that I have no experience with. Why do they get ‘special protection’? In short, I think that the ultimately disingenuous elevation of trans by libs in the public imagination turned us into shiny red meat for those looking for a boogeyman, boogeytheythem, what have you. And just when trans rights are becoming a legislative issue in a way they weren’t before, NOW Hillary comes out and says, yeah, you’re not our concern, bye-bye! That woman never runs out of classic bits. Here’s a real life case study for you: a neighbor across the street was for some years very friendly to me… I knew we’d never be friend-friends, but I like to cross social barriers in life, and while she said some wack shit, she always treated me with respect and even took me to a funeral as ‘just one of the gals.’ I knew she was already a Trump person, but then during COVID, she went down the Q-hole… Like, she did January 6… She organized an antivaxx protest at a Dodger Stadium vax-drive (largely for the elderly; back in the early rollout phase) that ended up shutting down the entire drive… But then the Stop The Steal and the anti-vax narratives weren’t getting MAGAs wet any more, and suddenly every time I run into her on the street, she starts screaming about how sick I am and lowkey threatens me with her horrifying pack of Nazi dogs (that she used to pay me to walk not so long ago). I thought, jesus lady, you hear a few Matt Walsh tirades and your worldview is reversed? Now THAT is top-shelf cuckery. Our last street hassle: Her: ‘YOU’LL ALWAYS BE A BOY!!!’ Me: ‘...and you’ll never be a lady!’ True story.

Chris

I don't buy the south park logic though that we need to be sceptical of our own issues along with the normies. Americans are obsessed with getting people to think they're cool and queer folk aren't above that tick. I think we should stop thinking of ways we can be cool and just start being sloppy emotional assholes.

Shauna Seroquel

I don't know what 'South Park logic' means! But what's this 'just start' you speak of? 😽😽

Gbone

ettingermentum permanent 4th mic

Thom

Matt talking over someone helping him play an EU4 campaign would be amazing.

Matt James Rich

Listening to this while door knocking for Brandon Johnson.

werp

guy posted his way onto the pod. living every piggie's dream.

tabbyswipe

The chapo to being a trans girl that says faggy and tranny pipeline

Jaime Christley

rude of Presinald Trunt to delay the Tuesday Chapo hour.

Calvin Bishop

Ettingermentum when you completely flop on calling the 2024 election i will still be loyal to you 🫡

the lord commander

Mr. Will Menaker the least you could do is do a joint episode with the Generation Loss podcast for stepping on their toes with your new movie pod cast.

syd

fantastic episode boys

etienne

this guy sounds like if science found the cure for brain damage and applied it on nick mullen

Simon

Good episode

The Pissler

Did Felix call that a Kafka test?

Alez

Fuckin-a Felix I had just relistened to Liquid Swords… time to run it back again

Houthi & the Blowfish

Not any different than Pete Buttigieg thinking Secretary of Transportation is a path to the presidency.

Negative Affirmations

The point Will made about women's sports is spot on. Been saying this since conservatives lost their minds about that college swimmer. "I may have open contempt for the US women's pro soccer team when they mention they're underpaid, but I am deeply passionate about the mericratic integrity of women's collegiate water sports!"

leedo

Offer this kid the job, this was very good!

Nolan

Wooooooooooow we just had a March Madness with both parity and plenty of madness and you guys are talkin bout the president? I think I speak for all listeners when I call you guys nerds.

The Etymology of Nonsense

The only good thing about podcasts is that you get to hear what your favorite people from Twitter sound like

J P 3

I don't think Clinton did Secretary of State to pad her resume for a presidential run. I think she did it first, because it was a great way to raise money for the Clinton Foundation and to ensure that Bill got top dollar for his speaking fees to clients like Swiss Bank UBS. The position also ensured patronage positions for people in the Clinton orbit. The presidential run was a secondary consideration. People in the Clinton orbit sold her on the run based on the high approval rating that she had as Secretary of State (and based on their own interest -- selling Clinton probably wasn't that hard either). The Beto race in 2018 was interesting in part because he campaigned during the primary as a full-throated and unaplogetic supporter of single-payer health care. The Texas race offered a nice test case for the issue. Also, the campaign invested heavily in ground organization across the entire state over the course of a year. This was also important given the completely gutted Dem party infrastructure in Texas (the Beto run probably did help down ballot in 2018). Unfortunately, Beto abandoned his single payer pledge as soon as he won the nomination in his Senate race. He then voted to gut Dodd-Frank as a demonstration of loyalty to the party's Wall Street donors before the Fall of 2018. Beto's run for the presidency in 2020 also directly undermined one of the core arguments against Cruz in 2018 (e.g. not only was Cruz an a-hole, but Beto repeatedly argued that he would be a full-time Senator and wouldn't just use the position to launch a presidential campaign as Cruz did in 2014/2016).

Reece Coren

is matt really having a child

plainwrap

Nice of the boys to give a sneak preview of their replacement host for when they break up and do their solo shows.

Nolan

I’m in the Ronald McDonald club it’s basically the MAGA Dumbledore’s army.

james

This kid is a dork

J.P. McD.

“Style over substance” as if that’s a legitimate critique - are you doing parody of a guy halfway through a Film Studies minor?

Dan

Virgil who??

Karl Childers

please make this dude a regular guest. he's the nick mullen of knowing things about politics

Poppy Chulo

Beyond aesthetics Tony Scotts films are hollow so no, it's absolutely a "legitimate critique." You can take one day off from being a catty bitch. I promise.

Major bit me

Yes and they are letting Chapo fans vote on its name get hype

Jon

Why does this guy sound like a twitch streamer?

Chris

It's the idea that the less you care about something or profess to not care about something, the more socially legitimate you become. You have a legit point about faking progress being toxic but visibility absolutely saves lives and is worth any cringe ciswads throw up in grievance imo. Stay beautiful ❤️

Jacobi Jefferson

Great episode. Get him on the 4th mic to replace Virgil as the election wonk

ScottB

Please have cityafreaks back on soon, great ep

J.P. McD.

Praise for this guy in November went overboard, there’s always gonna be randos who “hit” predictions on one election no matter what the result is. If I was betting on the next election I would absolutely choose 538 over him. [didnt listen yet, maybe he’s cool]

Shauna Seroquel

Oh yeah well then I totally agree with you! Trust me, I have been nothing if not visible -- lol sometimes it's all I've got. 😽😽💕

Borangehat

It was the Clinton people who wanted to get rid of caucuses, not Bernie.

Treppy

le epic pod

SCB

Chapotraphouse.

Christopher Nagle

Omg what a banger, I was already dead by the play-by-play of Trump’s forthcoming literal seppuku only to be reincarnated shortly thereafter by Felix’s bit about infant Barron’s selection of Lama objects…and there was still an hour left

Matthew Dunn

When was that said I missed that

Mark

Beltway Garage 2.0

etienne

the bernie bro to bernie sis pipeline

etienne

you mfs are so shell shocked about stav leaving cumtown that you imagine in your brain that chapo is anywhere as dysfunctional while the average late cumtown ep was nick explaining how he wanted to dome himself while stav was alternating between doing therapy and dolphin noises on air

Zach Pierce

Oh this came out yesterday? Hmmm

Finn

Fantastic guest

etienne

better than Weigel too

Doug Cartel

that is the one silver lining to the Dobbs decision, was that now we have an opportunity to actually make powerful legislation protecting women's rightsinstead of just leaning on Roe and hoping nobody would tank it. Roe wasn't nearly as robust a protection of abortion as actual legislation would have been.

Gbone

And they say meritocracy is dead smh

Pelican Grief

Kid sounds like he was raised by this show lol

Jack

lol i feel like this is the 5th time you played the goodfellas song at the end of an episode

T

He spent most of the episode in a pregnant pause

Justin Slepicka

It really is a combo of ESPN giving it unprecedented attention combined with a race war with two basically all-black teams against an all-white team in the finals. The formula works.

Gordon Schmidt

Nah he's a smart observer and generally pays attention to the right stuff, which doesn't sound like much, but it's more than enough to make 538 look like the hacks they are

Alex B

Pleeeeease have ettingermentum on for Beltway Garage

J.P. McD.

[listened] He was great on mic, 538 is lame at analysis, but if we’re talking numbers and maps I’m going with them

J.P. McD.

You repeated the same point with different words, it’s still wrong. They’re movies, aesthetics rule

B2B Commuter

Exactly. We complained about the undemocratic nature of super delegates and they countered by saying that Bernie was propped up by caucuses that are less democratic than primaries. Bernieland caved on caucuses to lessen the roll that super delegates play by not allowing them to vote on the first ballot. Probably not a good trade in retrospect, but it was one that had to be made if he wanted to shore up a point of contention with people that he needed to be amicable with if he was going to win in 2020.

Gordon Schmidt

people will hate on me for this but i wish we lived in the world where beto won in 2018. seeing that dumbass in the senate chamber for at least two years would have been sublime. he still probably would've run in 2020 though, but at least ted cruz would've been humiliated

Des Mosome

The body politic enervation made by neoliberalism that stops nation wide strikes for railway workers is bad but the moral exhaustion made by neoliberalism that allows on demand sex change is good.

Hassan

Hearing this episode earlier today and now seeing these incredible election results in Chicago/Wisconsin was really profound. This guy has his finger on the pulse more than any political commentator I’ve seen. Great episode and y’all should definitely bring him back.

jkjkjkj

Going a bit further off of felixs point about Republican media figures, the way you can tell de Santis is cooked is because the media figures that back him are pseudo intellectual freaks like Pedro Gonzalez, Matt Walsh, Dave Reaboi and Josh Hammer. The mission of these weirdos is to take trumpism and create a coherent ideology out of it and connect its disparate parts through an intellectual lineage and make it appealing to GOP voters via De Santis. The problem for them is that the average Republican voter doesn’t care about pat Buchanan or whatever paleocon writer they pull out of their ass to give an intellectual justification to the bullshit they push, what they want is a guy who owns the libs (not a guy who beats the libs like de Santis does, but OWNS the libs like trump does) and not only are they disinterested by an attempt to hone trumpism into a polished ideology, but they are fundamentally anti intellectual in nature and fucking hate when de Santis tries to be the smart, focused guy because they hate fucking nerds and want a douschebag frat boy to be their president.

Jacob

If he doesn't execute and clone Matt I will, he must play EU4

Christopher Price

Domino rocks. Once again DHS shows his absolute shit taste in movies.

Poppy Chulo

The script, the actual writing, the story structure are incredibly important. Film analysis is subjective so it can't be wrong or considered illegitimate, it's all legitimate. Take a look at the most lauded films of the twentieth century, they are celebrated for more than their aesthetics, thats the point im making. To discard the script and story structure for just the aesthetics is reductive and foolish. Also you're still a bitch.

THEKILLERWHALE

You must have two women on the screen talking about existential dread!

Poppy Chulo

Yeah I don't think Domino rocks, I think Domino is an example of Tony Scotts worst tendencies in directing completely overwhelming and smothering whatever the hell he was trying to make. Also who the fuck are you? You don't know what I like/dislike outside of not liking Domino. Retard.

spinalcordial

Gonna be a run on the chapo bank if matt christman doesn't start chiming in

J.P. McD.

I was finishing the Orc campaign of Warcraft 1 (1994) while listening, finally getting redemption for the 3 missions I hadn’t finished in 2005

Zach Pierce

Yo, homez. No Democrat has won statewide in TX since Ann Richards. By 2000, Fox News had captured the entire middle class, with help from Rush Limbaugh. Beto did better than any other Dem. It’s an impossible state especially now with the Latinos trying to “out-American” white people. If we COULD win Texas, we could reshape the Supreme Court within 12 years…

Zach Pierce

Caucuses are very undemocratic. Only those with LOTS OF TIME and resources can participate. They are antiquated like the EC

October

o-BER-guh-fell. FFS.

Ardy Rezv

It’s something dumb the chapo guys came up with and their fanboys parrot

Ardy Rezv

I’ve bet on the girl with a dick to win every race. Pretty profitable

J P 3

The caucuses are a good measure of enthusiasm and organization. During the general election it helps to have highly motivated volunteers who have a lot of time, who are willing to knock on doors, make phone calls and evangelize for a candidate. Obama was a big beneficiary of this in 2008 and had massive coattails as a consequence. Instead in 2016, the Dems went with a candidate who didn't believe in persuasion or ground organization, who lost a very winnable election against the most unpopular major party nominee in the history of polling. The Clinton campaign had more than enough money to win, but spent the bulk of it on paid media. Clinton's poor performance in the caucuses should have been a warning sign to the campaign and the party -- it was indicative of a lack of enthusiasm and poor ground organization. Instead of having a useful gauge of enthusiasm and ground organization, the party has opted to exercise more control over the selection process with less input from party activists. The idea that the party changed the rules because it cares about voters is a real howler. The reason that the party leaders changed the rules is because the primary system reduces party voters to passive consumers. Party insiders exercise more control over the selection process without caucuses.

Sep S.

The way this guest talks - is this some sort of gen-z cadence?

Terry Buckley

We are less that 5 episodes from Will barking "IM NOT DONE TALKING!" at Felix when he tries to get a joke in

Michael Ouderkirk

Ummmmmm there is no Elton John LP called ROCKET MAN. The song "Rocket Man" is from his 1972 HONKY CHATEAU album. Unless Felt x meant the soundtrack to the 2019 biopic ROCKETMAN, but that's really a Taron Egerton album...

constitutional Peasant

I'm curious how comfortable etting is with the reality that low turnout is best in all cases. Seems kinda dark

Karl Childers

he has the vibe of someone who drinks hard liquor alone in the dark to unwind so i'd guess it weighs on him a bit

Gubriel

Really enjoyed this guest, does anyone have a clue what his handle is referring to? Google Translate says it's 'Stretch Out The Chin' in Latin

KHL

Barstool conservatives that’s a good one, lol

George P

a Dem named Jeff Ettinger did much better than anticipated in a special election in a Trumpy Minnesota district in mid-2022, which led to him concluding the Dobbs effect was real

Peter Fishbeast

We need more episodes on Crooked Hilary and the Biden Crime Family

absoluteboi

all my homies wanna lock her up

Sam Zeng

The model of left organizing that is advocated basically carters to this model of engagement. They tend to attract people with a lot of time and are ideologically motivated. Left politics is not popular because we haven't accomplished anything and the public is right to distrust us.

MC Prescott

Gonna have to listen to the cushvlogs for that

MC Prescott

Ain’t no way a Nate silver head is in here

calvin kilby

real motherfuckin' meifumado hours who up

Logan

What is this?

E C

I assume he's exhausted from hell on earth. Give the man his rest!

Dan

Yeah he’s a great guest

Taylor Borie

Is he forgetting the 2020 Iowa caucus bullshit?

Jö

I wish I knew

Trent England

He sounds like a nick mullen character

Shauna Seroquel

Thank you -- though I'm a fan myself so I can't throw too much shade! The Chapo Lexicon proves very useful to me overall.

loafman

matt comin in hot at 48:00 lol

lake

“On demand sex change” does not exist. Those procedures take a long time full of red tape in the most tolerant states.

MKatieUltra

I listened to it on my way to the volunteer office yesterday!

slimthiccyaddle

Best new guest in awhile, give him the Virgil elections beat

Nick

ettingermentum fourth mic when

Shauna Seroquel

LOL I love how Clapton now = the Goodfellas Song

Des Mosome

Hello, lovie! Gender affirming care is just it. All that exists between changing your pronoun to going full T or E is price. Red tape is but the cost of doing the business!

Sheila Mydick

Never heard of this guy but he rocks

(Noah J)

professional politics guy comments on abortion, suggests americans have even the slightest notion of historical memory. gotta love the false confidence but damn what a fucking idiot lol

CR

Great guest, it’s as if he’d been there all along

Doodles

Ettingermentum for 4th mic.

chronye

why he sound like if stavvy was a dork

Sean Brocklehurst

kinda thought that was nick from cumtown for a second

Thomas Carroll

Stultifying! Never heard or seen that word in my life. It means "To cause to lose interest or feel dull and not alert. To render useless or ineffectual. To cause to appear stupid, inconsistent, or ridiculous."

Thomas Carroll

He doesn't sound like anyone from cum town to me. Just sounds like a random guy

Thomas Carroll

Holy shit Matt with an all time record of 48 minutes until his heart whispered at him to speak.

danny

this guy rules

A RQ

Echoing everyone else here- get this dude back on a semi regular basis in the old Virgil Beltway Garage role. Great chemistry.

Mike Mariano

As a young driver my dad got annoyed when I flipped past Layla on the radio. “That was Eric Clapton!” “Yeah, but it was the end of the song.” “The end goes on for five minutes!” I flipped back to Layla and he was right, so the end of this episode was exactly like my dad and I driving in silence.

Joe Halloran

I woke up this morning and saw that you had Josh on and my face almost fell off. Best episode ever.

MiCast

One of the best episodes.

Franklin Shepard Inc.

Where the hell is my big hairy cheese boi i only give money because i dig the Christman. I am based and grillpilled and need my slop. Great guest tho

James Ashner

Holy crap what an awesome guest

J.P. McD.

He basically translated posting into the way he really talks, with the key skill being that his mind is very fast at coming up with insightful sounding and funny things to say

J.P. McD.

But it was like 5 days ago

Josh Tarpley

Loved the guest, was cracking up along with all my parasocial friends this episode

Declan Kennedy

great episode, and the transphobia article was incredible movie mindset is shaping up to be a banger too... in the mouth of madness? Tony Scott and Denzel? what an opener!

GD

Amazing episode and guest, bring him on for beltway garage or permanently!

bl

my new favorite guest. i hope he's back soon! thanks for the ep

Gardner

Bring him in permanently... that dude has it. Funny and informed on elections/politics.

J. A.

scrape your bowl (watch old twitch streams)

William

Matt works all his shit out on the vlog streams these days. No juice left for Chapo unless talking electoral politics horse race

William

Not as pathetic as someone trying to win points in the comments section though, so he’s got that

Besand

Fulton county heads rejoice!

YourBabysFather

Will you don’t have to keep forcing this laughter it’s annoying

Rio

Elliot Matheny

Covid is more endemic now. Simply a regular disease in the rotation that can be mitigated by getting the jab (or not)

C. Andrew

And then the student asked the teacher, "but how do I desire not to desire?"

C. Andrew

Cursed Stavv/Adam genetic hybrid

teacup

If you're going to be transphobic at least spell faggot right

Rio

I'm latin and have an accent

J. A.

wop wetback

William

Get fucked lil bitch

ploob

Ben?