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Early Access: The Americans were just lucky? (Patreon)

Published:
2020-12-06 13:35:41
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2026-06
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Midway: Were the Americans just lucky?

Recently someone noted about the Japanese and then the Germans that they were just lucky about their early successes, well, this for me is just another oversimplification that is just wrong. We looked at the German side already. So in this video Justin Pyke (MA) and I address this whole issue in a little more detail with some very specific examples for the US Side as well. Definitions of Luck: “Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.” “Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity." You can follow Justin on twitter here: https://twitter.com/CBI_PTO_History Cover design by vonKickass. »» SUPPORT MHV «« » patreon, see videos early (adfree) - https://www.patreon.com/join/mhv » subscribe star - https://www.subscribestar.com/mhv » paypal donation - https://paypal.me/mhvis »» MERCHANDISE «« » teespring - https://teespring.com/stores/military-history-visualized » SOURCES « our brains #TheAmericansWereJustLucky,#LuckInWar,#MidwayAndLuck

Comments

Hyok Kim

It was a little more than that. Operational strategic mistake made by IJN.

Hyok Kim

The video could have been deeper, more profound, more gestalt. The main reason for IJN defeat was on suboptimal operational strategy. Basically mirroring the operational strategic mistakes made by Wehrmacht in Barbarossa. IJN had failed to concentrate their offensive assets at Midway. They got too ambitious, worrying more about efficiency than effectiveness, by diverting their naval offensive assets into 3 different diverging directions too far away to support one another like Wehrmacht in Barbarossa. Had IJN concentrated their naval offensive assets in Midway operations, no amount of ‘luck’ or skill, or daring or intelligence coup from USN would have overcome the Japanese advantages. This is from the analysis of U.S. Naval operation done in 80s. As for skills, at Midway, IJN/IJA had superior training, and certainly more experience than U.S. pilots at the time, overall. After Midway, the skills of IJN had suffered greatly, not IJA though. The skills degradation of IJN pilots talked about by Justin had not happened yet by Midway. It happened after Midway, through the loss of more than 200 pilots at Midway. So the skill differential of the pilots between the opposing forces had little to do with the victory at Midway. As for intelligence coup, it had more to do with the victory than the pilot skills. However, not enough to overcome the Japanese advantages, had IJN not made operational strategic mistake of not concentrating their forces at Midway. Again, this is from U.S. Naval Operations done in 80s/ What IJN should have done was to take Midway, forget about everything else. Once Midway was taken, concentrate on finding and destroy the U.S. Pacific fleet, utilizing Midway, and their combined fleets, in two distinct different stages. Btw. I still maintain Japan should not have gone to war with U.S. and the Western colonial pseudo democracies, at least, not at that time. That was their grand strategic mistake. They might have gone to war against U.S. and the Western colonial pseudo democracies, later, at least 10 years or longer. Instead, they should have prepared to go to war against Soviet Union in conjunction with Germany. That would have ensured the Axis victory for certain. This is from one of their most far right general no less. Kanji Ishiwara - Wikipedia