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Early Access: Why Military Intelligence is so bad? (Patreon)

Published:
2022-06-06 08:20:13
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

An almost complete solo by Justin!

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Why Military Intelligence is so bad

In this video Justin Pyke elaborates the various problems that analysts in the field of (military) intelligence and others face. He covers group think, mirror imaging, ethnocentrism, stereotyping, best-case/worst-case logic and other topics as well. Original Photo: www.GlynLowe.com from Hamburg, Germany - Daniel Craig - Film Premiere "Spectre" 007 - on the Red Carpet in Berlin, www.glynlowe.com/spectre-007_berlin_premiere, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Daniel_Craig_-_Film_Premiere_%22Spectre%22_007_-_on_the_Red_Carpet_in_Berlin_(22387409720).jpg Modified by MHV. »» GET OUR BOOKS «« » The Assault Platoon of the Grenadier-Company November 1944 (StG 44) - http://sturmzug.com » Army Regulation Medium Panzer Company 1941 - http://www.hdv470-7.com »» SUPPORT MHV «« » patreon, see videos early (adfree) - https://www.patreon.com/join/mhv » subscribe star - https://www.subscribestar.com/mhv » paypal donation - https://paypal.me/mhvis »» MERCHANDISE «« » teespring - https://teespring.com/stores/military-history-visualized » SOURCES « https://www.amazon.com/Uncovering-Ways-War-Intelligence-Innovation/dp/0801475740 https://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Strategy-Selected-Essays-Studies/dp/0415361958 https://www.amazon.com/Knowing-Ones-Enemies-Intelligence-Assessment/dp/0691047170 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0030438704001061 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2009967 https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/intelligence-and-the-war-in-ukraine-part-1/ https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/intelligence-and-the-war-in-ukraine-part-2/ https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics/us-intelligence-review-ukraine/index.html https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/what-the-experts-got-wrong-and-right-about-russian-military-power/ 00:00 Intro 00:42 Who are the analysts? 01:35 Capability and intention 07:29 Group Think 08:19 Mirror Imaging 09:15 Ethnocentrism 10:36 Stereotyping 11:25 Best-Case / Worst-Case Logic 12:44 The final challenge 13:37 So what? 14:39 One last thing: Agendas? 15:49 MHV Chiming In 17:06 Concluding quote #WhyAnalystsFail,#MilitaryIntelligence,#Analysis

Comments

Volker Hartmann

What people get totally wrong when they make an argument like the pictured in YT-comment is that they use concepts from a systemic analysis to explain individual behavior/judgment/acting etc. What they totally forget is the concept of military-industrial-complex is in the first place a systemic concept, i.e. it claims that there is an interaction of different organisations, juridical entities and individual persons that leads via different typical interactions to different typical outcomes. The idea is that goals of the individuals interact, for different reasons, in a certain manner and lead to typical goals. It precisely does not claim that all the people, which are part of the military-industrial-complex (or any other systemic entity for that matter) share common believes and goals or that their actions are directly influenced by the supposed goal of the supposed systemic entity they supposedly are part of. There are two statements of two very famous men who dealt with systemic entities, which illustrate this: "We don't expect our bread from the baker because of his benevolence but his selve interest." (only quoting from memory, hence prbbly incorrect word for word) Adam Smith "Sie wissen es nicht, aber sie tun es."/"They don't know yet they do it." Karl Marx - People however extremely often take systemic theories or entities and use them as if they were directly causalisticly relevant for individual actions, while on the contrary the individual actions, within the context where they happen, can bring about systemic entities. - My penny on the question whether military intelligence assessments are biased towards exaggerating the abilities of (potential) adversaries and, if so, why: I can imagine that this might be the case, but I don't know and could be wrong. In history there have been also plenty of underestimations. And the latter being precisely what one wants to avoid. To underestimate your enemy is a mistake that can cost you dearly. That is imho the main reason for rather over- then underestimating foreign capabilities. I find the example of the mutual assessments as well as self-assesments of the two German militaries during the Cold War interesting. The self-assesment was in both cases worse than the assessment by the adversary.

Military History Visualized
>>85526182

"use concepts from a systemic analysis to explain individual behavior/judgment/acting" Very good point, I haven't noticed that yet myself or at least I was not aware of it. What I noticed a lot is that people often argue on a tactical level for strategic issues or the other way round, I generally learned to mostly ignore such comments, since these people lack a basic understanding, although they often know a lot, but details without understanding is just information not knowledge. > of the two German militaries during the Cold War interesting. The self-assesme> nt was in both cases worse than the assessment by the adversary. Hyper-critical, guess not much has changed :D

Volker Hartmann

>Details without understanding is just information not knowledge.< Great sentence! Are you quoting anyone or is it you? If the former: who? If the latter: are you basing yourself on some comcepts of computer-science? If yes: Would you mind to name me the literature I could look into? I just about to submit a paper where this might be highly important for me --- The good old German approach (how is it in Austria? same difference or different sameness?)

Military History Visualized
>>90686266

I think it was me, but considering my memory lately, it could have been someone else as well. The difference between data, knowledge, information, etc. I knew, although I might not differentiate them correctly. I think in intelligence literature you might find something, maybe ping Justin on twitter, I know that Chieftain makes the distinction usually when he talks about intelligence. Sorry, for the delay.