2024 年總結 (Patreon)

What a year 2024 has been. US stock market is up another 25%, we had more than a few major winners like Nvidia, Gold, Bitcoin, Reddit, Palantir and Tesla. This phase of the market cycle, with strong momentum and limited drawdowns, is particularly good for momentum style trading that we use.

2024真係好精彩嘅一年。美國股市又升多25%，我哋有好幾隻主要大贏家，例如Nvidia、黃金、比特幣、Reddit、Palantir同Tesla。呢個市場週期嘅階段，充滿強勁嘅動力而且回調有限特別適合我哋採用嘅動量型交易策略。

As markets slow down towards the end of the year, it is a good time to review and reflect upon where we did well and where we didn’t. If you have been recording your trades (excel template) then you can easily review and analyze which types of trades were more successful. For example, it could be a type of setup, a length of the setup or a timeframe of trade that you did particularly well at.

隨住市場喺年底慢慢放緩，呢個係一個好時機去檢討同反思，我哋做得好嘅地方同做得唔好嘅地方。如果你有記錄自己嘅交易（可以用呢個Excel模版），你就可以好容易咁檢視同分析邊啲類型嘅交易比較好啲。例如，可以係某種類型嘅交易set-up、set-up嘅時間長度，或者某個時間timeframe嘅交易特別成功。

In my case, trades with long set up (e.g. NVDA, Gold & Bitcoin) and IPO base breakouts (e.g. RDDT, SOUN, SERV, ALAB) have been particularly rewarding. While discretionary trading, like guessing market direction, did not do as well. Then I need to reflect upon this for next year. It is through this continual cycle of review and analysis that we refine our trading technique.

我自己嚟講，set-up with long time frame嘅交易（例如：NVDA、黃金、比特幣）同IPO base breakout（例如：RDDT、SOUN、SERV、ALAB）嘅交易，表演特別好。而用主觀判斷市場走勢嘅交易，就唔係咁理想。咁我就需要為下一年進行反思。係通過呢個持續檢討同分析嘅循環，我哋可以不斷改進自己嘅交易技術。

As for capital allocation, at the end of the year I transfer part of my trading profit into my long-term investment account. This is for diversification purpose and to ensure even if market condition worsens next year, I get to keep some of the gains. How much to transfer, that depends on how aggressive you want to be in trading. Transferring 0% would be most aggressive allowing you to snowball your trading profit for more trading next year. Transferring 100% is the most conservative. I usually do about half.

至於資金分配方面，每年年底，我會將部分交易利潤轉移到長期投資賬戶。咁樣做係為咗分散投資，同確保即使下一年市場環境變差，我都可以保住部分收益。至於轉移幾多就視乎你對交易嘅進取程度。如果轉移0% 就係最進取，咁可以滾雪球式咁累積交易利潤，用嚟下一年再交易。如果轉移100%就最保守。我通常會轉移一半左右。

I don’t have urgency to deploy this capital. It can be ammunition for when & if the market corrects. Or I can use dollar cost averaging to invest systematically over time. Or I can immediately invest more into in my long-term portfolio holdings. What you choose is a matter of personal preference. There is no “correct” answer (I’ve explained the pros and cons of each before, so won’t repeat here). The most important thing is 1) you understand you have a choice and 2) be able to think for yourself based on your financial situation in a rational manner. Most of the time, I go with dollar cost averaging to prevent myself from trying to time the market, which is something I already do in my trading portfolio.

我唔急住部署呢筆資金。呢筆錢可以係市場調整時候嘅「彈藥」。又或者我可以月供投資，逐步咁投資入市。又或者我可以即時增加我嘅長期投資組合持倉。點樣選擇係你個人嘅偏好，冇一個「正確」嘅答案（我之前已經解釋過每種方法嘅利弊，所以唔再重覆）。最重要嘅係1）你明白你有選擇；2）根據你嘅財務狀況理性思考。我大多數時候會選擇定期定額投資，避免自己嘗試去捉市場時機，因為呢樣嘢我已經喺交易組合入面做咗。

This is my process to accumulate wealth: make profit from trading, invest part of the profit, increase trading size and repeat.

呢個係我積累財富嘅過程：從交易中賺取利潤，將部分利潤用嚟長線投資，增加交易規模，然後不斷重複。

Some years will be more straightforward like this year and sometimes it’ll be harder like 2022. The key is to be able to capture more profit when times are good and to limit your loss when trading environment is difficult.

有啲年份會比較順利，例如今年。有時會比較困難，例如2022年。關鍵係喺環境好嘅時候盡量捕捉更多利潤，而喺交易環境困難時限制損失。

What makes good trading environment?

When the market is between late stage 1 and throughout stage 2 (Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis), which is what we saw this year as the broader market steadily moved up with not big drawdowns.

咩係好嘅交易環境？

喺市場處於第一階段嘅後期至第二階段期間（參考Stan Weinstein嘅階段分析），即係今年所見，整體市場穩步上升，且冇大幅回調。

What makes bad trading environment?

All the other phases (stage 3, stage 4 and most of stage 1). Because there is a lack of momentum (lack of animal spirit), so breakouts more often fail resulting in repeated loss cuts. In this scenario, frequent small losses can result into material portfolio drawdown.

咩係差嘅交易環境？

其他階段（第三階段、第四階段同大部分第一階段）。因為動量不足（缺乏市場熱情），所以突破往往失敗，導致反覆止損。喺呢種情況下，頻繁嘅小額損失可能會導致資金大幅回撤。

How about making money from shorting? 做空可以賺錢嗎？

For some assets, like FX, trading on the short side is the same as trading on the long side (just opposite) because FX have no natural directional bias. USDJPY going up is the same as JPYUSD doing down.

對於某啲資產，例如外匯（FX），做空同做多基本上冇分別，因為外匯冇自然嘅方向性偏向。USDJPY升係等同於JPYUSD跌。

For other assets, particularly stocks. They have a natural upward bias because economies tend to grow over time. By extension, this also means companies (stocks represent ownership in companies) as a whole, their value go up over time.

但對於其他資產，尤其係股票，佢哋有自然嘅向上偏向，因為經濟隨時間增長。進一步而言，公司（股票代表公司嘅擁有權）作為整體，價值會隨時間增長。

Apart from this natural long bias, most stocks also have intrinsic value that prevent it from falling as much as it can go up. For example, NVDA stock price went up 300% in past couple years. But it cannot fall 300%, the most it can fall is 100%. Secondly, because stocks are backed by the companies net assets and its ability to profit in the future. At some point when the stock price falls big enough they become bargain buys. On the opposite side, when a stock rise too much beyond its ‘intrinsic value’. Shorting it can be disastrous as you can get short squeezed.

除咗呢種自然嘅向上偏向，大部分股票都有內在價值，防止佢跌得太多。例如，NVDA股價喺過去幾年升咗300%。但佢唔可以跌300%，因為最多只能跌100%。此外，股票由公司嘅淨資產同未來盈利能力支持。當股價跌到某個程度，佢哋會變成便宜貨。而另一方面，當一隻股票升得遠超佢嘅「內在價值」時，做空可能會非常危險，因為你可能會遭遇空頭擠壓。

Furthermore, market nature is such that when it goes up, it goes up slowly. But when it falls, it is quick and steep. Like walking 10 steps up and suddenly falling 5 steps. With that, it makes trading on the short side much more demanding. By the time you notice something has broken down, it may have fallen too much already to enter.

此外，市場特性係：升市慢慢升，跌市急速跌。好似行10步上樓梯，然後突然跌返5步。呢點令做空交易更加困難。當你察覺某啲嘢崩潰嘅時候，可能已經跌得太多，未必適合再入場。

And following such steep fall, volatility rise resulting in rebounds of proportional magnitude. Or put simply, things get volatile. At which point, if the stops are too tight it would result in frequent stop losses. But if stops are too wide, then the reward to risk ratio won’t be good. Unless you aim for much more downside. But remember, many stocks have intrinsic value. Unlike during Stage 2, where after going up 30%, a large cap stock can go up another 30% and another 30%. During Stage 4, it would be hard to hope for a large cap to fall 30%, and another 30% and 30%.

喺急跌之後，波動性上升，導致相應幅度嘅反彈。簡單啲講，市場會變得更加波動。如果止損設定太窄，就會導致頻繁止損；但如果止損太寬，回報風險比可能會唔吸引，除非你期望更大幅度嘅下跌。但記住，大部分股票都有內在價值。唔同於第二階段期間，一隻大市值股票可以升30%，再升多30%，甚至再升30%。喺第四階段，要期望一隻大市值股票跌30%、再跌30%甚至再跌30%，會比較困難。

In such environment, momentum-based swing trading will be difficult. But with increased volatility, day trading becomes more viable because there is more intraday movement. But this is more time consuming and not everyone enjoys staring at the screen for hours. So an alternative would be to stay defensive, trading in smaller size to reduce ‘death by a thousand cuts’ but monitoring the market. Because after a difficult period, a good period will return. And if you don’t monitor, you’ll miss out on the easy money phase and get in only when everyone is talking about it (which by definition is the later stage).

喺呢種環境下，基於動量嘅波段交易會比較困難。但隨住波動性增加，日內交易可能會變得可行，因為每日波動加大。但呢種交易耗時，唔係每個人都鍾意長時間盯住屏幕。所以另一個選擇係保持防守，縮細交易規模，減少「千刀割」嘅損失，同時密切留意市場。因為喺困難時期之後，通常會迎嚟好時期。如果唔留意市場，你可能會錯過簡單賺錢嘅階段，只會喺所有人開始討論時先入場（而呢個通常係較後嘅階段）。

I’ve been watching the markets for nearly 20 years now. This is a process that repeats and repeats. Some cycles are longer (e.g. 2008 Global Financial Crissi), others are shorter (2020 Covid).

While I am not making prediction the market will crash, with US stocks up 55% in the past two years. Plus retail market participation & sentiment seeing signs of extreme animal spirit (e.g. quantum stocks, meme coins). It would not be surprising if we experience a bigger correction than we have seen in the past two years.

我觀察市場已經接近20年，呢個過程係不斷重複嘅。有啲週期比較長（例如2008年嘅全球金融危機），有啲週期比較短（例如2020年嘅疫情）。

雖然我唔係預測市場會崩盤，但美股喺過去兩年升咗55%。加上散戶市場嘅參與度同情緒顯示出極端市場熱情嘅跡象（例如AI同量子股，meme幣）。如果我哋經歷一個比過去兩年更大嘅調整，一啲都唔會覺得意外。

Watchlist Review

Hong Kong

 1810 hit my target (+1.4 R). Leaving some to fly kite

 288 stop loss (-1 R)

US : No change

Japan

7751 broke out

Have a Happy New Year and I wish for another good year in 2025!

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