IA Daily Digest (July 8-10, 2024) (Patreon)

Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts (thanks, Josh, for collecting)

Date: 8 July 2024 - 9 July 2024 

• Bitcoin:

  • Germany Sales:

  At the start of 2024, Germany had 52,000 Bitcoin in its possession. The holdings are now down to 18k BTC (down from 39.8k BTC Monday). 2 things: 1) It's incredible how resilient the BTC price has been 2) The recovery starts now. ⁠bitcoin⁠ Solana:

  • ETF Update:

  SOL ETF’s are going to have a final deadline of mid March 2025. Firedancer is coming. ⁠

• Tesla:

  • Earnings Surprise:

  IA thinks we could get a margin surprise from FSD uptake, megapacks and cars given cybertruck. ⁠

  • RIVN:

  Rivian’s Chief Accounting Officer Jeff Baker, will resign, effective July 27th. ⁠

  • New Highs:

  TSLA has soared to a new 272 day high. IA notes TSLA normally splits around $800. IA believes we could hit $800 per share by 2026 if FSD and Bot and Robotaxi really kick off.

  • LILO:

  IA gives LILO levels for TSLA.

  ⁠

• Trading and Investing:

  • Timeframe:

  In the past, IA used to consider 10-year durations. Nowadays, with the rapid pace of change, it's more like 3 to 5 years. ⁠

  • PTOS:

  The Pair Trading on Steroids (PTOS) model is designed to exploit mispricings between two inversely correlated assets eg TSLA and TSLQ or BITO and BITI etc not for TSLA and BTC.

Date: 9 July 2024 - 10 July 2024 

• Tesla:

  • Buying More:

  IA’s style is not to buy after 92% moves up, but encourages those who have no TSLA to get some. IA’s last buy was 170. Everyone needs a little tesla.

  • Leap ROI:

  Every dollar counts and when you own 1 leap, you make $100 for every dollar TSLA goes up. ⁠

  • GM Partnership:

  General Motors Mexico is partnering with TSLA to build 1,000 charging points in Mexico. The companies intend to stimulate the development of EVs in the country. This is a win win for Tesla and Tesla (yes I said that correctly). ⁠

  • Selling TSLA:

  The opportunity cost of selling TSLA to buy a Tesla Car is too high. IA encourages driving a beater for 3-5 years and then get a Tesla roadster. ⁠

  • New Optimus Design:

  Musk writes the new optimus design will be completed later this year is something special. ⁠

  • TSLL:

  IA would only buy TSLL short term, 10-30 days max. ⁠

  • Leap Prices:

  The Dec 2026 $250 calls are $103.80. The break even on this contract is $353 - and IA encourages it is better to buy the stock on margin. ⁠

  • Shorts:

  The Kobeissi Letter write 17.6% of hedge funds are now shorting Tesla, $TSLA, the highest share in over a year. This is up from 13.9% recorded three months ago, according to Hazeltree which tracks over 500 funds. ⁠

• Bitcoin:

  • Price Models:

  IA has around 30 BTC price models and he weighs them all and takes an average. He hopes to do a video soon, but expects a BTC price of around 100k-120k. ⁠

• Solana:

  • Firedancer:

  The most significant news regarding Firedancer today is that it has successfully built its first accepted block on the Solana testnet. This was confirmed by an engineer at Jump Crypto, @CantelopePeel, who shared this update on Twitter. This development is a crucial step towards the full integration of the Firedancer client into the Solana ecosystem, which is expected to significantly enhance the blockchain's performance, reliability, and scalability. ⁠

• Trading and Investing:

  • Margin:

  For most stocks, this is typically 50% (Regulation T requirement). After purchasing the securities, you must maintain a minimum equity level in your account, usually 25% of the total market value of the securities. IA always has 7 digits in margin free and clear.

CPI TOMORROW

• On Thursday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy: June's Consumer Price Index (CPI).

  The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.1%, a deceleration from the 3.3% rise seen in May. This would be the smallest annual rise since January as another drop in energy prices likely will have contributed to further downward pressure on headline CPI.