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Updated MSTR Arb Calculator (Patreon)

Published:
2024-09-13 17:08:09
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:
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Content

updated for the buy today

ARB CLOUD model update coming soon

Files

Previews only

MSTR Arbitrage Calculator Patreon SEP 14, 2024

Note: Sometimes real time quotes are delayed from Yahoo and or Google by 15 mins, Pls do not change formulae - IA

Comments

BRIAN BAGZ

Wonder how many shares of MSTX is equal to owning 1 BTC. Hard with the decay in the instrument though..

Rick

Is there a best time to exercise your MSTR leaps if you want to purchase the stock?

Clark

Today's market pump seems like the beginning of the real thing. I believe investors are front running the Fed cut, now that .25, not .50, is the most likely amount. A lot of the market uncertainties are being resolved ahead of schedule, including the election. We may not have to wait until November for ATH and Blue Sky.

Drew Isaac

Can someone remind me, if the "Premium to Own BTC" is positive then it is better to buy BTC vs MSTR, and if it is negative it is better to buy MSTR vs BTC. Is that correct? Alternatively you could sell and arb over into the other product. Correct?

believer

🚀🚀🚀

Colby

James have you heard about cypherpunk holdings and there solana strategy? Publicly traded, can you check it out?

LMG

To make it simple, at the end of it, the only key metric with the way the sheet is designed right now is the ROI, folks. The ROI on MSTR is only slightly better than BTC. So not much reason to buy MSTR over BTC based on the current model. Caveats of this model: 1) the model assumes that the premium on MSTR valuation over its BTC holdings remains at 2x over the bull run as BTC valuation increases. Now if you think the market will start assigning a higher valuation premium to MSTR over the bull run, for example it reaches 3x, then we get to a point where the ROI on MSTR will outperform BTC. 2) the model assumes that MSTR will hold the same amount of BTC as BTC reaches new highs. That is of course not true as MSTR keeps buying and the way they buy (debt vs share issuance) will impact the price of the share of the company. My recommendation to creators of the sheet: put the ROIs on BTC and MSTR as separate rows underneath all those calculations. Then you can do neat adjustments on the valuation premium of MSTR over its BTC holdings easily depending on the price of BTC and see what impact it can have.

Reaper of Doom

why is the net cap 1.2B . surely it is equal to the market cap - BTC value which would be 12B or am i missing something

shaggybrown

the Arb trade calculator is out of date, MSTR has added more BTC. Also could the sheet be updated to make it very clear what the discount / premium means. For example if the premium is X%, it could say, "This means that buying MSTR is currently more expensive than buying BTC". Every time I look at this, I keep trying to remember which is which.

shaggybrown
>>150693062

Another feature that might be helpful and easy to implement is a cell where I can enter # shares I own, and it can calculate the liquidation value of my holdings - meaning if I sold all MSTR and put it into BTC I would own X BTC.