IA Daily Digest (Dec 16-31, 2024) (Patreon)

Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts (thanks, Josh, for collecting)

Date: Dec 16 2024 - 18 Dec 2024

• Tesla year end 2025 Price Target:

  • $650:

  Tesla at $650 looks very real based on PE. So many big earning hi margin lines are coming in 2025 and 2026. ⁠

  • $40T Price Target:

  Remember, TSLA hitting a $40T market cap is only worth $3.4T when you debase it at 15% for 16 years. However rem Economy will grow fast with bots. Those that own the capital stand to make the most. ⁠

  • Keeper:

  Tesla is a keeper for IA. Even more of a long term hold than BTC. He has been very clear about this since 2021 as he knows where the company is going. ⁠

• MSTR:⁠

  • Bear Market:

  MSTR is special, and will probably get hammered in a bear market. Saylor is clearly going balls to the wall to stack all the BTC he can before Sovereigns enter the fray. As of now, IA would probably be 15% MSTR, 40% TSLA, and 25% in other things like Spot BTC, SOL. ⁠

• Trading and Investing:

  • Trade Alerts:

  IA’s vow is to share everything he does openly and transparently with the community. This is to help others learn from his approach but NOT for others to copy. ⁠⁠

  • Focus:

  IA recommends staying focused. Pick winning assets, and pick very few of them. ⁠

  • Allocations:

  IA’s allocations are not for others to follow. IA has cash and lots of real estate, and IA’s cost basis on some of his assets are literally zero or a credit. There are still deals today but they are fewer and farther between.

  • Synthetic Longs:

  IA doesn’t go out of his way to invest in xAi or SpaceX as it doesn’t have options. IA can do a synthetic long on TSLA that costs him a few thousand dollars that controls $50k in stock. He can’t do that with SpaceX. He does however have exposure thru Neptune. ⁠

  • Fundamental Investor:

  IA is a Disruptive Value investor. He invests on data and data normally gets you to the right answer with some undulations along the way.

MSTR: 

• New Shares Proposal:

MSTR’s new proposal is a 33.1x increase in shares. This will allow Saylor to buy all the BTC and drive it up. IA would rather Saylor issue convertible bonds than ATM. If saylor issues half the amount of shares proposed, BTC price would be at $2.5M. ⁠ Market is concerned he is going too far.

• Saylor’s Plan:

Saylor’s plan is simple and has articulated 1000 times. He will buy as much as he can, as fast as he can, price of MSTR be damned. This is his game theory. In an interview this week he was asked will he work for the Trump Admin and he smiled wryly telling me know knows more than he is letting on.

• Stock Split:

IA reckons MSTR will split again at $1000. ⁠

• 2025:

One of the main focuses in 2025 will be cashing in on profits.

TESLA ENTRY LEVEL

• $400:

IA would love to see $400 again.

Date: Dec 25 2024 - 31 Dec 2024

MSTR: ⁠

• Where we are:

When Saylor announced the $42B plan, MSTR outperformed BTC by as much as 70%. Now it has reverted and now only shows a slight performance edge over BTC. IA would have exited MSTR at $550 if it wasn’t for tax considerations. The market is now worried Saylor is going in too hard but those that feel that way do not understand Financial Game Theory of Bitcoin. ⁠

Tesla: 

• Stock Split:

Tesla typically splits between $600-800 and we could get their next year. There is no promises, but keep chipping away. ⁠

Bitcoin: 

• Bull Market:

Per IA’s math, we are now ⅔ of the way through the bull market. Maybe more. Prepare accordingly. His plan is to be ready to short when the time comes. ⁠

• Selling Early:

Selling early is fine. This will be a big focus in 2025. Not what you make it is what you keep!