Rule Du Jour: Rule #59 Imagine The Future (Patreon)

🧠 Investing Rule: Imagine the Future

Core Principle: Build your investing edge by projecting five years ahead—then positioning accordingly. I was trained in this in CH in early 90's and always rem "Langfristige Aussichten"

The Rule: Craft a “Langfristige Aussichten”

Dedicate focused time each week to visualize the world five years from now. Track how technology, society, and the global economy might shift. Develop a long-term outlook that imagines what the world will look like circa 5 years from now. I prob spend 10 hours a week doing this. Use this lens to guide your investments into sectors and companies positioned to lead, and this helps you make life-changing wealth by getting in early!

🔧 How to Apply This Rule

1. Visualize the Future
Set aside 60 minutes weekly to imagine how the world might change. Consider:

• Which technologies will reshape our lives?

• What behaviors will consumers adopt?

• What global challenges or catalysts might emerge?

Ask yourself:
➡️ What problems will demand solving?
➡️ What industries will thrive—or fade?

2. Identify Catalysts & Disruption
Spot the macro forces and innovations that could drive transformation.
📌 Past example: The internet in the 1990s - I was like - how will we store all these webpages... brought me to EMC and made a killing on that trade.
📌 Now: AI, quantum computing, energy storage, autonomy, bots

Look for enablers of these shifts:

• Then: EMC for storage

• Now: TSLA for Energy Storage and Autonomy and Bots, Nvidia for AI chips, BTC for future of money etc

3. Play Both Sides of the Curve

• Go long on early-stage disruptors with asymmetric upside

• Exit or short when hype peaks or better alternatives emerge
  📉 Example: Long EMC in the 1990s, short it in 2020 when things got too frothy

4. Spot Pivots Early
Identify incumbents evolving to meet new realities:

• 📱 Apple shifting to services - I had an iPod and therefore had a little Apple position, and immediately got the first iPhone when they came out and tripled down.

• 📺 Netflix pivoting to streaming - imaginining the demise of blockbuster was easy. I was an early adopter of Netflix where we could have 4 DVDs out at a time... never had time to watch any however.

• 🧐 Google on Search - I recall even envisioning GPS based Cellphones way before they existed (2004) and the power of location-based Search... which made things like Uber possible.

• 🛒 Amazon pivoting out of books and building AWS

Invest in those showing strong adaptability and fundamentals.

5. Validate and Iterate
Pressure-test your five-year vision using:

• Industry reports

• Expert interviews

• X posts from thought leaders
  Stay nimble—adapt as new evidence strengthens or contradicts your outlook.

✅ Why It Works

Thinking in five-year arcs unlocks early access to exponential returns and shields you from missing these seismic shifts.
This mindset—rooted in my training nearly 36 years ago —transforms imagination into durable alpha.

“The best way to predict the future is to invest in it.” IA 2025