IA Weekly Nuggets (June 7-11, 2025) (Patreon)

Thanks, Josh, for collecting.

• Tesla:

  • Cost Basis:

  IA has a large TSLA bag of shares and options. His original cost is $17.59 a share, but with the triple digit layers he has done his cost basis is likely around $160 per share. Nibble or hedge tops, go hard at bottoms. Note he has more than quadrupled his bag over the last ⁠2 years.

  • Risk Reward:

  There are tons of other assets, but IA can’t find an asset with a better risk reward. Even despite all the shit from yesterday, IA finds TSLA less risky than BTC - and he is only 30% TSLA. He is working to get that to 50%⁠

  • Perspective:

  5 weeks ago, TSLA was under $220. TSLA is $300 today and folks are freaking out. ⁠tesla⁠ Wall St Expectations: Wall St expects TSLA profit growth to grow 195% in 5 years, and NVDA 170%. Wall St is way off, but are still directionally correct.

  • $350:

  IA sees a potential for TSLA to hit $350 soon if SPX rips to a new all time high. ⁠

  • FSD in China:

  FSD in China hits 105 days of being accident-free. Zero accidents reported, and these are the hardest roads on the planet.

• China nows allows TSLA to export Driver Data in China... This is going to explode the FSD capability, which is already perfect in China to be extraordinarily perfect. Nobody really understands this and no matter how many times I try and explain it. Nobody believes. ⁠

  • $820:

  IA hints he believes TSLA could hit $820 in 2 years.

• TSLL: IA recommends selling TSLL and swapping it to TSLA in the $350 range.

  • Drones:

  Musk has hinted at drones. ⁠

  • Waymo vs Robotaxi:

  Waymor rallies on pre-mapped 3D maps of its operational areas to function. It costs 180k. Robotaxi uses end-to-end neural networks for perception planning, and control allowing it to function anywhere in the world for $37,490.

• Oh, and by the way, humans have a preference to ride in cars that have no other humans in them. Uber is ⁠soon to be dead when TSLA scales.

• Trading and Investing:

  • Job Market:

  Job market is toast and has been for quite some time. IA knows folks at all the Mag7s, and there is very little hiring happening unless it is for AI Gods. ⁠

• IA and AI Background: IA boasts a robust education and extensive experience in financial markets, holding a bachelor’s in banking and finance, a degree in financial risk management, an MDP from Kellogg, and a Master’s in Finance from Wharton. At 20, he earned $100,000 while others toiled in libraries. Despite his academic credentials, he believes this community offers greater learning opportunities. IA found university classes dull, rarely attending, and in his final year at college, he worked at an investment bank, still securing second-class honors. He values real-world experience over formal education and, if given the chance, would skip university altogether today.⁠

  • Risk Management:

  A member asks IA why he sells his MSTR rather than selling an ATM or ITM call. For IA it is about reallocation to balance, as he has an extreme problem with MSTR. For Risk management purposes he needs to unload and reposition. He often sells calls short term in nature, some medium term, eg. the CEP 3 legged stool. The premiums aren’t worth the trouble of nailing an exit.

• ATR:

The ATR Model is designed primarily for medium-term volatility analysis and signal confirmation, which makes it more reliable and stable on mid-to-higher timeframes. ⁠

• 4 HR Time Frame:

The 4HR time frame is IA’s “sweet spot” time frame for balancing between the noise of shorter timeframes and the slow response of other ones. ⁠

• Rotation Model:

Remember with the Rotation Model, 3 steps. 1) pick the right assets that have a solid 2 year future outlook 2) configure 3) be patient. Let the model do the deals, don’t force it.

• Middle Class:

The middle class are mostly wage slaves. They think they are earning more by getting a 2% raise, but really with 14% debasement they get poorer every year.

• MSTY:

IA is confident he can make more selling CCs on MSTR than MSTY’s return.

Bitcoin

• Miners:

IA warned people for 4 years about miner allocations to never be more than 5% of your portfolio. Most listened, some did not. ⁠general-chat⁠

• SMLR:

SMLR is not a good company, it is a zombie. Hence it trades at 80% of it’s BTC bag.