Elon and the Third Party (Patreon)

I spent the afternoon working on this, and as of now, about 29.5% of my portfolio is allocated to Tesla. That could change when the pre-market opens Sunday night.

Let me try frame this up in good and bad for Elon and Tesla.

The Good: What Elon Could Gain

1. Looks More Independent

By distancing himself from Trump, Elon could protect himself if Tesla benefits from Trump-era policies. It makes him look neutral, not playing favorites.

2. Political Power

If his party grabs even a few seats in Congress, Elon could become a key power broker. Democrats and Republicans might need his support to pass laws.

3. Protection for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI

Running his own party may help Elon push ideas he cares about—like going to Mars, AI development, and free speech—while shielding his businesses from political attacks.

4. Long-Term Goals

This could help him shape national policy in a way that supports his futuristic visions, like colonizing Mars and creating safe AI. His control of X (formerly Twitter) gives him a powerful media platform too.

The Bad: What Could Go Wrong

1. Investors Might Get Nervous

Big investors don’t like political drama. If they think Elon’s political moves are risky, they might sell Tesla stock. That could cause short-term damage.

2. Some Customers Are Turned Off

Elon’s politics are already hurting Tesla’s image.

3. It’s a Big Distraction

Starting a political party takes time, money, and energy. If Elon gets too distracted, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI could suffer.

4. It Might Not Work

Third parties usually fail in U.S. politics. If this flops, Elon risks losing political influence and looking out of touch.

How Is Tesla Doing?

Short-Term Concerns

• Tesla’s stock is already way off the highs despite the launch of Robotaxi and tons of other great news eg new surprise battery factory, infinite demand for megapacks, new model 2 incoming etc

• Some of this decline is tied to Elon’s political drama.

Long-Term Hope

• Tesla still has unreal technology—like AI, self-driving, and robotaxis and is at the center of colliding S Curves.

• If Trump’s policies help the economy (like cutting regulations or boosting manufacturing), Tesla could benefit.

• Some analysts are optimistic and expect a rebound.

Possibly, Yes

• If Elon’s party wins even a few seats, it could have real power in a divided Congress.

• His focus on centrist, moderate voters might appeal to those tired of extremes. Rem the Vice President had to vote to make the difference this week.

Is This a Big Deal or Just Noise?

Some Say It’s a Stunt eg Cern Basher, Jo Bhakdi, etc

• The public fight with Trump could be staged.

• If Tesla thrives under Trump’s economy, Elon can say, “See, I wasn’t on his side,” avoiding legal trouble.

Others Say It’s Real

• Market reactions (stock drops, customer backlash) show it’s having real effects.

• Whether the party succeeds or not, it’s already shaking things up.

Bottom Line

• This one is not just “a nothing burger.” It has some danger but if his goal is to bring more balance to the polarized two party system... it may be an act of genius. Alexandra Merz beleives this

• He will set this up, run in a good dozen of districts, win three / four Senators, win 6 - 10 House Reps, and be the decisive votes for either party who holds the "majority". This will actually protect him much more than any other situation

• Whether it’s a smart strategy or a costly mistake remains to be seen.

Too late to hedge now with options but will assess first thing Monday morning.