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Deribit Call Options (Patreon)

Published:
2025-07-08 17:49:16
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Most action is betting on $140,000 BTC by September.

I've been watching the Deribit options action for four years. They rarely miss, not saying it's going to happen, but it's a pretty bullish sign when $784 million is being wagered.

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Comments

Maine McEachern

Meaning: a preponderance of traders believe that BTC will be (significantly) above $140k come September, correct? (If the strike price of the call options is $140k)

iroc007

Is mstr still the best proxy at this stage?

Matthew Post

James, what would that give SOL for a price assuming the other 11 ETF’s are approved and BTC hits 140k?

Kp monty

Realistically speaking, what changes in the macro narrative that causes btc to go to $140k?

Daniel882

There was a massive candle for 300k end of June…. What happened. I had started following this following James advice. In March the biggest candle was £300k end of June with like £500m volume. Then on the downside big candles could be mostly hedging and not price predictions no?

rkcrypto

While I appreciate the bullish sentiment, It’s meaningless to look that far out. That can change drastically over the next 60+ days. In addition, you’re not focusing on max pain. Max pain is $95k. MMs want to inflict max pain and they control the markets, hence market maker. Obviously, it’s not that simple otherwise BTC would trade @ max pain for every options expiration. But having said that, MMs aren’t going to allow price to trade $45k above max pain. I wouldn’t focus on anything beyond the next 7 days. Between now and Friday July 11 there is a bias to the downside. Between now and then max pain drops from $109k to $106k.

rkcrypto

While BTC can certainly go to $140k and higher for the bull run blow off top, it’s not a lock. I anticipate $120-$125k and anything beyond that is gravy.

onedollaretc

I recall similar aggressive call option by some whale with short time expiry, like for the next 2 weeks then (i think James posted it last month). What happened to that call? $800M exp worthless?

Adam Toth

OTM call options can be sold at a massive profit even if the price moves only 5-10% up if you sell way before expiry. It does not mean that we get 140k by expiry, it just means they are bullish and think this strike price has chances of making a good return.

Adam Toth
>>179770547

I would buy options like this if I thought the price is likely to go up 5-10% in a month or so.