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IA Top and Bottom Bitcoin Indicator (Patreon)

Published:
2025-08-17 15:28:47
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

The top and bottom indicators are still showing orange, which corresponds to level four. We haven’t yet reached level five (dark orange) or level six (red).

What I want to draw attention to is the delta between Bitcoin’s price and its 200-day moving average.

  • In 2017, during the peak, Bitcoin’s price was about 4–5 times higher than the 200-day moving average.

  • In April 2021, it was over 3 times higher.

  • Today, price is only about 18% above the 200-day moving average.

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Comments

FOS Holder

The size of the bear will be written by the size of the bull...hold steady for now. The bull is still lumbering along.

SovereignSats

The bitcoin cycle originally was based on the halving, and heavily influenced by miner activity and retail fear 'n greed. With institutions, treasuries, and megafunds controlling all the otc buys and snatching up any table scraps the miners have to offer, This Cycle is Different! The volatility is much less, the dips and peaks less sharp, and the macro price trajectory much more like taking the stairs instead of the elevator. The chartist always want to use their rear-view mirror approach and show that what happen before will just happen again. But with time comes maturity. New disruptive technology and new economic influences will continue to change the investment landscape looking forward, forever. Exchanges can manipulate facts and conspire to alter the medium to short term outcomes, in order to profit on the human need for repetition for everything to make sense. But to think that something can't change, just based on what it used to do and the patterns it used to exhibit, will lead people to be in one of three camps. There will be people who make things happen, people who watch things happen, and the majority people who are left saying WTF is happening. If you continue to look soley in the rearview mirror at the valley behind, you may be unprepared to thrive into the mountanous journey that lies ahead.

iroc007

So a 1x like 200k is possible?

TT

So 100k is the new button now and we should be going anywhere from 1 to 4 x from here if history repeat?

Jacob Eminger

seems like the end of the 4 year cycle to me

Kevin
>>184257240

If you believe in the four year cycle. There is too much institutional Money going in. Too much regulation being passed. Powell will be removed in Spring. Trump will unleash aggressive rate cuts. AND if you believe that BTC is strongly correlated to global liquidity….There is no headwind. Of course….all of that could be wrong. That’s the beauty of investing. It’s a gamble. A hedged gamble. I’m comfortable with in my position.

Mashi

That's nothing

Cmoney$$

Hhahaa love the meme! Curious information indeed thanks as always Jimmy!

Merkel Sailor

The numbers mentioned here don't seem to match the chart. Seems more like: 2017 = 240% above, 2021 = 90% above, now = 18% above

voodoo

The bull 🐂 hasn’t even got out yet