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Why Market Dipped Hard Today (Patreon)

Published:
2025-09-26 01:01:06
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Days like this are no fun. I know everyone got hit unless they were 100% short the market. If you are using Leverage have liquidation levels far out of reach.

Now some of the good news...

Despite the crash BTC is still up 1% for September. Tesla up 30%, ETH down 12% SOL down 1%

The Bad News

BTC has had 2 of its 3 biggest liquidation events of 2025 in the last 4 days and $2.75B in long liquidation leverage has been wiped.

The Why

I’ve been trying to pinpoint why things fell apart today. Here’s my list — it could be a perfect storm of issues.

  • First trigger - Geopolitical Tensions (Russia–NATO) - so far Russian aircraft violated NATO airspace, incursions in Romania, Poland, possibly Denmark. NORAD intercepted Russian bombers + Su-35s near Alaska and finally NATO’s Rutte: members can target Russian aircraft if needed - yikes

  • Massive Options Expiry BTC ($17B) and ETH ($5–6B) options expiring Sept 26 - Max pain: BTC $110K, ETH $3,700 → prices gravitating here, volatility high. Whales often push toward max pain; expiry pinning prices amid bearish positioning

  • US Government Shutdown Risks - same crap all over again. Odds vary 30–77% (Kalshi & others) ahead of Sept 30 deadline. Past shutdowns (2018–2019) caused market corrections

  • Strong Economic Data - Q2 2025 GDP revised to 3.8% (vs. 3.3% expected, prior 3.3%) suggests strong economy means less chance of Fed cuts hurts risk assets like TSLA

  • Fear & Greed Index: 47 (fear)

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Comments

lucky7

Would be interesting to see where those massive bitcoin liquidation come from any idea James!

hennie

For Solana enthusiasts: Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital, a major player in SOL, revealed he has as much invested in Solana as in Bitcoin. In his YouTube talk, "Phase II of The Bull Market" (at 40:32), he highlights SOL’s significant upside potential. (Full disclosure: I’m currently out of SOL for self-preservation, prioritizing lower risk over higher returns.) But a word of caution: take bold claims with a grain of salt, especially from those with skin in the game. Look at Arthur Hayes, who hyped a 126x prediction for a token, only to sell a week later after “suddenly” discovering issues with its tokenomics. Not his first rodeo pulling stunts like this. Why a conman like Hayes still gets invited to speak everywhere baffles me. Crypto can be a shady world—stay sharp.

Perrin8039

I'm happy I kept my position in PMs this year.

Gary
>>188437996

My calcs show SOL down about 25% from the $253 price a week ago. Where did you get 66%?

Michael
>>188445111

Thank you. Take profits early people. It’s human nature to hype one’s bags. Cryptos best use case is to transfer wealth. I think this will change over time.

DorianSzabo

Gold and silver just getting warmed up…. Platinum too.. Metals and oil will be outperforming for awhile

CryptoMeme

These are the best days. It’s why I wait patiently for weeks if not months with 30% dry powder. My guess is we will see 100k. Unless we break and hold below the 50w sma, but probabilities are low that, that happens imho.

Lit Homie

My $80k sol liquidated at 191.1 Ur welcome for the pump :(

Impulseive
>>188467699

My lord. What kind of leverage were you playing with? That is way more money than I would ever feel comfortable having above 3x... Mostly because I lost $30k when the Japan carry trade flipped last year...

Gary

No worries. I’m in SOL too and it feels like 66%!

Crypto Spidey

Apparently gold, silver and stocks are immune this 'perfect storm' which magically tanks crypto while everything else is fine. At least Tom Lee has shut the fuck up about Ethereum for a few days.