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Undeniable impact (Patreon)

Published:
2025-10-01 17:46:10
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

My fears since late 2022 are coming true.

U.S. job openings fell from a peak of 12 million in March 2022 to 7.23 million by August 2025, the lowest since C19. The decline accelerated after AI adoption surged following ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, hitting young workers hardest Employment for ages 22–25 in AI-exposed fields dropped 13%, while entry-level software developer jobs fell nearly 20%.

Major tech firms cut tens of thousands of roles in 2023–2025, citing AI-driven restructuring.

Despite all this, the S&P 500 climbed more than 50% on AI-fueled efficiency gains and corporate profit growth.

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Comments

HanksyRulz

Unfortunately routing for BTC to $1million will mean the world around us might not make for a great place. I hope I'm wrong. But people calling for dollar to crash so their BTC bags go up have no idea how hard life bill be for most people. Succeeding whilst the whole of society around you collapses doesn't sound like fun to me...

Cryptoknife

Every generation says that the future looks glum; apocalypse sells and sounds smart; yet every generation has been wrong, society continues to improve and get better. We live far better now than anyone else in history. Most of us have far better “luxuries” than kings, the rockafelers, and the Vanderbilt’s.

6Sixnine9

We can only invest in what ultimately destroys us.

Chuz

With respect there is a plausible deniable impact. The peak after c19 was abnormal and not inline with trend which would put it at about 9 million ish and you could even put the smaller decline from 9 to 7 million down to US government policy. As you well know, correlation does not mean causation.

Coding Monkey

This is also when they started rate hikes, I think that has a much higher impact on jobs than ai

HVEK

What does the Reversion in correlation of the two suggest?

Chewie

Inevitable indeed. US Recession likely 2026 But Bitcoin, AI and TSLA train should continue!

Karl

I'm not sure the job downfall is as directly correlated to ChatGPT as it seems. The 2021 hiring spree was very out of balance and a correction seems natural. I do think it plays a part now though. Also, undeniable that companies have figured out how to do less with more...

mrcanning

What companies are tied to social welfare and domestic pubçlic security?

Metta

GROK: AI contributed significantly to the slowdown in hiring for specific sectors and demographics—especially young and entry-level workers—but it's not the primary or sole cause of the overall decline in job openings. The broader drop began before widespread AI adoption (peaking in March 2022, pre-ChatGPT) and is driven more by macroeconomic factors like cooling demand, higher interest rates, and a return to pre-pandemic labor market balance. However, AI's surge post-November 2022 has amplified the pain in vulnerable areas, creating a "hollowing out" of entry-level opportunities that could reshape career ladders long-term. Key Evidence for AI's Role Correlation with AI Adoption Timeline: Job openings fell ~25% from the 2022 peak to ChatGPT's release, but another ~18% afterward—aligning with explosive AI tool uptake (e.g., 90% of U.S. companies adopted some AI by mid-2025, per PwC). Stanford researchers found generative AI tools directly reduced hiring in automatable roles, with an 11% drop in entry-level postings over the last 18 months versus a 7% rise for senior roles. Disproportionate Hit to Youth and Entry-Level: The 13% employment drop for 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed fields contrasts with just 0.8% growth for older college grads in tech. Fields like software development (down 20% for juniors) and accounting saw the steepest losses, as AI handles coding, data entry, and basic analysis faster/cheaper. A 2025 BLS projection incorporates AI, estimating it could boost productivity in these areas but suppress entry-level demand by 10–15% through 2033. Real-World Examples: Tech layoffs totaled ~78,000 AI-linked jobs in H1 2025 alone (e.g., via tools like GitHub Copilot automating dev work). X discussions highlight this, with users noting AI offsetting half of August 2025's meager 22,000 total job gains. Broader lists circulate of ~40 roles at risk by end-2025, including software devs, customer service, and graphic designers. Counter-Evidence: Broader Economic Drivers Recent studies emphasize AI's effects are "emerging but not yet disruptive" economy-wide. Overall U.S. employment grew robustly (+2.5% since 2022), with AI causing hiring freezes rather than mass layoffs. A Federal Reserve analysis found no "massive upheaval" from ChatGPT, attributing just 8% of tech employment declines for recent grads to AI versus broader slowdowns. Key non-AI factors: Monetary Policy: Fed rate hikes (from near-zero in 2022 to 5.25–5.5% by 2023) cooled hiring across sectors like construction (-115,000 openings in Aug 2025 alone). Post-COVID Normalization: The 2022 peak reflected pandemic hiring surges; openings normalized as quits and hires fell (both down 20–30% since peak). Other Pressures: Geopolitical tensions, inflation (UK/OECD forecasts 3.5% in 2025 spilling over), and corporate cost-cutting (e.g., Salesforce using AI but also broader efficiencies) compound issues. X chatter blames a mix, including H-1B visas and tariffs. Outlook and Nuances AI's net effect may be positive long-term—boosting productivity (e.g., +17.9% projected software dev jobs by 2033, per BLS)—but short-term pain is real for juniors, potentially widening inequality. Women face higher risks (28% of roles exposed, per UN 2025 Gender Snapshot), and adaptation (e.g., upskilling in AI oversight) is key. History shows young workers adapt fastest to tech shifts, per Bloomberg. If AI investments ($360B in 2025) translate to new roles, recovery could accelerate; otherwise, recession risks loom with 263,000 weekly jobless claims (highest in 4 years). In sum, AI accelerated the decline in targeted areas but didn't "cause" the full drop—think catalyst, not root. For young job-seekers: Focus on AI-complementary skills like ethics, strategy, or creative integration to future-proof.

dean2012ad
>>189014391

Luxuries and the striving for more comfort is not necessarily a good thing for humanity. Only in gratefulness and our willingness to work hard and to love and serve others do we improve. TBS I am so grateful for a hot shower daily.

Nik
>>189020933

Correlation isn't always causation. In this case, inverse correlation. The trend clearly started before GPTs release. There are also macro factors. I believe big job loss is ahead due to AI, but this chart is not the smoking gun showing that.