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Radio War Nerd EP #465 – Russia-Ukraine War Update: Kursk/Pokrovsk (Patreon)

Published:
2024-08-23 02:54:03
Edited:
2024-08-23 03:00:56
Imported:
2024-08
Tags:

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Content

Recorded: August 22, 2024

Update on Ukraine's incursion into Kursk and Russia's accelerating push in Donetsk towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk...

Total time: 59:52

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

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Comments

Henry Ermer

Brighton/Sheepshead/Manhattan Beach are all still extremely Russian/Ukrainian. Brooklyn is also getting a lot more Uzbek emigres/store fronts than anytime I've been alive

Pay

Saving this for Friday

Sean Atkinson

the comment on the Democratic National Comvention was spot on. As was the one on DSA

Sean Atkinson

Are they predominantly right wing, like the gusanos?

CR

If Russia is smart they will (should have long ago, actually) hired every Taliban and Iran RG with a brain to pore over anti-NATO insurgency. Because if Kursk is being occupied like NATO (the U.S.) has occupied everything else for the last quarter century, their shock and awe blitzkrieg is going to fizzle like a wet fart against goat farmers with AKs. Even the FSB and Interior Army can outdo them if they can strategize for even a second.

CR

Who’d imagine that a bunch of psycho ultranationalists whose identity is “anti-Russia” would take no prisoners when they had the chance.

Ander Pierce

I wanted to, but my desire for instant gratification was too strong

NYCM&AHole

I’m gonna be down at the shore so I couldn’t meet up in nyc anyways! Have fun!

Malte Joe Frid-Nielsen

Dolan's chipper "can't complain!" is the hardest I've laughed all morning!

fw

Probably a foolish question, but what is 'RG' here?

fw

TBF, not a single one of those talking up project '25 gave a shit about the heritage foundation in the years I've seen/participated in people yelling about them - it's less 'intent to wage' and more 'another new plan after the roaring (bipartisan, of course) success of the old'. HF is also very much a international affair too, projecting US soft power abroad has been / is a key part of their strat; US far right training british (and others! They're just wiping the floor there) provocateurs and other financial/logistical/personnel finagling has already had huge effects in europe broadly over the last few years. The regulatory, legislative, administrative, medical etc capture people are/were terrified of coming from trump's milieu is the exact playbook we've seen projected elsewhere to great success.

Mathew Muntz

Brighton 6th st has great Uzbek and Georgian restaurants next door to each other - Euroasia Cafe and Little Georgia

Hans Anders

On ‘old style’ planetariums, there is the cutest little one in Franeker built in the 18th century. It features the six then known planets, and was built by a layman in his living room. It still works and is still accurate.

Kevin Walsh

The Revolutionary Guard.

fw

Yes, it's baked in - the coopted/vibe(-or-meme)-ified version of the threat exists as partisan spectacle, and for the spectacle to work discussion of or action on the actual threat has to be quashed. Very managed opposition stuff. Had a similar issue years ago when trying to discuss Biden's obvious and long evidenced anti abortion tendencies and actions with the partisan nonsense about Roe v Wade leaving people utterly blinkered to exactly what ended up happening ! You're dead right about the belligerency, too

Matthias Höck

From an European perspective here: Putin wants to make Russia great again (obviously). It was greatest in the late 60s when it had all the Warsaw Pakt states, and we are kinda worried that he wants them back.

DumbDumDumbDumb

For the paleontologist son: the Bronx Zoo also has a large premium dinosaur animatronics section now if you have extra time to go up there

John Hieronymus

There was some discussion about a very important gas transport pipeline being threatened by the Kursk offensive, that was supposed to carry something like 30% of European gas from Russia, what happened with that?

JoR

Genuinely asking, is that still a worry with how lethargic and relatively unsuccessful their Ukraine adventure has been? (unsuccessful in the context of grand, full scale European invasions)

NYCM&AHole

And afterwards you can go to Arthur Ave in the Bronx for some legit delicious Italian food

Mark Ames

Good intel, thanks!

a clash of purple

From an American perspective: have at it. This millenia-long experiment in Western European self-governance has been a disaster. Let the Russian Empire stretch from Iberia to the Bering Strait. My government seems to have a different opinion for some reason, though.

Mark Ames

Manti vs Khinkali

Hans Anders

It’s the border gas metering station for the Druzhba pipeline that goes through Ukraine. All discussion about is was weird from the start. If Ukraine didn’t want gas through that pipeline, they could have sabotaged it on their own territory years ago.

Tyler Berglund

Great analysis by Ames and devils advocate by Dolan. No mention of the theory that Ukraine might have been after the Kursk nuclear plant but failed to reach it. I’m not fully committed to that theory but have heard ot floated by a few. I’m curious what Ames would think of it.

ploob

Interesting(to me at least) that Russian attempts to 'ransom' a nuclear facility is highly propagandized and hardly a peep on similar strategies on the part of Ukraine. And of course we all know Israel doesn't even have a program so don't even mention it in relation to Iran, Hezbollah, et al.

Mark Ames

It's in Sudzha. The Ukrainians took it. But they haven't thus far threatened to turn it off, probably because that would seriously piss off their EU sponsors. A particularly bad look after the Nord Stream arrest warrants. However I assume they're using it for some leverage in discussions with their European "partners". In the meantime, the gas is flowing and both Russia and Ukraine are still making bank on it.

Mark Ames

It's always possible, but based on how it's played out I'd sort of doubt it. They had some quality special forces units running wild in Kursk, probably could've made a few b-lines there and seized it and mined the hell out of it, if that's what they wanted to do. But that's not now the plan worked out.

AG

Ryan Grim was at the convention with the Breaking Points crew. They pointed out that there was genuine enthusiasm about where the dems are now. It's still gross but the people there are actually ready to fight for it.

Wolfgang Wentzell

trump wants to invade mexico. i don’t believe the “we didn’t start a war!” shit for a second

NYCM&AHole

Also took my 5 year old son to coney island this week and he loved it. There’s also an old school soda fountain in Carroll gardens that’s worth checking out too.

William

This incursion is a worthless waste of men and resources

Mark Ames

also a lot of smug, haven't seen this much smug self-assurance that the election is in the bag since the 2016 DNC

JoR

Maybe in the long run you'll be correct. But honestly, from their perspective, what's the alternative? Ukraine has already proven that they can't counterattack in Ukraine itself. If they negotiate now, they're fucked. So, this move revitalizes momentum, keeps your sponsors happy, and at least changes up the dynamic of the war.

CR

The biggest problem is that while Russia has finally accepted that the U.S. cannot and will never negotiate or engage in any form of good-faith diplomacy, Ukraine has the presumption of good faith because they are neighboring countries intertwined with each other for a millennium. They have to live with each other. This incursion, occurring just as the negotiations were reaching some semblance of common ground, could completely piss away any good faith Russia had left in the Ukrainian government. Why would they bother with anything less than unconditional surrender anymore? Anything less will include them breaking the deal the instant they can.

CR

In the same way we're blaming them for Nordstream and in the absolute fact that Ukraine intelligence is basically all American intelligence, so nothing the SBU or AFU special forces or any expeditionary force into Russia has done for the last decade wasn't known to the Americans before the Ukrainians even knew about it, I have zero doubts that not only was ransoming Kursk NPP considered, some psychopath at Langley ran up the flagpole a plot to turn Kursk NPP into another or even bigger Chernobyl. And given the absolute state of Banderite ultranationalists whose identity is so tied to being anti-Russian, that would have absolutely done the deed if we let them. If there was something that they were going to do that actually spooked the White House, which I don't believe ever happened, it was that. As a short and medium-term goal, it makes sense. It would have crippled Russia's logistics into Ukraine and created a huge amount of problems for Russia. But in the long-term, Russia would have disregarded the danger and the Red Army would have killed everything in its path until they reached the Polish border. And that's the best-case scenario.

CR

Russia isn't even west of Kharkiv. They're not stupid. They could flatten Kiev any time they want. But they have to live next to Ukraine forever. They have to live next to you forever. Whoever is feeding you this Make Russia Great Again line is flat out lying, and you're buying a load of shit just like the MAGA idiots who believe Trump. But at least Trump has said MAGA. Putin has never said anything to suggest that the empire or USSR should be restored. And certainly not the pact because, frankly, you're not worth the trouble.

JoR

Good faith? Cmon man what good faith does either side have with one another? Countries negotiate because they have to, not because of some 7th grade civics class ideas on good faith

CR

The interesting thing about Biden saying Ukraine conned the U.S., aside from giving future nazi revanchists ammo for their stabbed-in-the-back narrative, is that it’s the right thing to do, diplomatically. Russia would rather have a good relationship at the expense of the Ukrainian government than to be honest about the U.S. being the instigator all along. Putin will never stop look west, even though he should know better by now. And the even longer term fact is that eventually the U.S. will fuck him and Russia over again. Eventually, a successor to Putin will come to power who accepts this. That’s the worst part. Then they will split off from the west for good.

CR

The Heritage Foundation is so evil the only democratic accomplishment of this century, Obamacare, came from them.

fw

Not sure if this is the best place to mention it several days later, but if anyone knows of Lindybeige (youtuber) his most recent interview with a british volunteer is very interesting with regard to drones, tbis and strokes - this is about the sixth interview LB has released with the same guy, who is now a sapper and drone pilot after being blacklisted by the (intl?) legion for previous interviews. He also mentions PMC work in morocco dealing with wagner, Azov war politicking, as well as an israeli SF guy he spoke to about drone doctrine with. he shows off several models and talks about the diy munitions, models used, etc. If his general info about TBIs and strokes is believed - at one point he says that 60% of troops have had the former at one point or another including himself - then a lot of the statistics about strokes may not be as age related as thought.

Jimothy Realname

I (almost) wish the US would try to invade Mexico. It would be an absolute disaster in ways that can't even be fully articulated. Horrible for the people of Mexico, yes, but it would probably be a good thing for the world because America would be destroyed that much sooner.

Avrind Lavigne

this is how the Washington mindset works lol. thanks to accidents of geography and history, the only reason they can imagine for one country to interact with another is to rob and exploit it