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Radio War Nerd EP #479 — Ukraine Military Rot, feat. Peter Korotaev (Patreon)

Published:
2024-10-28 16:47:00
Imported:
2024-10
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Content

Guest: Peter Korotaev, Events In Ukraine

Recorded: October 25, 2024

Friend of the Show Peter Korotaev joins us again to discuss the many-layered shitshow that is Ukraine's military and politics — everything unreported in the famously free West, but widely reported among Ukrainians, to Ukrainians — to help us understand why the war is going from worse to worser.

Listen to our previous ep's with Peter:-EP #450 - Ukrainocracy-EP #319 - Escape From Kiev

Check out Peter's substack Events in Ukraine. Follow EiU on Twitter.

**Maps (from Deep State, affiliated with Ukraine Armed Forces)

*Ukraine War front

*Kupiansk front/Oskil River (north)

*North Donetsk Oblast: Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka + 2 largest unoccupied cities: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk

*Selidove, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk (central Donetsk)

Total time: 1:41:10

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

Files

Comments

NYCM&AHole

Lucky for you guys that Friday night was not a huge shift in the other WWIII hotspot

McMiller

Oh shit I’m on the Patreon app on an iPhone so I guess this will be our last time together

Inmybirkin

Damn no more RWN I guess 🙁

Angus Cairnie

John's update is that he's sick, absolutely undefeated

Sam Rands

Kudos for boycotting apple

NYCM&AHole

That shit was not clear - was it you can’t use a new subscription? Was it we can’t use the RSS feed? How will they not use the app if you’re currently subscribed?

GC

O/T of Ukraine: I have friends in at least 6 states who are persistently testing Covid-negative and have horrible/unusual respiratory symptoms. I'm resolving after about two months. Obvious guesses are that existing tests have are lot of false negatives with current Covid variants or that there's some new circulation of who knows what. (Among the less happy hypotheses: Covid has some immune-amnesia-like effect, measles-style).

NYCM&AHole

All I know is idk how all these people get Covid and I’ve never had it. And I’ve already used the goldeneye “I’m invincible” meme and it’s been over a year, so I’m concluding I didn’t jinx my ass.

Torgeir Tannenwald

My favourite part is the aillents part in the beginning

GC

In my limited experience, I've known (1) people who have died from it, one of them young and healthy; (2) people who got Long Covid and are struggling years later; (3) people who were laid up for a week and then felt fine [this was my experience]; (4) people who got it and felt like they had a mild cold; (5) people who had literally no symptoms and only knew they had it due to routine testing. Epidemiology is super-slow and difficult but I'm sure there are people trying to figure out the extent to which these outcomes are linked to individual characteristics vs. random vs. ???. Anyway, especially if you're not in a line of work where you were testing regularly, you might well have had one or more asymptomatic cases. Still makes you one of the lucky ones!

T

My wife, my kids and I have never had covid. My wife’s mother has never had it either. I’m an asthmatic and I’ve heard that asthma treatment somehow prevents covid. My wife her mom and my kids seem to have some kind of genetic immunity.

John Waaben

Yeah I’m confused and scared 😔

Damnboooi

If anyone has read John Le Carre’s “The Looking Glass War” its plot is very much reminiscent of the whole Ukraine situation. If you have time to read the plot summary on Wiki I recommend it.

Mark Ames

Gah! Maybe I wasn't clear enough about the Apple subscription shift: YOU CAN LISTEN TO RWN ON YOUR IPHONE PATREON APP FROM HERE UNTIL KINGDOM COME; BUT NEW LISTENERS WON'T BE ABLE TO SUBSCRIBE TO RWN VIA YOUR IPHONE PATREON APP STARTING NOVEMBER. THEY CAN SUBSCRIBE VIA ANY OTHER WAY, IE A WEB BROWSER, ANDROID ETC - AND LISTEN TO RWN ON THE PATREON APP, UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED KINGDOM COME.

John Waaben

thx for clearing that up boss

Mark Ames

note to future self: no announcements while recovering from pneumonia

John Waaben

Appreciate you guys working while sick and wishing you two a speedy recovery 🫡

William

Radio war nerd, where the topics are war, famine, and disease, and the hosts are afflicted with war, famine, and disease

NYCM&AHole

Or run them by people who do terms and conditions.

McMiller

We are small and cowering

Alejandro Pepsi

My sister-in-law is an ER nurse, she told me last Friday she had 8 cases of children with pneumonia in 1 shift. It is the season for it but she seemed like she was amazed at that number. Hope everybody feels better soon!

Yairo Martis

God, Rutte sucks so much. He's the perfect bottom feeder that could be appointed to NATO. He's just gonna go along with whatever just to keep the war(s) going.

William

The gall of this motherfucker to call himself Kutuzov

CR

I want to know more about the Russian side, but I don’t trust RWA or anyone like them.

CR

Putin emphasizing that he has his own equivalent to Article 5 with Allies towards whom the U.S. is a belligerent is baller.

Joshua Garcia

If you SIGN UP via Patron app using an Apple device they steal your gains - right? I’ve heard this across many podcasts. It’s mob extortion.

Sam Zeng

RWN Hospital company attrition report.

Jacob

A note on your talk on Ukrainian decentralization being touted as a benefit. I recently completed canadian officer’s basic training, and we were actually told just that. Ukraine succeeded because they were good in small teams and could think for themselves. Interesting to see that being dependent on small teams (along with a lack of good organization) has a ton of downsides.

KM

Is it likely that, if ukraine lose conventionally, NATO would back a giant guirella war which would be even bloodier and longer ?

Jimothy Realname

If anything, the slow grinding defeat of the Ukrainian military makes a guerrilla war (or at least a widespread one) a lot less likely

a clash of purple

So now that Russia and the DPRK have this mutual defense pact, does that mean we can finally de-escalate things on the Korean peninsula? No one's going to invade South Korea (except maybe Japan), and surely at this point even the U.S. has to give up on the idea of attacking the North. So let's chopper the troops home and start cleaning up minefields. The issue is settled. And yes, I'm aware that North Korea has blown up the only bridges crossing the 38th Parallel and officially declared South Korea to be their enemy. But that's on them. The focus should still be on de-escalation, especially since both sides have MAD deterrent. For America's part, we really, really need to give up on this trilateral military alliance with South Korea and Japan before the situation somehow gets even worse.

Karl Childers

i've seen claims that covid can cause long term immuno- compromisation but as a layperson i find it impossible to keep straight what's confirmed and what's speculation about this virus. if true though, the idea of permanent immune system damage is extremely frightening given that the majority of people have had it multiple times already. my understanding is that worse acute symptoms correlate to a higher chance of long covid and that cardiovascular damage is fairly well established as a long term effect of covid but beyond that idk

AG

Mark In order for your son, and you, to train effectively for health and fitness I cannot recommend enough a book called: The Big Book of Endurance Training and Racing by Dr. Phil Maffetone. It is an excellent guide and the author is an exceptional triathlete coach. If he needs to get strong I recommend 1) The Easy Strength Omnibook by Dan John 2) Simple and Sinister by Pavel Tsatsouline 3) The Armor Building Formula by Dan John 4) Enter the Kettlebell By Pavel Tsatsouline For mobility I recommend Original Strength by Tim Anderson. If he really wants to become an athlete, look good, and feel good these guides are excellent resources for fitness and health. If he doesn't know anything about weight lifting feel free to message back.

cstenzy

It's so funny that whenever the USSR is brought up they're always .5 secs away from saying "those degenerate k***s ruined our glorious Russian empire that was gonna raise the standard of living for everyone eventually"

Google Hushabye Vally

You're a fool if you actually think that the American empire would give up the ghost exactly how you described. Anyone sensible can agree that the best thing to deescalate that peninsula to have American military leave, but empire pride and war industry profits won't let that happen. The only way we can get peace in this climate is if one of the Koreas politically implodes like the USSR or South Africa.

a clash of purple

Well, there needs to be a stronger, more organized movement among the American populace pushing the government to withdraw. As an American, it's really embarrassing to me that the South Korean people have had to do all the work in fighting for more democracy and peace on the peninsula while most Americans don't care at all, except to sneer at Korean immigrants.

a clash of purple

They can do that? I mean, I'm not a lawologist, but that sounds extremely illegal. As in, an extremely easy court case to win against Apple that could cost them way more money than whatever they're making by skimming a few bucks off podcast subscriptions.

a clash of purple

I believe Putin's exact statement (translated from Russian) was: "Screw you! We're going to make our own NATO! With blackjack! And hookers! In fact, forget the NATO!" And then he and Kim Jong Un rode around on horses together.

a clash of purple

Now that they're friends and all, I hope Putin offers to coach Kim Jong Un to lose some of that weight. The DPRK press released some pictures of Kim riding a horse the other day, and I felt pretty bad for the horse. If he's serious about standing up to South Korea and their American imperialist puppetmasters, he needs to work on his appearance. Honestly, my advice to him would be to form a North Korean K-pop idol boy band to counteract South Korean cultural propaganda (which is so powerful that even Dolan has noticed it). He could be the first dictator idol. But it's gotta start with him slimming down considerably.

Hans Anders

He’s terrible, but I’ve never seen anyone shift blame for problems as efficiently as he did as PM. It’s exactly what NATO needs 😂

a clash of purple

The mention of North Korea in this episode reminds me: I think RWN should consider doing an episode about recent events in Korea and Japan. The current regime in Japan has revised their constitution to allow for more militaristic action, over the strong objections of the Korean and Japanese people, and is expanding their military. The new president of South Korea is a cringing toady for the Americans (who treat him with open contempt) and seems committed to forming a new trilateral military arrangement between America, Japan, and South Korea with the goal of antagonizing China and the DPRK, over the strong objections of the South Korean people. And North Korea has blown up the only two bridges crossing the 38th Parallel and revised their constitution to explicitly declare South Korea their enemy. There's a lot of trouble brewing in that part of the world, and as far as I know the mainstream Anglo press isn't covering it much (I did see one WaPo article about Japan's rearmament).

Peter Z

Bumbling NATO officials trying to stay relevant fits. But misses the billions that American defence contractors make from cannon fodder.

Joshua Garcia

That’s how I understand it. I’ve heard multiple podcasts tell listeners this.

Antipaganda

Thankyou both, and thankyou to the excellent guest. This filled in a lot of holes in my understanding of the situation.

Antipaganda

They were good early in the war at outmaneuvering the Russians, because the Russians were trying a Zerg rush. Now the Russians have turtled up very effectively, and it's a grind, which means logistics and engineering and large-scale co-ordination matters more.

Antipaganda

Excuse me, what kingdom's coming negates this guarantee? Should Ukrainians in Donetsk get ready to switch subs?

GG Allin Dulles

I could be wrong but I think they just mean you won't be able to do it through iTunes or whatever the official apple platform is?

JoR

I don't have an iPhone, but you should be able to download directly from the links/emails you get from patreon

JoR

Not to be coy but who's gonna he left to fight the guerilla war? Not even trying to be mean, but it would probably have to be primarily female-lead.

JoR

That's fair but you should never fully trust anyone. Even RWN deserves skepticism on topics they're passionate about (although this is rare and I feel they're usually objective).

Mathamphetamine

I'm sure it's been asked before, but is the first 15 minutes of every episode complaining about medical ailments part of some kind of OpSec? Or do our guys just need more vitamin C?

Damnboooi

That’s true. And there isn’t a genius like Smiley waiting in the wings to pick up the pieces in real life

j

Re. Melatonin not working: it’s strange you mention it, but I once did a deep dive into Covid, immunity, and B3 (niacin). It was inspired by a sort of nutcase, but interesting nonetheless. I would day try taking 500mg to 1f of vitamin B3, i.e. niacin in the nicotinic acid form. It will make you flush, you will have chills, etc. but your body may be deprived of serotonin, such that there is little available to convert to melatonin to satisfy even your base needs. Niacin is the most base level precursor to tryptophan, serotonin, and ultimately melatonin in your body.

G

It's tradition.

Mao Zedong Superstar

This is the kind of geopolitical analysis only the mind palaces of rwn listeners can put together

Roland Thompson

Wait so will I not be able to stream this podcast through this (Patreon) app on my iphone anymore? Or are you saying that I just won’t be able to stream the show through the apple podcast app?

Roland Thompson

That was the original plan, as many had assumed and was confirmed in western media in early 2022. We (western intelligence) were training whatever fascist psycho’s to act as stay-behind networks if Russia invaded and Kiev fell (as was assumed by the west) The very first days of the invasion was America (and I think at least to some degree Putin) surprised that Kiev didn’t roll over, and Kiev asking for weapons to fight a conventional war (since we’d been pouring weapons meant for a sustained guerrilla war up until then) But to answer your question, as someone else mentioned: Who the hell would fight that guerilla war now? The way things are going, NATO is gonna fight this conventional war down to the last Ukrainian male left.

a clash of purple

You don't need a lot of people for a guerrilla campaign, especially if your backers don't care if you win or lose. And part of running a successful insurgency is provoking the occupiers into bloody reprisals, which create more vengeful recruits for your insurgency. That's why Dolan and Ames have always said that you should never wish the insurgent's life even on your worst enemy. Brutal reppression from the occupier isn't just an unfortunate side effect of guerrilla tactics, it's actually a recruiting tactic for the guerrillas. You *want* the invaders to commit atrocities against your own people, because you can wave the bloody shirt and the survivors will be more willing to fight for you. During the break-up of Yugoslavia, you'd get things like Croat rebels leaving arms in a peaceful Croat village, then ambushing a Serbian patrol nearby, specifically so the Serbs would do a massacre in the village and force them to join the fighting. You wouldn't need many people to get the ball rolling. Hell, you might not even need any actual Ukrainians. Just sneak a couple operators in there and ambush some Russian soldiers. Provoke them into committing atrocities against the civilians, then make sure everyone in the world hears about it. At least some of those Ukrainians who chose to desert rather than fight for the Zelenskyy regime will be willing to kill and die for revenge at that point. This is an old and familiar game for the disgusting cynical freaks who run America. I really hope it doesn't happen in Ukraine, but I'm sure it's one of the contingencies NATO is most eager for.

cogandbal

If only Kim looked like bts he would have unified korea 20 years ago

JoR

They're old lol

Hans Anders

It’s about the patreon app on iPhone. You can still listen then if you’re subscribed now. But if you want to subscribe then, you can’t do it through the patreon iPhone app. You’d have to visit the patreon website. So I think you’re safe. As are all subscribed people listening to the episode

Doug Cartel

At least NATO aren't hypocrites: their response to both Ukraine and Russia's demands for security guarantees has been "fuck you".

Jacob Bucci

There was a recent klippenstein Substack citing an anonymous senior pentagon official that Ukraine was actually winning the war of attrition, but the media isn’t reporting it because it’s too politically valuable to have Russia as an existential threat. Without any accountability in the blob and their media apparatus it’s entirely possible for them to deny reality and construct their own, even if it reads like an axed episode of the twilight zone to everyone else.

Li Hongzhi

Brother have you ever had a conversation with someone in their 60s and 70s?

Matthew Wood

Hmm - on mark’s pneumonia- odd that the test didn’t show for covid as it would be looking for the distinctive spike protein, if that’s not there then neither is covid, plus melatonin is only going to effect the timing of sleep, rather than quality - it’s a signalling hormone, not a somatic drug … then again, I don’t believe exogenous melatonin does anything anyway - you’d be better off taking kava or a green tea extract

E C

Hey guys, looking for thoughtful answers. If the zelensky regime is so unpopular and moral is so low amount the Ukrainians, why has his government not collapsed? And if Russian forces are making progress and in such better shape, why have they not had a significant breakthrough like they did back in WW2 during their big pushes to Germany?

Mark Ames

You don't have to do anything, it's only for new subscribers. If for some reason you unsubscribe and then subscribe again, do it on a web browser. You can always continue using the iphone patreon app to listen to the show.

Mark Ames

Thanks, this is helpful!

Mark Ames

Thanks, I'll give this a try. That's really interesting. My doctor was perplexed.

Mark Ames

You can use the app to listen all you like. You just won't be able to be a new subscriber using the app to buy a subscription. Since you're already a subscriber none of this is relevant to you.

Tom Warner

a) lack of a coherent alternative or much in the way of organized opposition, plus the fact that it's the Zelensky government that gets the foreign aid and support b) with a handful of exceptions where someone managed to hit an undermanned sector of frontline by surprise, this war has been a grinding attritional and positional affair. the fact that the grinding happens faster now hasn't (yet) changed that; it's still necessary for attacking forces to thoroughly, painstakingly destroy each position before moving to the next one