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Radio War Nerd EP #478 — Israel's War on Lebanon, feat. Cyrus (Patreon)

Published:
2024-10-23 01:25:00
Imported:
2024-10
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Guest: Cyrus, MENA researcher

Recorded: October 21, 2024

We're joined by RWN guest "Cyrus" from Beirut, to talk about Israel's sectarian war strategy in Lebanon, Nasrallah's legacy, profound changes taking place in the Arab and Muslim world that have so far gone little reported, and Cyrus's own recent travels through Iraq and Jordan...

Check out RWN EP #233 with Cyrus on the Arab Spring & 2020

Total time: 1:07:56

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

Files

Comments

Isaac Suárez

That point about Nasrallah underestimating Israel’s threat to him personally is fascinating- and tragic. Ive been reading Patrick Seale’s biography of Abu Nidal. A point he hits, again and again, is that Israel targets “moderates.” Many speculated that Abu Nidal, knowingly or not, was carrying out Israeli preferences by killing moderate Palestinian leaders. Many within the PLO believed that he was a Mossad agent for this reason. The point that Seale makes is that Israel went after moderates in the first years of the resistance, but then laid off as Abu Nidal killed moderates (Abu Nidal was notably never targeted by Mossad and his bases were never hit by the IDF- he also purged members of his group who fought with the PLO against Syria during the “War of the Camps.”) For this reason, Seale argues, he was strategically useful to Israel. Whatever Abu Nidal’s role- the broader point regarding Israel holds true. They kill moderates to radicalize the opposition and make peace (and thus recognition of Palestine) impossible. Nasrallah, clearly, forgot this hard learned lesson. Israel does not want diplomacy- they want total victory and are clearly willing to extend the state of war for as long as is necessary to attain their larger revanchist aims. The very fact that Nasrallah “moderated”- and offered the chance for peace- made him a target (the opposite of protecting him.) For all of us who want peace and dignity for the Palestinian people- this is a tragic and bitter lesson. Great episode, keep up the great work!

mike

Amazing interview, radio war nerd is the goat. First

That Guy

Great interview, do you know where to find his article on 2003 as a meteor strike?

a clash of purple

No matter how much I hate America and its clique of sycophants and enforcers, it's not enough.

Sean Kelly

Fantastic insights, thanks!

a clash of purple

Several times, Cyrus mentioned that the Saudis have stopped funding anti-Shia propaganda. I'd like to hear more about that. The Sunni-Shia conflict has been one of the main themes of RWN, and Cyrus makes it sound like the schism is currently at a relatively low level of violence.

William

Lebanon sounds like Yemen, in the sense that the local organization most affiliated with the axis of resistance seems to be the only viable political apparatus

William

It would be hilarious if the US and Isrally efforts to divide and sow discord among the different factions in the Middle East actually served those factions to pull together. In the end, I guess it would depend on how long this goes on for; does it last long enough to forge a cohesive identity or does it dissolve into in-fighting soon after their victory, a la British efforts in Saudi Arabia around ww1

William

Isreal is so fucking stupid. They’ve had two years to see how Russia has struggled against 6-8 years of fortification; hezbollah has had, what, 16 years to fortify even WORSE terrain for an invading army?

Jimmy B

Great episode.

Meh

Great episode

jack flowers

there have been a few stories lately about china negotiating a rapprochement between iran and saudi arabia, but i don't know any of the fine details there

bg

Nasrallah moderated by firing rockets at Israel on October 8th?

bg

Very informative episode, thank you I would've appreciated more discussion of the Maronites and anti-Hezbollah/Shia political forces. Given that Shia are only a plurality (~32%), not a majority, why wouldn't the non-Shia (Maronites, Sunni) form a coalition against them? Guest refers to the Nova Festival attack as justified for "dancing outside a concentration camp". Gaza just had its border controlled by Israel and Egypt. A concentration camp is not run by the elected inmate dictatorship. It does not typically have its own commercial infrastructure, shops and cafes, hospitals, pharmacies, internet access, parks and beaches you can walk to, agriculture and other industries. It typically does not have a life expectancy (74) and gdp per capita similar or better than other countries in the region. Many of the participants in Oct 7 had guest worker passes, because Israel made the mistake of letting them work in their country.

Kevin Hickey

I think you’re listening to the wrong podcast.

Kevin Hickey

Go chug iof hog somewhere else

bg

Nope, it has useful info/perspectives, even if vast majority of audience disagree with me. Your insistence on conformity of opinion will go unheeded.

GC

Really an exceptionally good episode. More from Cyrus, please, whose insights are going to stay relevant for a truly horribly long time.

Shfifty_five

Incredible interview. Probably one of the most insightful ones since the conflict began.

Hans Anders

Saudi and the gulf see how much US military support is needed in order not to lose a war against the axis. And they know Israel is the only country that can count on that level of support.

a clash of purple

I don't expect fact-checking a stupid person who's being contrarian for their own amusement will do any good, but for the record, the life expectancy at birth in Israel in 2023 according to the U.N. was 82.4, averaged between men and women. The life expectancy at birth for Palestine in the same period was 65.7, with only Haiti and some African nations below them (for context, the world average is 73.17, with Hong Kong at the top with 85.51 and Nigeria at the bottom of the list with 54.56). Notably, there's a massive gap in life expectancy between Palestinian men and women, with men at 59.69, one of the lowest rates in the whole world, and women at 71.5. Russia and Ukraine have similar gender gaps, and the U.S. Virgin Islands for some reason. Conformity of opinion is one thing, but you're just spewing things that are flatly untrue, either out of ignorance or to try and provoke a reaction from people. So there's no point engaging with you.

Al Goehring

I think what he said about the music festival was a little fucked up It’s justified for Cyrus to say that, because he’s actually over there in the shit and has every reason to be mad - but that’s the type of killing that made people hate ISIS so I don’t think it helped anyone and people aren’t legit targets just for being decadent at the wrong moment like I said, Cyrus is totally fine for saying what he said, I just think it’s fucked up a little from my perspective but I don’t live there. (For the record, obviously israel does something equally heinous every hour, that’s not my point) Also if this community wants to jump on me for saying that, go ahead, I still pay for and love and support this show regardless

a clash of purple

Don't forget Turkey and Japan. The current South Korean regime, too. Britain, probably. There's a few countries America would go to the wall for besides Israel. Frankly, the Israelis just need more help because they're weak, stupid, rabid animals who can't even massacre children without enormous support from their imperial patron. When the Turks want to blow up Kurdish schools and hospitals, they don't need to run crying to Uncle Sam for shells and bombs.

bg

@a clash of purple writes: > I don't expect fact-checking a stupid person who's being contrarian for their own amusement will do any good, but for the record, the life expectancy at birth in Israel in 2023 according to the U.N. was 82.4, averaged between men and women. The life expectancy at birth for Palestine in the same period was 65.7, with only Haiti and some African nations below them (for context, the world average is 73.17, with Hong Kong at the top with 85.51 and Nigeria at the bottom of the list with 54.56). Notably, there's a massive gap in life expectancy between Palestinian men and women, with men at 59.69, one of the lowest rates in the whole world, and women at 71.5. Russia and Ukraine have similar gender gaps, and the U.S. Virgin Islands for some reason. > Conformity of opinion is one thing, but you're just spewing things that are flatly untrue, either out of ignorance or to try and provoke a reaction from people. So there's no point engaging with you. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-14/population-religion-and-poverty-the-demographics-of-israel-and-gaza "Meanwhile, people born in Gaza today can expect to live for 75.7 years, and in the West Bank, 76.6 years." https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/ "Life expectancy at birth: 75.5" https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423008/gaza-life-expectancy-at-birth-by-gender/ "The life expectancy at birth of men in the Gaza Strip in 2023 was estimated at 73 years" I didn't cherry pick these, I literally googled "life expectancy in gaza before oct 7" and clicked the top results. Also the relevant comparison is other arab countries, not Israel which has managed to create a 1st world country.

Al Goehring

Also Cyrus is cool and a great guest and I would hear from him again, in case that’s not clear either from what I said

.

Naw man. It’s objectively true there was a rave full of “peace, love” hippy types next to a concentration camp full of some of the most oppressed people on earth flaunting their freedom and that is morally repulsive beyond any words I can type out and that needs to be said by more people to understand the dynamics of the situation.

Isaac Suárez

Did you listen to the episode? The point Cyrus makes is that Nasrallah viewed himself as a necessary voice of moderation and intermediary with Israel. This is what led him to underrate threats to his own life. IMO Cyrus is entirely right to point this out (in part because he is referencing sources within Hezbollah.) If you look at Hezbollah’s conduct during the conflict- this self conception makes sense. Hezbollah has a vested political interest in protecting Palestinian rights- they would lose political authority if they appeared to abandon Gaza. Hezbollah, as a rational actor, responded in a manner that’s entirely logical and predictable. Hezbollah launched limited strikes on Israel to pressure the government to sign a cease fire and hostage deal. His conduct throughout the war was restrained- with fixed levels of escalation (which at every turn were matched and doubled down on by Israeli attacks on Gaza and southern Lebanon.)

Isaac Suárez

Clever! I wish you did the same (I assume you can since it’s easier than forming a coherent argument.) 😂

Al Goehring

I remember now, everyone here bumped their head and forgot how to be human beings.

Isaac Suárez

(Facepalm)- did you listen to the episode? Maronites won’t fight on behalf of Israel for Hezbollah because it would mean a return to the civil war (1978-1991.) No one wants to return to the bad old days of sectarian mass killings and open ethnic cleaning (aside from Israel and maybe the US.) Further, the last time the Maronites fought with the IDF against Palestinian and left wing Lebanese groups turned out to be a disaster. In 1982 Israel invaded with support from the Falangists (the strongest Maronite Party and militia)- with the aim of destroying Palestinian resistance in Lebanon and installing Bashir Gemayel, the Falangists leader who worked with Israel, into the presidency. Bashir was assassinated shortly after taking power (by a Maronite member of a pro Syrian Party)- the IDF couldn’t prevent the Maronite militias from being whipped by Druze, Arab Nationalist, and leftist groups (the Maronites turned to Syria, their initial patron before Israel invaded.) The remnants of these Maronite Israeli collaborators formed a group called the Southern Lebanese Army (SLA) that took heavy casualties for Israel and was promptly abandoned when Israel ended its occupation in 2000 (the conflict that created Hezbollah in the first place.) Maronites, even those who hate Hezbollah, remember how badly things went for them in the 1980s. Israel was not a loyal ally, and their fortunes cratered when they turned against Syria and aligned with Israel. No one in Lebanon, for any community, wants to die for Israel.

bg

@Isaac Suarez, thank you for your response. I wasn't suggesting that it would be a full civil war coalition, but rather a political coalition. Not to die for Israel, but to stop having Hezbollah unilaterally attack Israel (as they did on Oct 8th) and put all their countrymen under the specter of war. Are you saying it's impossible for such a political coalition to form and implement resolution 1701 because of Hezbollah's military strength, or because public opinion is genuinely behind Hezbollah's instigation of Israel and the majority don't want that?

.

Nobody bumped their head. Life comes at you fast when you go to a rave next to a concentration camp. This was bound to happen when you treat people as subhuman. I didn’t celebrate it. I understood it. I didn’t think anything this guest said was out of bounds. He gave a clear description of the dynamics. Like he did the rest of his time speaking.

A

It goes without saying that civilians do not deserve to die. I would not compare the attack to isis though. This wasn't a purely terror attack. The festival was stupidly placed next to IDF bases, as well as next to a concentration camp in Gaza. The goal of the attack was to attack the IDF bases in the region, the festival was in the way, and horribly violence erupted there and people were killed. Would you place a festival around wermacht bases surrounding the Warsaw ghetto? I wouldn't either. It shouldn't have been there to begin with.

xxx

Kurt Cobain suicide reference LOL

bg

Hezbollah being a mostly rational actor pursuing the destruction of Israel and maintaining their reputation as a protector of Palestine doesn't negate that shooting missiles at Israelis immediately after Oct 7th to ultimately displace ~100k residents is not a moderate act. Killing Nasrallah and beepering the Hezbollah leadership was rational as well, btw. It's hilarious to me that after getting their shit rekt for Oct 7th and Oct 8th the lesson is that they were too moderate. I know this is many peoples' takeaway, and would expect it to be as long as there is a hope of militarily (which incorporates the expected international opposition to Israel's response) defeating Israel.

Matthew Wood

I’d like to see the claim of a sectarian sorting by Israel inquired of more … the idea that they’re specifically targeting Shia areas over Sunni ones seems overdetermined, could be geographical ‘accident’ that aligns Shia with the south? - but I have absolutely no idea myself

Jake Erickson

Cyrus never said that the civilians at the rave were legitimate targets. He explained that the fact that a rave was happening next to a concentration camp at all is indicative of how thoroughly Israelis have dehumanized Palestinians.

Isaac Suárez

Corrections- 50-70k residents (after Israel displaced 400k Palestinians in the first weeks of the war.) No other force in the region put pressure on Israel to stop- the US keeps sending bombs and $$$- the US and EU gave fullthroated support for Israel’s genocide. The fact that Hezbollah was the ONLY force that pressured Israel to stop speaks volumes to the degree of western complicity and Arab regime cowardice. “Shit rekt”- sure buddy. If you listened to the episode, you’d know that Israel targeted Hezbollah’s community services and civilian infrastructure. You’d also know that 1. Israel can’t even get 3km into Lebanon- and they are taking heavy casualties (at least 20 in the first battle- all from their supposed “elite” units), 2. Hezbollah and Iran hit major military targets in Israel (Netavim airbase, the Golani Brigade training camp, multiple air defense sites and listening posts.) Hezbollah, despite the assassination of its leadership, has been fully capable of holding the IDF at the Lebanese border, and attriting supposed “elite” Egoz, Golani and armored units to boot. Longstory short- killing civilians and politicians is not “brave”- it is not a sign of military dominance. When it comes to conventional infantry battles on anything resembling equal terms, the Israelis are better at filling body bags with their own men (and suffering crippling mental and physical injuries that will scar their society for a generation) then they are at fighting.

Isaac Suárez

Go back to your hasbara media and video games. Tired, hilariously stupid (and deeply shop worn) takes are better left unwritten. 😂

bg

> Corrections- 50-70k residents Thank you for correcting this. The number I was citing was cumulative, not just northern Israel. I got that wrong by saying it was around 100k. You bring up that they "put pressure on Israel to stop" when their rocket attack was on October 8th before the Israeli response. They essentially tagged along with the massive terrorist attack. > killing civilians and politicians is not “brave” - it is not a sign of military dominance This is a strawman. I never brought up bravery, or said total deaths were the mark of military success. Killing orgs' leadership in a variety of ways is a sign of military dominance. Mind you, the fight is not looking over any time soon, and Hezbollah and Hamas still have lots of support. It's just that massive setbacks from starting wars are not wins, or an indication that the problem strategy was too much moderation.

Jason Thompson

It’s great to hear there is some pan-Arab/Muslim feeling forming, but what is up with the UAE’s huge crackdowns on any Palestine solidarity? The flight attendant fired for wearing a Palestine pin, the college student busted for a Palestine banner? Is the UAE’s population genuinely that indifferent? And/or is this just the sheer terror/acquiescence of living in a real dictatorship?

Isaac Suárez

The UAE is relatively small and has a repressive security apparatus (as is sadly typical among the Gulf Monarchies.) My bet is that, much like in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there’s a lot of support for Palestine- but this support is crushed whenever it coalesces into open dissent. I’d add that the UAE has long been a glaring blind spot of the anglophone international press. Aside from Al Jazeera, few if any major outlets break stories that present the Emiratis in a bad light. The fact that the UAE is the only state (aside from Morocco) which “normalized relations with Israel”- and that they are considered a key ally of the US- likely makes any acknowledgment of dissent over Palestine tacitly verboten when it comes to international coverage.

Isaac Suárez

Israel is politically toxic, across sectarian lines. People may not like Hezbollah (though many have a great deal of sympathy for its role in the resistance)- but the perception of being a “stooge” for Israel is deeply embarrassing, if not outright dangerous. This isn’t a hard thing to understand- even though it’s never acknowledged in western press. Israel’s intervention in the Lebanese civil war led to some of the worst sectarian atrocities of the conflict (the Sabra and Shatila massacre, the cleansing of multiple Palestinians refugee camps, an escalating series of tit for tit murders, disappearances, and massacres between Maronites, Sunni Muslims and Druze.) What makes this all the worse is the fact that Israel occupied part of southern Lebanon (the area between the blue line and Litani river) was administered by a Maronite sectarian militia- the Southern Lebanon a army- dissidents from the more dominant parties- who a. committed atrocities against Palestinians and Shiite dissidents (look up the Khiam detention facility) b. were completely abandoned when Israel withdrew (infamously, the IDF evacuated without warning and closed the Israeli border. The SLA collapsed like the Afghan government, You can still find YouTube videos of throngs of SLA members and their families waiting in huge lines on border entries to Israel. Luckily, feared reprisals against them proved to be relatively minor, and the leadership eventually gained asylum status in Israel- where most still reside.) If you’re a Maronite who hates Hezbollah, you’ll certainly remember how Israel treated their “Maronite allies” in the past and come to the conclusion that Israel doesn’t value your life.

Isaac Suárez

It’s also mentioned in the episode briefly that the Future Movement did try to work with the Lebanese Army to destroy Hezbollah’s tv stations (and eventually disarm their militia) back in 2008. It was a disaster- Hezbollah routed both the militias and LAF- exposing the glaring limits of armed resistance to Hezbollah within Lebanon.

teh_drewski

"Wow. That's grim" is the RWN catch phrase these days. Great interview, thanks guys.

A

Bizarre you mention conformity of opinion when yours is the opinion forced upon us by the western world 24/7. The fact that you felt the need to spea your drivel here as if it would make any difference is even more bizarre.

Isaac Suárez

Says the guy who lurks on a Patreon comment section for leftist war nerds lol. If you want a pro Israel echo chamber, you’re in the wrong place. Also, as little as you may like it, I’m just laying out a pretty well known history. A personal attack on a stranger on a comment section doesn’t make this history disappear (and folks in Lebanon, Palestine and Arab speaking world know it all to well.)

J P 3

Just add to the praise for the episode. Excellent guest with thoughtful and very detailed answers.

Isaac Suárez

1. Irrelevant if true. Hezbollah conditioned stopping the attacks on Israel reaching a cease fire agreement with Hamas. Israel sabotaged repeated near agreements (imposing last minute terms, killing negotiators, expanding the range and intensity of attacks, even as they killed their own hostages.) 2. My point is military dominance (you can be brave and inept.) Hezbollah adapted to fight without its political leadership and you don’t dispute the fact that Israel has suffered a lot of casualties in southern Lebanon for no real territorial advances, nor any measurable cessation in Hezbollah’s abilities to launch attacks on military targets in Israel.

Raymond Yukich

Didn't the IDF call for a Hannibal Directive on Oct 7? That was reported in Haaretz.

gatito

what is your goal in commenting hasbara here, do you think you’re gonna win some converts or what?

gatito

you must have a humiliation fetish the way you keep coming back to get destroyed by people who are vastly smarter, funnier, and more interesting than you. fascinating to watch!

Dan

Zaydis are Shia, no?

Raymond Yukich

Cuba has a ife expectancy rate of 78. Would you consider Cuba to be as rosy as you're making Gaza out to be?

fw

I think putting a charged word like 'decadence' into Cyrus' mouth is quite unfair, unless I missed him use it - he did say 'bourgeouise comfort', though. The issue was not 'decadence', fascist hauntology (or however you'd describe it) of that word aside, even; although, given the genocide, it seems even more ridiculous to imply; like a deflecting mirroring of fascist intent. But your word quibble aside, what he said was factual. To have a rave outside a concentration camp is, morals aside, pretty dangerous. All this aside, Israel did kill a bunch of those ravers themselves and then blamed it on the people in the concentration camp it's currently exterminating, so I really don't see the issue with what he said - it was polite and measured, considering, not 'mad' because he's 'in the shit' (again, pretty charged stuff here). Also, bad faith anticipation of 'this community' wanting to jump on you or whatever comes across like you have never taken any criticism, or think it's a magic talisman against it; it's not a good strategy for communication, life in general, representing your humanitarian concern for a genocidal state, etc.

fw

Great episode, already relistened more than once. I wish Cyrus nothing but the best and am very grateful he took the time to speak to you / us again. His perspective views analysis were all extremely valuable.

William

I’m pretty sure it’s been shown by now that most of the ravers were killed by the israllys basically shooting at anything that moved

William

lol, you searched for, and found, two of the most biased sources for life expectancy. The CIA fact book? Are you literally this stupid? I think this actually explains your dumbass comment; you literally believe whatever words you read with no critical examination of who’s telling you or why.

bg

@A writes: “Bizarre you mention conformity of opinion when yours is the opinion forced upon us by the western world 24/7. The fact that you felt the need to spea your drivel here as if it would make any difference is even more bizarre.” @Isaac Suarez writes: “Says the guy who lurks on a Patreon comment section for leftist war nerds lol. If you want a pro Israel echo chamber, you’re in the wrong place.” @gatito writes: “what is your goal in commenting hasbara here, do you think you’re gonna win some converts or what?” I don’t believe in limiting free speech in any case. I mentioned “conformity of opinion” because the first response to my comment was that I’m on the wrong podcast, and am well aware that 95%+ will disagree with me. I don’t know about ya’ll but I would prefer a comment section that has someone with a different view on it, and am not a fan of echo chambers in general, whether they agree with my view or not. My goal in commenting my current opinions/understanding here is to help evolve my view. My logic is that posting amongst a disproportionately better-read, better-informed, and smarter audience (relative to the public, and in many cases myself) who mostly vehemently disagree with me is the best way to see where and how I’m wrong and update my views. So no, I'm not trying to "convert" anyone just evolve my views.

bg

@Raymond Yukich writes: “Cuba has a life expectancy rate of 78. Would you consider Cuba to be as rosy as you're making Gaza out to be?” Cuba has been recently having trouble keeping the electricity on due to sanctions and communism. Pre-blackouts Cuba and pre-Oct 7 Gaza may be a decent economic comparison. I would describe neither as concentration camps. Next door neighbor Egypt seems like the obvious comparison on various metrics? You'll find Gaza was in the same ballpark of life expectancy and gdp per capita pre Oct-7. @William writes: “lol, you searched for, and found, two of the most biased sources for life expectancy.” Do you have a better source for pre-Oct 7 life expectancy in Gaza? Or would you prefer we just pull numbers out of our ass like @clash of purple? Life expectancy is one of the more objective measures out there since it’s typically obvious when people die outside of wartime.

bg

@Isaac Suarez, I'm responding to your substantive comment re:political coalitions in Lebanon, where you said: "the perception of being a “stooge” for Israel is deeply embarrassing, if not outright dangerous." as an explanation for why a political coalition isn't formed to rein in Hezbollah and reapply 1701. I don't see how a coalition that got behind 1701 would be a "stooge". The logic would be to stop the war (started unilaterally by Hezbollah), not to fight or ally with Israel. What's unclear to me is whether the rest of Lebanon is capable of doing that or Hezbollah has a militant veto no matter what.

Hans Anders

For a similarly powerful Arab guest, check out Ghadi Francis on Rania Khalek’s Dispatches

Jason Thompson

Hmm. You mean you think stories of anti-Palestinian crackdowns in these places are over reported in the West because they make Israel fans happy? (They certainly do seem to love and gloat about these stories.)

John Pearson

Anyone know if Cyrus publishes/posts commentary anywhere? I got a lot out of this episode and listened twice.

Isaac Suárez

Last time I checked, laying out historically verified facts that hasbara shills don’t like isn’t “being destroyed.” Of course, all this is in the eye of the beholder- I can’t account for poor historical literacy or reading comprehension 😂 I’ll add that insulting a stranger on a comment section, while refusing to engage with a single point made, doesn’t do much beyond making you look like a foolish shill. Nothing does more to discredit Israel than their supporters (so by all means, keep commenting)

Raymond Yukich

How about reigning in Israel's genocide, terrorism, torture, and gang raping?

The Drooping Rhino

The Supernova Sukkot Gathering was initially planned to take place at a different location in southern Israel, but two days before October 7th, the festival was relocated by the organizers. Tragically, the new location was directly in the path of the Hamas attack. It would be interesting to know more about the decision process that led to moving the festival location.

a clash of purple

Frankly, the Israelis claim that it's okay for them to murder and torture whoever they want, so why should the Palestinians be held to a higher standard?

Isaac Suárez

Israel and the US already rejected enforcing 1701 as “insufficient.” Further, the PM who proposed enforcing 1701, Najib Mikati, depends on both Hezbollah and Amal to maintain his seat. He is neither willing nor able to enforcing without Hezbollah’s consent- and given the fact that Israel murdered Hezbollah’s chief negotiators after the proposal was made- I doubt that he has Hezbollah’s full buy in. If Israel was willing to stop its slaughter in Gaza, then Hezbollah would agree to a cease fire, which could entail a withdrawal north of the Litani. Since Israel is not, and (it bears repeating) killed the negotiators Hezbollah provided for these talks, then the proposal is dead in the water. I’d add that, yet again, any party or armed group in Lebanon that tried to force Hezbollah to withdraw and disarm would be seen as an Israeli stooge. The very fact that Israel is launching its (up to now remarkably unsuccessful) operation in Lebanon makes this fact apparent to anyone (except for fools in DC and Tel Aviv, who’s delusional hubris is repeating the catastrophe of 2003.)

Isaac Suárez

I’m not sure about “political” but definitely when it comes to military capacity. That being said, it is striking that Hezbollah manages to keep its services funded and cadre paid, even as the economy of Lebanon collapses. In this respect, you’re definitely right. I’d add too that Hezbollah seems to benefit (like the Houthis) from taking a broadly popular, militant stand against Israel. It speaks to how deeply Israel is hated in the region (as well as the clear ineffectiveness of repeated cycles of sanctions on Iran.)

Cameron Young

Great episode - had to re wind several times to make sure I caught everything

Terry Dunk

I think it's less that they're innovating or bringing new and advanced technologies to bear than that they just seem to have such total mastery and command of existing ones that the disparity in capacity is Terminator-esque. Your point is well made though.

Terry Dunk

Reminiscent of the point made by the Iranian cleric after Soleimani's assassination that the US has no comparable figure for Iran to assassinate in retaliation other than perhaps SpongeBob

Lojban Chauvinist

Gaza was not a concentration camp before Oct. 7. Few historical terms really fit Gaza, but it was always a stretch to call a territory with two million people, with a growing population and even a thriving economy of a kind, a concentration camp. It was a kind of bantustan, subject to a high level of control and violence. It was a kind of ghetto, but the Warsaw Ghetto comparison only became real on Oct. 7. Even now I would not call Gaza a concentration camp; I would say that the population of Gaza has been forced into concentration camps.

Lojban Chauvinist

The fact that the Nova festival happened near the Gaza border is first, not any more morally repulsive than any other example of "normalcy" in the settler state of Israel. Secondly, it wasn't planned to flaunt Israeli joy at the Gazans; the invading force had to stumble on it, 5 km deep into Israeli territory, and didn't know it was there – importantly, Hamas attacked it opportunistically. (As a commenter pointed out, it's strange that the festival was relocated at the last minute to a location closer to Gaza, while Israali border guards at the time had wind of a large attack being planned. It still is probably a coincidence.) Anyway, the festival should not have been a target. You can question how many died that day from the Hannibal Directive and friendly fire, but you can't question that Hamas murdered civilians there (and at the kibbutzim), and there's no justifying that.

bg

@Isaac Suárez, I think you've made this mistake multiple times: You think someone else (who agrees with you, and is trying to support you) is me who's commenting. That comment about being "destroyed" was by @gatito, not me, @bg. I know Patreon comments system sucks but try and read more carefully who's posting them. Also note the irony of saying > insulting a stranger on a comment section, while refusing to engage with a single point made, doesn’t do much beyond making you look like a foolish shill. Nothing does more to discredit Israel than their supporters ..when you're responding to a pro-Palestinian commenter who agrees with you! lol. I'm guessing the point no longer applies once you realize the guy is on your side. I greatly appreciate your focus on the facts and the principles at hand, and realize this is just a technical/procedural error on your end.

Isaac Suárez

Patreon has a very rudimentary comment function on its app, so it’s hard to see whose comment is direct at who (the last comment wasn’t directed at you.)

bg

In that case you simply misread their comment as being directed at you rather than me, as I think you've done multiple times across threads.

Hans Anders

Hezbollah isn’t loved by all of the Lebanese, but it is respected. By the Christians for their role in fighting ISIS in Syria. By the Sunnis for fighting for Palestine. By almost all for fighting Israel out of Lebanon.

A

BG, the problem is that we already live in a pro Israel echo chamber and suffer the exposure to it constantly. You aren't providing any new insights to anyone who is commenting here. Everyone has already heard what you have to say a thousand times over, that's why your presence (and attitude) is met with annoyance. Much like your Israeli friends, you feel the need to invade an independent space and settle yourself within it, at the annoyance and disdain of the locals.

William

Oh, no, you misunderstand. I can DEFINITELY question whether or not Hamas murdered civilians, given that nearly every piece of reporting around oct 7 has been systematically proven to be outright fabrication. Remember the mass rapes? Originally, there was no way the IDF killed isrally civilians, then 9 months later, oh yeah, it might’ve happened. I’m sorry it hurts your sensibilities to hear this, but you reap what you fucking sow. That festival might as well have been next to an active volcano. You can’t SYSTEMATICALLY imprison, bomb, selectively kill, starve, and repress a population for decades and expect that nothing will ever happen to you. For fucks sake you and others talk about “morality” of where the rave took place and you miss the forest for the goddamn trees in the most darkly hilarious way possible.

William

Al, how upset were your parents when they heard their uncle committed suicide at Nuremberg

NYCM&AHole

Hope you don’t need to do another emergency ep soon

Tyler Berglund

Amazing interview. Cyrus has such an intimate knowledge of the sociological components to the regional war.

bg

> BG, the problem is that we already live in a pro Israel echo chamber The majority of comments sections online are pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel. Tiktok, X, etc. So you don't "live" in an echo chamber (other than the informational one you create for yourself by choice of forums etc). Now, the top-down institutional power in the US (politicians, money, media) is on the pro-Israel side, no disagreement there. > You aren't providing any new insights to anyone who is commenting here. Seems like a broad assumption. The gentleman who thought Hezbollah was sent mail-bombs rather than purchasing exploding pagers would be an example of someone less informed than me, who no one bothers to correct because they're on the same political side. You're setting an artificially high bar for opposing views, and one would expect you to be biased as people usually think their political opponents are dumb. > Much like your Israeli friends, you feel the need to invade an independent space and settle yourself within it, at the annoyance and disdain of the locals. I spent some time trying to develop empathy and understanding for this statement, but couldn't do it. It's not different than the "safe space" mentality of wokes who feel they're being colonized by hearing offending opinions , the "words are violence" crowd who will try and drone out speakers they disagree with. I can't relate or empathize with having a view where you wouldn't want people to come in who disagree and rationally discuss it. I feel this way about attempts to stifle all speech, including anti-Israel speech on campuses or online.

Lojban Chauvinist

@Isaac Suárez > Nothing does more to discredit Israel than their supporters At least in an Anglo-American context, I think it's Palestine's supporters who have problems. It is evident to me that the cause of freedom for Palestine and the more limited cause of ending U.S. complicity in a genocidal war are now inextricably tied to two groups of people: Muslim immigrants, and "extreme" left-wingers. What do I mean by the latter? The archetype is the masked Columbia protestor (and less wealthy but still uppity middle-class versions of the same at schools around the country). Those are the people at the front of the movement. The problem is that both groups are quite unpopular, and even demonized in the minds of about half the country. In the first case, it's xenophobia, sure, but that's a given. In the second case it's that the Left has lost its roots in the working class and lost touch with reality in a sense – at least the reality that most people do not have morally pure or coherent politics, and have no choice but to consume all that ideological propaganda coming at them nonstop, and convincing them of anything against the grain has to be a long-term process, tied to a politics that is for them and not just for the PMC. Then on top of all that, lefties do themselves no favors by amping up their rhetoric and engaging with hostility or scorn, like you have in this conversation (to a comparatively mild degree, I'll hand you that) with a guy who has a different set of prior beliefs than you. Not that I expect comment chains in a niche, ideologically uniform podcast community to reflect a person's best behavior "IRL," but the problem is that everyone – but politically aware people especially – is socialized online now. In fact, online, behind the veil of anonymity, is probably the only place these days where most people ever broach political topics with those who do not already agree with them. Therefore I see in your comments a reflection of the mountain of shit we're in.

Lojban Chauvinist

> I can DEFINITELY question whether or not Hamas murdered civilians You can, and you should. But the evidence shows that Hamas did murder civilians, and no one who is credible denies this. https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/10/18/israel/palestine-videos-hamas-led-attacks-verified Now, do you want to argue that this was a mere lack of discipline rather than acting on orders, or are you going to lean into "it was deserved"? I'm even open to hearing a case for the former if anyone cares to make it.

Jakob Stenfalk

Gaza was absolutely a concentration camp before 2023. It was turned into a death camp on 8 Oct. 2023, but that is not an atypical trajectory for concentration camps.

G_zola Barolo

👍👍👍super interview guys

MoldyTolge

Cyrus episodes are very information dense, it’s like a nourishing meatloaf for the inquisitive mind.

CR

I have long assumed that it’s because the UAE is easy to bribe, but even easier to eliminate if needed. The fictional depiction in Syriana seems apt. They are few, isolated, and precarious in their own fortunes. The U.S. can and will snatch away their wealth and lives any time it wants.

CR

It’s working wonders in regard to China and India.