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Radio War Nerd EP #486 — Syria War 2: Return of the Jihadis, feat. Joshua Landis (Patreon)

Published:
2024-12-03 04:08:54
Imported:
2024-12

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Content

Guest: Joshua LandisRecorded: December 2, 2024

We talk to Syria expert Joshua Landis about last week's surprise breakout of Syria's Turkish-backed rebels, led by Jolani's onetime Al Qaeda franchise HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham).

*Maps & Images*Syria control map 

*Syria occupation map (11/30) 

*Jolani before & after NATO public relations makeover

Follow Joshua on Twitter.

Previous RWN episodes with Joshua:-EP #118 — Turkey, Syrian Kurds & Afrin Invasion-EP #150 — Idlib & the Syria Endgame-EP #358 — Syria War Update-EP #473 — Nasrallah Assassination

Total time: 1:12:23Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

 

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Comments

Michael Conlin-Elsen

Based on that picture, can we be sure this Jolani guy isn't actually named something like Лев Горовиц fresh off the boat from Odessa in NYC circa 1923?

Matt Colston

Damn near neighbors John. Hi from Bellingham!

Podconsoomer

I saw a video of a group of surrendering saa soldiers being executed

Indigo Olson

Heads up John-- There will be Taylor Swift concerts in Vancouver from the 6th through the 8th. Good luck and avoid major roads!

George

You guys couldn’t find a better expert than this guy in Oklahoma again? No one from the region? A lot of what this guy posts on Twitter are standard social media rumors. I don’t get any sense he has local sources or knows anything except what he reads on social media. His analysis is fairly shallow as well. There is so much confusion going around about Syria right now so someone who can help separate rumors from fact would be valuable please find someone better

NYCM&AHole

Yeah not impressed. I would wanna ask the Syriana Analysis guy who predicted this in mid October.

NYCM&AHole

My god this guy thinks the US isn’t somehow on the ground with the latest “Al queda is on our side in Syria” go around?

NYCM&AHole

This guy should run the embassy doling out weapons to jihadis

Tyler Pittman

Take a shot every time he says loggerheads

The Squash

Fuck I hate Chilliwack. I've never met anyone from Chilliwack I didn't loathe.

Hans Anders

You could argue that Israel successfully terror-bombed Hezbollah into seperating the fronts with no ceasefire in Gaza. But indeed, it’s no clear win by any means.

John Waaben

New videos just came out of the U.S. bombing Syrian govt positions too

Kenneth Smith

I used to go through chilliwack sometimes when I lived in Bellingham WA. There was a kayak run on the river through there I did a few times. Seemed like an alright place

Schaeffer Mallory

It almost seems quaint that Russia explicitly invaded Ukraine when western powers (i.e. Turkey, US) just invade without ever declaring that's what they're doing and often without ever using their own national forces

Shawn van Leeuwen

is that verified? I doubt it. people need to learn not to run w/ the first bit of dubious bias-confirming evidence that lands in their lap.

Shawn van Leeuwen

the idea that HTS is more tolerant of minorities and sects is laughable. It should also be remarked that HTS is in direct concert with the SNA, of which Lebanese reporter Jenan Moussa reports have 3 SNA brigades deployed with them in their southward push. In the north, the SNA forces are moving on Kurdish territory to repeat there what they did to Afrin in 2018.

NYCM&AHole

I’ll chilliwhack you with a Shillelagh (two things that sound funny being said aloud)

Cam C

The win for Israel is that Hezbollah will not interfere in their other engagements, Palestine and Syria. Another win for Israel is the agreement was largely based on them ceasing the bombing of high density residential units in Lebanon; the lack of concern from the rest of the world at Israel’s tactics.

NYCM&AHole

Taylor swift boat veterans for truth

John Waaben

Yeah I mean… could be wrong. Just saying I saw a single video.

GoyBulletStopper

I was going to suggest Kevork Almassian as well... I pray his family is safe.

Mao Zedong Superstar

Love this pod but this Landis guy stinks. He used to be good but seems to have taken a couple steps towards neocon shilling. Is he trying to get tenure or something? I’m ok with hearing about things that don’t agree with my own personal beliefs, but he’s misrepresented facts with a clear pro-west bias and been just plain wrong in some cases.

Podconsoomer

I think the war in southern Lebanon will reignite in less than a month. Israel has already violated the “ceasefire” 100+ times since its been signed

No

Great ep, make it free! I wanna send it to every dipshit i know who still believes in the existence of the 'moderate rebels'

JJ

How does he manage to gloss over that HTS’s disassociation with AQ was agreed to by the latter with the express rationale of better preserving HTS’s forces?

Demented Avenger

Is there a good overview article of the whole Syria mess? I realized the other day that this whole Syria business is a goddamn mess, and the article on Wikipedia is like reading Slughorn's memories—"Nothing to see here. DO NOT LOOK!"

Inmybirkin

Anything written by Patrick Higgins is decent

Inmybirkin

I actually find this much more useful than his previous interviews. And I truly agree with the point made late in the episode about Lebanon ceasefire. It was clearly a defeat for Hezb unless u are denying reality. Good episode.

.

Did this guy compare Al Qaeda to Hamas or maybe I misheard lol

a clash of purple

Previous RWN guest Rania Khalek is in Beirut, and she posted an episode on youtube of her interviewing a Lebanese journalist about the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire. Their conclusion was that it wasn't a defeat for Hezbollah, that Israel failed to achieve their main goal of securing their Lebanese border so their settlers can return home, and fighting on some scale would probably continue. That journalist was very openly and unapologetically pro-Hezbollah, though, so I took what she said with a grain of salt. I donno if Landis's analysis is any better. Honestly I don't know where you'd find good information on this subject. It seems like everyone talking about it has a strong bias one way or the other, and details about the fighting and casualties are sparse. The one takeaway Rania and her guest offered that seems credible to me is that Hezbollah is by no means broken, even if they've taken some hard hits, and for now the Lebanese people are standing by them regardless of sect. It's a lot more difficult to say what the Israelis are thinking, what they were hoping to accomplish, and whether they consider the operation a success.

a clash of purple

So if you fly airliners into American landmarks, the Americans will give you massive amounts of free military hardware and help you take over a country to run as your own Islamic state. But if you fight and die for the Americans, they'll sell you out to the Turks and crack jokes about what smart cynical operators they are while you're massacred. What a fucking great country.

PostmasterFenian

Unfortunately I think Professor Landis's statements on the axis of resistance being a paper tiger are aging like a fine wine at this point.

PostmasterFenian

I mean kind of but his point was that tahir al sham has reduced their ambitions so to speak. They supposedly are just seeking to form an islamic state and forgoing international ambitions. fyi this dude's wife is alawite or druze or something i think. He's no fan of tahir al sham

PostmasterFenian

essentially israel is able to terror bomb axis of resistance forces out of the fight even if they can't do shit on the ground. I think he's unfortunately right here.

Jake Erickson

the people who honked at John must have been really rude bc he isn't even trying to take some of the blame like in his usual anecdotes that start an episode

CC

can anyone point me to an article/video/whatever directly debunking the idea that Israel was defeated in Lebanon in relation to their own stated goals? western analysts have consistently underestimated resistance movements, what reason is there to think Hezbollah is ~ground into dust~? I appreciate you having Landis on, please also get some Syrian analysts on lol

joe

Sure, Israel would have to “contend” with an Islamist government.

Tyler Berglund

Landis plays this game of: we aren’t sure what Israel & the US want in Syria - they left Assad in power because they wanted a weak state. The US and Israel were both supporters in material, medical aid and funds, intel, training (etc) for the Syrian dirty war. The first dirty war against Syria was a regime change effort, it failed because of Russian intervention. It should be presumed that this is regime change effort 2.0 unless confronted with overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The only part of Landis’ arguments that make any sense is when he points out obvious axis of resistance failures that even Mr Magoo can see. Everything else is based on a false premise that HTS is a wild card while also being simultaneously a US asset (wtf?). William Van Wagenan has done stellar reporting on the Syrian dirty war, and doesn’t muddle it with pretend confusion as to the US goals in the region. Landis makes everything seem so confusing. It’s unclear what Russia will do. Its crystal clear what Turkye, the US and Israel are doing.

NYCM&AHole

Now we are officially bombing on behalf of Isis

a clash of purple

It's been conjectured before on RWN that the Israelis are far more comfortable with Sunni Islamist movements than Shia or secular movements. That attitude has already bitten them in the ass plenty of times, no reason to think this would be any different. A group like HTS might hate Shi'ites, but there's no reason to think they wouldn't attack Israel and America too (or even Turkey) if they feel like it.

a clash of purple

The impression I got from Landis is pretty much the same as what you're saying. I don't think he downplayed anything, and he was pretty clear that this HTS public relations campaign shouldn't be taken as a genuine turn away from sectarian violence, just a temporary publicity stunt.

a clash of purple

As long as people are calling for different perspectives to contrast with Joshua Landis's, why not have Elijah Magnier back on, if possible? In a recent article, he wrote, "Israel failed in neutralising Hezbollah’s military capabilities or its command structure. Despite intensive bombing campaigns, Hezbollah remains operational and has proven its resilience. Hezbollah is required to redeploy its forces and infrastructure north of the river. However, the implementation of this clause poses several challenges. Hezbollah may interpret any violation of the deal, such as Israel retaining control of Lebanese territories or resuming military actions, as grounds to re-establish its presence south of the Litani River. "Also, Hezbollah’s redeployment north of the Litani does not eliminate its ability to strike Israel with long-range missiles, maintaining the threat of future hostilities. The agreement does not directly enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah, allowing it to retain its strategic weapons north of the Litani. Its resilience has bolstered its credibility among its supporters despite the heavy cost of the conflict." which gives a significantly different impression compared to Dolan, Ames, and Landis's conclusion that the cease-fire represented a clear defeat for Hezbollah. It's definitely worth noting that the Israeli public is not happy with this cease-fire, and they certainly don't consider it an unambiguous victory, which is further eroding Netanyahu's hold on his office.

James

HTS is no different than Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia has never attacked Israel

James

Landis is clearly on the side of the head choppers

Dissipatio

I hitchhiked through Chilliwack in 1971 on a recon mission. Luckily (for me) my birthday pulled a draft number in the 300's, otherwise I would still be hiding out up there, somewhere ...

John Waaben

Right, seems like much more of a time-out than anything. Though, it was nice to see all those pictures of southern Lebanese families cheerfully returning to their homes because of the ceasefire.

Podconsoomer

If there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t attack Israel why have they been sitting on their asses for a year+ of genocide. Why not open a front like Hezbollah on golan.

Podconsoomer

Why would they bite the hand that feeds them?

Podconsoomer

No he isn’t his wife is a Syrian minority whose head the opposition would like to chop

a clash of purple

Keep in mind, Israelis can see those pictures too; Israelis who still can't return to their own homes. If this cease-fire is a victory for Israel, then it's ashes in their mouths. Their settlers haven't been able to return home, Hezbollah has not been destroyed, and they still have to keep troops committed to the Lebanese border rather than assisting with the attempted ethnic cleansing in Gaza.

Yairo Martis

Man, NATO hair and make up should be nominated for an Oscar.

Jeremy

At least now every time Landis is on the show I’ll know what the think tank is coming up with to describe Arabs as disjointed, disorganized, lawless “thugs”.