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Radio War Nerd EP #487 — Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire + Syria Collapse, feat. Cyrus (*guest co-host Aamer) (Patreon)

Published:
2024-12-07 04:36:15
Edited:
2025-03-20 01:04:38
Imported:
2024-12
Tags:

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Content

Guest: Cyrus, MENA researcher*Guest co-host: AamerRecorded: December 6, 2024

We talk to friend of the show "Cyrus" about the two major recent events: the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and Assad's collapsing Syrian state.

(Note: The War Nerd had to slip away on a dark mission before recording this episode. FOTS Aamer volunteered for duty as guest co-host.)

*Map

Total time: 2:00:03Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

Files

Comments

NYCM&AHole

Oh so that’s who clipped the CEO (just kidding). A dark mission indeed

NYCM&AHole

Not helping after that intro, Mark

MoldyTolge

Cyrus + Amer? This is an early Christmas/Eid/Hanukkah gift! We just need Annibale to show up dressed like Santa

a clash of purple

Why is Assad so pathologically overconfident? The only cards he has to play are the support he gets from his allies, and all of them are busy elsewhere right now. Shouldn't he have started making deals back when he had the upper hand? At this point, he has no leverage and nothing to offer anyone. Well, anyway, as it turns out, Russia abandoned Assad before America could abandon the Syrian Kurds. Where does this leave the YPG and the other American-backed rebels?

T

Or Annibale dressed as La Befana :-D

PostmasterFenian

Hi mark im in the process of developing Gary Brecher AI please drop me a line if interested

Hilary is Pant-suited Syphilis

I have a feeling once the HTS Islamists capture Damascus and depose Assad, they and the Turks will turn their wrath on the Kurds. By and large the Kurds have already been abandoned, the Turks were allowed to take a chunk of Syria from the SDF without so much as a stern talking to. They likely will put up a better fight than the SAA, but Turkey is doing a full court press in Syria and NATO/US arms (likely Turkish advisors) are flowing without hindrance to former al Qaeda affiliates in Syria. If they stall out likely Turkish troops, drones and planes will get directly involved and the YPG will likely be turned from “plucky democratic allies fighting for freedom” into “extreme left terrorists” overnight. After that who knows what could happen, you likely could see spill over and destabilization in Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Lebanon if that hasn’t already started. Likely a redeclaration of the Caliphate. Grim shit.

William

Cyrus feels like the RWN Deep Throat, even though they’re not sharing secret information. Also, knowing John, he’s probably had to get original copies of paperwork proving his second colonoscopy occurred, so that Malta’s 2nd administrative court of appeals will release their hold on his war painting shipment, or some other incomprehensible battle against a kafkaesque bureaucracy

William

It’s just Radio now

Cam C

“They exposed Israel’s nature to the world, once and for all” and the world looked on, with total apathy.

William

lol the Maronites trying to be like, “they not like us”

Jeffrey Elkner

I can't thank you enough for this episode! Cyrus helped me understand what is going on in Syria in a way none of the rest of the flood of information about this unfolding story has. As someone who feels love and gratitude to the Cuban people for continuing to demonstrate that resistance against the evil empire is possible, Cyrus shared with us the tragic results of abandoning that resistance. I feel so sad for Syria.

Pranjal Dwivedi

Hopefully people who were criticising Landis are satisfied now that Cyrus has supported the assertion that Israel won and decisively degraded Hezbollah’s capacity

a clash of purple

I can't help but feel like, while this might be a short-term defeat (though I honestly think that you can't call it a defeat for Hezbollah when Israel got nothing that they wanted), in the long term the Axis of Resistance is correct in their assessment. We all already knew that support for Israel is deeply entrenched among the Western ruling class, but we now also know that they've burned through whatever goodwill they had among regular people. There are a lot of institutions in Western politics which frustrate and dissipate popular will, but all they can do is slow things down. In the long run, I think Israel as we know it is doomed.

a clash of purple

That's not the case, though. The West's ruling elite are treating them like a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum, while the general public are horrified and disgusted. The U.S. hasn't withdrawn its support for Israel, yet. That doesn't mean regular people accept and tolerate Israel anymore, and that really does matter, in the long run.

a clash of purple

Or Krampus. Dolan mentioned once that Annibale is a mountaineer, among other things. In Italy I assume that means he's familiar with the Alpine region, and if he's familiar with the Alpine region I assume he's familiar with Krampus. Krampus feels far more in tune with RWN's overall vibe.

T

I was definitely critical of Landis, and it sucks that he was right, because the truth in this circumstance definitely hurts.

Cam C

I’m specifically talking in a political power sense. Yes, the West’s ruling elite. What power do the people have to change their position? Protesters are being charged with crimes that will legitimately affect their lives. The Dems made it crystal clear that they would allow Israel to continue acting like genocidal children. Trump has a better and more defined red line, and this is the guy who tried a Muslim immigration ban. The empathy of the American/Western people really doesn’t mean much in this climate, I wish it did. It’s also not as unified as you might think, even people who are calling themselves “progressives” are defending Biden’s stance on Israel, acknowledging that he is definitionally a war criminal by US law, and then moving onto “the inflation reduction act and CHIPS” like that’s worth it

a clash of purple

Hezbollah and their allies have said that they try to take the long view. It's good to understand what's going on moment to moment, but we should also take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Yes, Western governments have various tricks they can do to sublimate or redirect public pressure for a little while. But you can't kick the can down the road forever. As Israel's American champions like Biden die off over time (normally that would be taking the *very* long view, but these people *are* ancient), who's going to replace them? Israel isn't the only issue that U.S. politicians have to think about. If support for Israel becomes toxic in the eyes of the public, one or both parties will be happy to cut them off and focus their energies elsewhere. It's happened before, with South Africa. And while opposition for Israel might not be a unified force, neither are Israel supporters. There are conflicting interests in Israel and among its backers, too. Netanyahu is a great big fat obvious one; he's extremely divisive within Israeli society and only becoming moreso over time. The Americans expect certain things from Israel, and they have enormous leverage. When Cyrus says that Netanyahu signed the cease-fire as a favor to Trump, it's not because he and Trump are buddies. It's because he knows that, unlike Biden, Trump might not let him just do whatever he wants forever. As dominant as Israel might seem in the region, all their strength is based on U.S. support. Cut that off and what do they have? For now, things are truly grim. In the immediate future, everything will be horrible. But Israel's agenda is flatly impossible. They can't exterminate the Palestinians-they might not even be able to properly ethnically cleanse them from the north of Gaza. They can't break Hezbollah and Iran. They can kill and torture lots of people, but in that sense Israeli cruelty is as useless as Westerner empathy. They aren't going to get their way just because they're violent psychopaths. Hezbollah and Iran have proved their resilience again and again, and as for the Palestinians, what can Israel do to them that they haven't done already? This isn't "copium." I don't think any of this is good news, because it just means the conflict will continue and the horrors will only get worse. But I just can't see any alternative. The Israelis won't bend and the Axis of Resistance won't break. The only thing I can see shifting over time is the West's position, and I think that will trend away from support for Israel. Stepping back to the even bigger picture, a long-running theme on RWN has been the decline of American power. Yes, it's disheartening to see all this bloodshed and suffering around the world. But the situation is pretty clear. None of this, from Israel's butchery to the weakening of Syria to the slow steady grind of the war in Ukraine, is good for the U.S. empire. The blobboids who run the show are getting their rocks off pounding on people who stand up to them, but there's no constructive agenda here to complement the massacres. Think back to what Kelly Vlahos was saying when they interviewed her. America's military, despite the absurd price tag, has grown very weak and corrupt and is stretched ridiculously thin. We're using up our limited capacity on losing causes, basically for no better reason than just to spite people we don't like. We're degrading the value of the American brand, which is such a crucial part of our international influence. Our stupid and short-sighted temper tantrums are putting strain on our allies, who are really feeling the pressure in terms of public unrest and resource shortages. This is a very dire state of affairs, which is only made worse by our insisting on going to the mat for repellent scum like the Israelis and the Saudis. More violence and idiotic right-wing policies will only exacerbate the situation, but those are the only tools the American leadership will countenance anymore. Like I said, that shouldn't reassure anyone. When the empire is so weak, it will lash out in increasingly desperate and violent ways to try and keep its grip on power. The fact that these actions only further weaken the empire is probably cold comfort to the dead and traumatized. I do think context matters, however.

Sk

Would love a transcript of Cyrus’ final bit regarding the destruction of a state. Very rough to hear.

Manuscript

Listening to Aamer talk about Hezbollah attacking Israel on October 8th and than calling the subsequent war "Israel's Lebanon war" was some remarkable double speak. Serious question: why are so many folks on the so-called "left" calling the current Hezbollah-israel war Israels war on Lebanon? Didn't Hezbollah attack Israel first in solidarity with Hamas? Didn't Hezbollah agree to participate in Al Aqsa flood with Hamas but ultimately didn't participate because it needed more time to prepare ? Didn't Hezbollah condition stopping it's attacks on Israels northern towns on Israel agreeing effectively to allow Hamas to keep controlling Gaza (not really anything to do directly with Hezbollah)? Why is this Israels war on Lebanon and not Hezbollahs (unsuccessful) war on Israel?

Terry Dunk

There's an old saying in Ho — I know it's in Mao, probably in Ho — that if you lose people to save land, people are gone forever. But if you lose land ... or lose people to save land rather... Point is, you can't get the people back.

JoR

You're correct. The problem is, no leader seems willing or able to make a deal while they're ahead. You can understand why: the "hotheads" under you will whisper that you're a traitor and you made a deal right before "total victory". But that's what seperates good leaders from mediocre ones

Manuscript

I was asking a serious war nerd question. Please give a serious war nerd answer. Like one that is explanatory. I'd like to understand the mindset of reflexive anti-zionists that need to call a war that Israel pretty clearly didn't start (based on my comment above) "Israels war". What don't you agree with specifically? Do you even have an argument? Are you making a culture reference instead to make yourself feel cool when you don't have anything of substance to say?

CC

2hr Cyrus and Aamer ep lets fucking gooo, that’s what I want to see

CC

underrated comment

brendo

I think this is one of the the best episodes you've ever done, and it's a shame John wasn't there, but goddamn this was extremely illustrative and fucking depressing. Another commenter expressed this but Landis was right, the Axis of Resistance lost and lost bad, and got exposed as incredibly weak. The US marked Syria for death, and it's plans are measured in decades, not months or years. It took decades and hundreds of thousands of lives to fulfill its ambitions, hope everyone celebrating the fall of the regime is happy, and I hope they're happy with whatever comes next

Podconsoomer

They didn’t participate in Al aqsa flood because it was solely an Al qassam operation dunce. They told no one.

Podconsoomer

It doesn’t matter what you call it Israel is the aggressor. It’s killing women children elders. Destroyed the vast majority of Gaza. You know what I’ll say it. Hezbollah did take it upon themselves to support Gaza and they were right to because Israel is a psycho rogue state. And their ceasefire condition was not that Hamas remains governing body of Gaza but that the aggression stops. You don’t know a fucking thing about what you’re talking about you just wanna polish jewish dick

Podconsoomer

It’s “Israel’s war” because Israel is the invader. Sure Hamas dealt their first blows but it was nothing compared to what Israel has done. It is only a tiny fraction of what they have done. Air strikes in Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, LebanonBut it’s not Israel’s war. Yeah sure.

Manuscript

Dear Diego, I can't take you seriously when you say I want to polish J***** D*** sorry. That is hate speech. When YOU say that you are being a RACIST. Please be serious. Be a war nerd. Hezbollah did know about Al aqsa but didnt participate because it could not be ready in time. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-war.html So far I've only gotten racist unserious and extended non war nerd Hezbollah simp answers. I want serious ones. As far as I'm concerned this is still the "Hezbollahs unsuccessful war on Israel" and people who say otherwise are lying to themselves or speaking on some low level prejudice. People die in wars. Innocent people. Don't start them. Make peace. Any real war nerd could tell you that starting a war will lead to innocent people dying. Especially when the war is guaranteed to involve urban combat in fortifications entrenched below civilian infrastructure. Hamas did know this and intended it. Only a fake war nerd would not hold them responsible. Israel is enforcing UN resolution 1701 which stipulated that Hezbollah should not be south of the litani. Somehow the UN has done nothing about Hezbollah violated it almost immediately after the first Lebanon war wrapped in 2006.. It waited for a year with Hezbollah firing into Israel before it decided to act decisively. Hezbollah regards Israel as illegitimate so there is no foundation that you can build peace on. But there could be very easily if Hezbollah acknowledged Israel as a legitimate country. All they have to do is acknowledge the right of self determination of Israels ten million citizens and stop bombing Israel. Why is this so hard for them? The only way Israel can allow it's citizens to return to their homes in the north is to push out Hezbollah and Hezbollah will not go without a fight. Also Hezbollah had thousands of rockets trained on Israeli civilian targets. Much war nerd discussion in the past has given credence to their "deterrent power". The only way Israel could decisively push them out without incurring large casualties in its own population was through massive and decisive force with a sprinkling of imagination (a la the pagers). Seems like if Hamas wanted to avoid all this they shouldn't have invaded Israel. The least they could do is acknowledge the right of Israelis to live in peace. This is very basic. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Don't attack Israel. Recognize it. Make peace. Acknowledge the right of self determination for 7.2 million Jews that are descended from Holocaust survivors, Soviet exiles, and Mitzrahi expelled from the countries you are whining about being victims here. It really shouldn't be that hard... I wish you great success in your future endeavors. Given the weakness of your war nerdness, I highly recommend reading some books. James Gelvins "The Israeli-Palestine Conflict" or Benny Morris's "Righteous Victims" or Tom Segev's "One Palestine Complete" are good places to start too get a sense of what is actually going on rather than just resorting to ad hominin drivel. עמ ישראל חי🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

MoldyTolge

The mental image of Gary stacking up, prepped for a commando raid is pretty funny.

MoldyTolge

Totally get what you mean about Cyrus. Feels like he’s a “contact” 🕵️‍♂️

NYCM&AHole

Gary Bretcher the Butcher

MoldyTolge

This is prose. Now watch this long march

Red Herring McGuffin

hey great ep, love to see Aamer and Cyrus on again, tho I've been having an issue with the post on patreon where around the hour mark the recording just cuts out, and it displays it as if I've listened to the ep the whole way through. So I've been listening to the download instead.

Hans Anders

There is no right to occupy Palestine. Not because a book says it’s ok and not because Europeans committed genocide. The only real right to exist Israel can claim is based on the UN saying it can. But then you have to accept all UN rules and international laws. This means among other things that 1) Palestinians from 1948 and descendants have the right to return, 2) the occupation of the West Bank, east Jeruzalem and Gaza is illegal and must be ended, 3) all settlements in those areas are illegal and must be ended, 4) the Palestinians have the right to self determination within 1967 including east Jeruzalem, 5) the Palestinians within ‘67, as people occupied by a colonial power, have the right to resist, including with armed resistance.

Manuscript

Dear Hans, You are doing better than Diego, but your statements indicate that you could also do well to read some books. You are also not answering my question (which asking why this is "Israel's war on Lebanon") and by saying armed resistance is justified, you may be endorsing terrorism which you might want to be careful about (depending on which jurisdiction you live under). A general rule of thumb for me is to never write anything on the internet that I wouldn't mind the FBI or similar organizations reading. Never, the less, I appreciate that you put some time into crafting your statement so I feel as though I owe you a response to its content. Regarding the right to occupy "palestine". The word "Palestine" is a roman name it used when it occupied the Jewish state(s) that originally existed there. I think it is helpful to think of Jews as "Native palestinian's" or "first nation Palestnians". You can't really think of them as occupiers. Everyone living there is technically a "Palestinian" (though I will stick with convention and use "Palestinian" to refer to Arabs that were expelled/fled Israel in 1948 or who lived in the "west bank" and "gaza"). Unfortunately the occupier narrative continues to be ingrained in the Palestinian nationalist consciousness with reference to Israel's existence and not just it's unequivocal occupation of the west bank and gaza and a major (if not insurmountable) obstacle to real peace. I think of Roman subjects during their rule in the region as "Palestinian's" and subsequent inhabitants from the Arab conquests in the 7th century as "Arab Palestinians" etc... After Rome and the eastern roman empire, the area was next occupied by the Arabs and than the Turks. Before the British took over the region from the Ottomans in WWI, "Palestine" did not exist as a poltical entity and was actually divided between three different districts or "vilyets". During the British occupation, incipient arab nationalism (in response to Jewish migration to the area) predominantly requested that the territory become part of Syria. The west bank and Gaza were occupied by Jordan and Egypt after the war of independence and these countries made no moves to grant Palestinian arab's autonomy. Israel acquired these territories in the 67 war and repeated attempts to trade these lands in exchange for peace were rebuffed by Arab neighbors who refused to deal with Israel directly. Israel even offered to trade Gaza away in the 1978 as part of a peace deal with Egypt but Egypt flatly refused. Noone deserves to occupy this place exclusively. They all deserve to live in peace. This means that "Palestinians" should embrace peace side by side with Israel if they really want to have good lives and stop framing the existence of Israel as an "Occupier" (I do agree that Israel does occupy the west bank and gaza but many palestinian nationalists and their war chud sympathizers insist that Israel or any zionist state is always the occupier that should be driven out through terror. This is the position held by Hezbollah and Hamas). 1) All refugees except Palestinian "refugees" are managed by the UN high commission of refugees which seeks to resettle these refugees when repatriation becomes impossible. Palestinians are the only group that has its own agency (UNRWA) that does not seek resettlement. It also treats anyone who is descendant by male lineage from a Palestinian who lived in the mandate between 1946 and 1948. This includes people who are now citizens of other countries. 700k Palestinians were either expelled or left fleeing the war in 1948 after many if them took the initiative to attack Israelis the day after the UN passed the partition plan which Israel accepted and the Arab states and Palestinian's flatly refused. Today there are six million descendents by the UNRWA definition which does not apply to any other refugee group. Millions of ethnic Germans were expelled or fled from eastern European countries at the end of world war ii but they could not be repatriated so rhey were resettled in west Germany. Millions of Indian Muslims and hindus became refugees in 1947 during the partition of india and there is no similar refugee status for them. They were resettled in modern day India, Pakistan, or Bangladesh. Most Palestinian "refugees" were not born in and did not grow up in Israel. Many are actually already citizens of other countries (resettled) save for the UNRWA definition. Israel can only allow refugees who wish to live in peace for humanitarian reasons such as family re-connection and has offered to do this in the past, only to be turned down by Arab states and the PLO (Oslo and 2008 peace talks) because it could not forsake the extremist position that all descendants of Arab inhabitants of the mandate between 46' and 48' are refugees. The "refugee problem", simply put is just an excuse to keep the conflict alive by making an Israeli non starter (because it would eradicate the only Jewish state) and that has never applied to any other refugee group. 2) Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005. It was not occupying it before Oct 7. Because Hamas squandered its opportunity to govern and instead used Gaza as a terror launch platform, Israel now has no choice but to occupy until there is a viable organization that can govern and is not run by terrorists like Hamas. I'm sure Israel would love it if Egypt, Qatar, UAE, turkey, or some organization that recognizes Israel sovereignty could step in but alas non are offering (though they are certainly quick to condemn Israel)... Re West bank and East Jerusalem: Israel also offered to end the occupation in the West bank in 1990s/2000s as part of Oslo. Palestinians would have gotten 96 some percent of the west bank and gaza, Arab districts of East Jerusalem, and peace. They turned it down because of the unprecedented right of return demand. It is also likely that Arafat planned the second intefada after this (according to interviews with his own wife), a wave of suicide bombings which lead to the construction of the security barrier and all the checkpoints (which stopped the suicide bombings). Unfortunately the occupation and checkpoints will continue until the Palestinian authority can ensure that no further suicide bombings/ attempts will take place. That said I do despise the area B Israeli settlers. Israel needs to do more to stop them. Regarding 3/4. The "resistance" you speak of in the current conflict came from Hezbollah and Hamas, not the West bank. Armed resistance will be met with arms. Again, play stupid games... If the pa or any of the existing militant organizations in the West bank was serious about a peace they would drop the fake "right of return" which is not claimed for any other refugee group and violates the sovereignty of most Israelis. Instead they continue to propagate a conflict with the blood of tens of thousands of Palestinians on their hands and the imposition of onerous security measures due to the well founded fears of Israelis. For a very Israel biased but interesting take on the refugee problem, consider einat wilfs "war of return". I think you could also benefit from the more neutral references I posted above for Diego. I wish you all the best in your future endeavors, עמ ישראל חי🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

Manuscript

It's been fun gang. I'm gonna catch some beauty sleep now 🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱💎💎💎 still trying to figure out what the "Israels war" fixation is all about from the all the fakers but perhaps sleeping on the question will help. Unfortunately all I've learned today from you guys is that you are all woefully uninformed, lazy, racist, and not really war nerds.. More like war chuds.

teh_drewski

They won't be. But hey, that's just a new enemy to justify playing new geopolitical games, right?

teh_drewski

Always a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Israel, on both sides.

teh_drewski

Sounds like their beliefs were miscalculated, then?

Gengeros

Israel launching offensive occupying southern parts of Syria. Please cover this.

George

Thank you for bringing on Cyrus. A much better and more knowledgeable guest than Landis

George

It’s not whether Landis was right but that he didn’t know what he was talking about and was just repeating shit from social media. There’s always the chance he’s repeating the right people but his knowledge was shallow. Cyrus could speak in depth about things that Landis could only mention vaguely.

Kawaii Leonard

Great timing and great analysis! Looking forward to next update from the nerds as time allows

Kawaii Leonard

Also I hope John is doing well whatever raid he was involved in!

drizzly_november

I remember during the 2006 war my friend's Maronite dad cheering on the war, saying he hoped the Israelis and Lebanese Muslims wiped each other out.

The Steel Harvest

okay well would a real nerd sea lion around the issue? Israel was actively exterminating human beings (for whatever alleged reason) and their victims' allies came to the fight. If you walked up and stopped a man from beating his child, are you the aggressor? Act like a real war nerd, please.

Manuscript

Dear Chuck, Israel is targeting militants who are embedded in civilian infrastructure in order to prevent it's own civlian's from being killed. Unfortunately this will involve civilian casualties in the affected areas. This is in response to Hamas attacking Israel unprovoked. If you are disputing this than you are not serious. I am not trolling. Do not minimize my serious arguments as trolling. Disputing basic facts IS trolling (what you are doing). Please read my arguments above and give me detailed fact based answers. Please read the references I sent you. I am looking for serious war nerds here. If you can't even acknowledge Hamas instigated the October 7th attack and Hezbollah joined them than I don't know what reality you live in (aside from that you are perhaps a troll). Stop acting like a troll, read a book, and give me reasoned responses to my points backed by evidence. Best of luck in your future endeavors, עמ ישראל חי🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

NYCM&AHole

Fool me twice - can’t get fooled again.

etienne

can you not

gatito

you are defending genocide and it’s fucking disgusting. nothing about what you’re doing is being a “war nerd”.

gatito

pls dont

PostmasterFenian

Ol tolge my Substack polish nemesis of the fix comment section

William

Isreal has always been the aggressor, that’s why it’s “isreal’s war” you stupid fuck. I’m not reading all that boring shit you wrote to justify to your conscience that isreal isn’t a fascist genocidal nation

a clash of purple

I'm sure they don't need random Patreon subscribers to tell them when major war news happens, Jared... I would hope they have other sources.

a clash of purple

Well, he'll have plenty of time to think about it sitting in some hotel in Moscow, I guess.

fw

not reading all that dorky hasbara word salad, just came here to ask if your buddies in the bari weiss stan discord/iof snuff porn telegram channels you clearly derive your main socialisation from have ever come clean with you about how pathetic your little forum signature is? if they haven't told you how cringe it/your existence is yet it's probably just because they make fun of you behind your back for it. stop acting like there's some boyscout War Nerd Pledge and War Nerd CoC you can appeal to the authority of, it makes you sound like such a whiny piece of shit. man you fascists are such crybaby losers. if i were you i wouldnt be begging for the validation and inclusion you seem to be desperately seeking here. tell you what - follow your leader and then i promise we'll all think you were a really cool guy for Really Doing It This Time

a clash of purple

Turkey gets to do a victory dance in the endzone now, I guess. MSM is beyond disgusting to look at right now. From comparing the PKK to Daesh, to blandly repeating Turkey's lies that they had nothing to do with any of this, to blaming Alawites' fears on Assad, to pretending that HTS isn't rebranded al-Qaeda, to ignoring Israel blatantly seizing this opportunity to carve out and occupy parts of the country through military conquest... But whatever. So now what? The U.S. and Turkey got their regime change, or at least regime collapse. I'm sure they're all jerking each other off in Ankara and D.C. right now. What next?

jbwhat

Kind of surprised to find that Jake Sullivan listens to the same pod as me, but I guess he does need to figure out how that region works. Better late than never! Welcome, Jake! You're doing an excellent job here. Much better than those leaflets you guys drop two minutes before you kill a bunch of kids and old people who should know better than to be in the way of all the bombs. Congrats on the election, too! Always on the right side of things. You going to sign onto Cotton's bill saying the West Bank doesn't exist? You crazy kids! Good thing we're just talking numbers and not real live people! Gaza schmaza. Can't wait until Kushner turns it into a resort! I will see you there!

etienne

i was reading a Reuters thing that mentionned that the refugees might get to go home soon and was like you guys serious?

Manuscript

🇮🇱 Dear William. You are not serious. Everything I wrote is truth though certainly not the whole truth. I am open to reasoned arguments that are more detailed than "israel genocide apartheid evil hasbara!" which is similar to what you and your chud friends have written. "Israel has always been the agressor"? what kind of shallow aphorism is this? Are we in sunday school? 🇮🇱 Dear fw. You are also not serious. Please learn how to type in full sentences. Is this how you talk in real life? 🇮🇱 Dear Jbwhat. I have no idea who Jake Sullivan is but it sounds like you are a fan of his. You seem to be praising him repeatedly as though you are a war simp rather than a war nerd. Are you trying to get me on to him? He looks like an ass when I google him. 🇮🇱 Dear gatito. Yelling "genocide" without justification is not being a war nerd either. You are a war chud. Be serious. Explain how precisely this is a genocide and not an extraordinarily violent urban war. I'm open to the notion that all war is genocide. Is this your position as well? What differentiates Israel's actions apart from so many other violent conflicts in the past decades like Iraq, Syria, Korea, Vietnam, which are not generally considered genocides? I'm also open to the argument that these wars WERE genocides. But than why not go after these countries too? Especially given that the current Gaza war has much more justification than the conflicts I mentioned above. Israeli civilians were slaughtered with no prior provocation -- You can just allow armed groups to hang around on your border that do this. I am done writing serious replies to you clowns. You cannot be helped. It is not my responsibility to help you. I will look elsewhere for serious war nerds but not on this Patreon which is full of war chuds like you lot. From now on you can talk to this hand ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ Best of luck in your future endeavors. You are going to need it. Try going to a library. Try reading books and try learning how to write with punctuation and in coherent sentences. If all else fails, consider hiring a personal internet editor :) עמ ישראל חי🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

MoldyTolge

I shouldn’t be surprised to run into a Derek fan with discerning taste

William

Oh I am serious- I think you are a stupid fuck. I love how your argument is, “but, other countries systematically murdered tens of thousands of innocent civilians, and none of THEM were called genocidal maniacs!” Keep whining bitch. No more detailed analysis needs to happen- we all have eyes. We’ve all seen what isreal has done

Manuscript

✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️ ✡️🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬🪬✡️

Manuscript

🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱Dear William. I definitely think that you think that you are being serious. What I actually meant is that, based on what you have written, I cannot take you seriously. I can provide no more arguments as I stated above because it is not my job to save you. Consider reading the books I recommended. They are serious war nerd books. If you read them you may start to become serious yourself (but no guarantees).🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱I can only open the door. You have to walk through it.🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 -Morpheus, of Zion עמ ישראל חי🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

etienne

not beating the "smoking crank" allegations

Manuscript

Now now etienne. I'm just having fun now. 🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱 ⚔️💎✡️Manuscript✡️💎⚔️

fw

wow, the creepy emoji spamming fuck keeps writing 'dear' letters and wants to know about me 'in real life'. cheer up, if youre too stupid to get noticed by all the kiwifarm types as a successful ba[i]ter youll be their new favourite soon; given the breakdown you seem to be having bc ur parasocial objects of desire all recognise u as the repulsive scum u r its probably only a matter of days til they find ur hard drives and its Over

Maggie+Al

listening to this after the collapse of damascus, it seems like if Julani has "matured" half as much as the best case scenario it's in the interests of basicaly every imperial power that he dies quickly under murky circumstances.

a clash of purple

Well, Turkey certainly wants the refugees in *their* borders gone. That's one reason why they committed resources to HTS's big push. They want to create enough stability in Syria that they can repatriate the 1.5 million+ Syrians who fled to Turkey. Hence, why I'm not sure what they'll do next. If they let Syria dissolve into a sectarian bloodbath, then they're stuck with all these refugees, probably with more to come. And so I'm asking, what now? What are the Turks going to do about the Kurds and the SDF? What are they going to do about Israel? What are they going to do about the Russians? What about the Americans? How will they handle their own militias, now that they've won, and the remains of the Syrian government, now that Assad is gone? A lot depends on the Syrian people themselves. Can the different rebel forces put together some kind of power-sharing arrangement so that a new government can be assembled? What stance will they have towards Israel, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah? These are the questions I imagine will be occupying the various power brokers in Syria for a while.

a clash of purple

The West has really tried to turn Julani into a star, but I don't know what's going to happen to him or HTS now that Assad is gone. They aren't the only rebel group, and not the only rebel group with powerful foreign backers, either. I don't know how much credibility Julani has with the Syrian people compared to other leaders, like Assad's Prime Minister, either. I think everyone is waiting for the dust to settle to see what the world looks like now.

Aditya V

The great untold story about the middle east is the role played by the ruling classes in Arab Gulf regimes in befriending Assad, Iran, while simultaneously destroying them by proxy forces. Time will tell, but I am sure the Israeli bombing of Lebanon was greenlighted by UAE and SAudis "Asghar Zarei, an analyst close to the regime, said that Assad had “misbehaved” since the Hamas-Israel war in October 2023, without giving details." https://www.ft.com/.../0311cae9-f35b-4e7a-952b-e26aba870549

Hilary is Pant-suited Syphilis

To be fair I think they did inflict losses on Hezbollah, but Assad being toppled had more to do with his own incompetence/unpopularity/cruelty, his troops total lack of morale, a brilliant rebranding by al Qaeda linked forces, and most importanly Turkish influence and less to do with Hezbollah being militarily degraded. Assad pulled Hezbollah troops out of Aleppo and leaned into a closer relationship with gulf states (likely mostly at the request of Russia) and away from the resistance axis.

Cary Confino

It's like what Lenin said. You look for the man who benefits and uhhhh

.

Please have Aamer and Cyrus on more. Episodes like this should be free to the public so we can spread it around to friends and family so they can hear a different perspective than what they’re being force fed by western media. Thanks so much for this show yall.

Tyler Berglund

Hands down the best analysis on this recent escalation in Syria. I listened to it after the fall of Assad and still I say this. Awesome.

Pay

Fantastic episode.

Hans Anders

It’s amazing how well this analysis holds up. Also, although Landis was correct on a lot of points, Cyrus is much more specific on why things happen the way they do. I think he’s much more insightful.

PostmasterFenian

I am no longer making jokes at the expense of the polish people since I heard someone describe that sense of humor as peak destiny viewer- which ewww

MoldyTolge

Agreed, that is a big oof. It’s also kinda British, they love their polish jokes in the UK. I’m not that touchy it’s just like find a punchline besides “as a group they are all submental imbeciles”

Henry Ermer

Great episode, always love Aamer!

Cameron Young

I didn’t want to admit but Landis was right on the near term points- look at the cease fire agreement. Solid episode and you are right about the details Cyrus provides.

Said Sheck

Does Cyrus have a twitter?

G

Totally agree with Cyrus about Americans calling Netanyahu “Bibi.” Feels like it trivializes the situation

Steff

Oh boy, the last few minutes of this episode is a barrage of gut punches.

Dude

Agree with others that this was one of the top RWN eps ever. Aamer and Cyrus rule.

Ander Pierce

Not to advocate theft but I've never hesitated to pass the occasional mp3 to close friends or family 😉

PostmasterFenian

Yeah British people and Americans are the only nationality really worth making fun of and now Israelis (also to a lesser extent Germans)

gatito

you are severely mentally ill, any harm that anyone here wishes upon you could not possibly be worse than what you are already experiencing now, i hope you find help before it is too late (if it is not already)

George P

Echoing everyone else to say this is an incredible episode

James

I don’t trust Landis as far as I can throw him. I trust Cyrus.

Isaac Suárez

Thanks for this episode- it provides much needed detail and context around the fall of Assad. Given the utter poverty of anglophone coverage (which notably dodges the question of HTS or Jolani’s stance toward the Gaza genocide) this kind of analysis is invaluable. Keep it up! The more Aamer and Cyrus content the better.

Hocho

Where can we find more Cyrus?