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Radio War Nerd EP #488 — World of Wars: False-Flag North Koreans, Syria Rhymes with Libya, Assassins' Faces (Patreon)

Published:
2024-12-12 17:31:38
Edited:
2024-12-12 17:52:43
Imported:
2024-12
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Content

Recorded: December 11, 2024

The War Nerd returns from the bowels of hell, otherwise known as "The Social Security Administration office on Alabama Street", to discuss some of the latest developments in coups, false flags, war defeats & forgotten nerds...

(image: h/t Tom Parsons)

Total time: 1:18:54Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

Files

Comments

NYCM&AHole

John you should’ve mentioned that. As a lawyer I’ve had to advise clients to get us embassy notarizations instead of traveling to America

GC

From the thumbnail alone I know this is gonna be a good one updated: Raw-dogging a trip from Chilliwack to a specific location in effing Bellingham is its own kind of heroism, John; glad you're OK!

Karl Childers

sure Thomas Crooks looks like a milk-smelling runt but if he had landed his shot he'd still have plenty of defenders. but he didn't, he missed, and in america we only give a fuck if you win. loser stink is a thousand times worse than milk stink.

xxx

John in eXile from his homeland once again

Hans Anders

I now like to think all Johns wanderings were the result of not knowing satnav

NYCM&AHole

Lol love the artwork

NYCM&AHole

Also looking forward to more CEOs getting popped by randos. If Congress won’t fix it, people will take the 2nd amendment option. These people are so cloistered and stupid its good for them to feel fear

Townes

Hey fellas, a bit disappointed that you’re pushing back the “will you be killed during the regime change” until the next episode. Due to, uh, recent developments in no particular region, I was really, really hoping that you’d clear that up as quickly as possible.

Indigo Olson

As a bellingham resident I feel very special that you were in my town

drizzly_november

He also picked a lame target, the guy was googling both Trump and Biden’s locations. Didn’t matter which, so he picked the one closest to him. I think Mark’s right, Hinckley kind of took the frisson out of presidential assassins and made it something any schlub could do. For Luigi, an Americans hasn’t targeted a businessmen like this since the 19teens Red Scare.

ploob

Damn sight better than murdering a bunch of kids or your boss.

.

Josh Shapiro the uber Zionist governor of PA, genocidal freak said “here in america we don’t settle policy disputes with violence” irg to Luigi. Just insane exceptionalism. America is THE most violent country in the modern world both home and abroad. Chickens coming home to roost. I truly do not believe this is a one off going forward if we don’t form some sort of anti imperialist, workers political party that is multi-ethnic, lgbtq inclusive. “Adventurism” won’t lead to real change even if this assassination sparked a legitimate class consciousness across the political spectrum. We’ve all probably seen the absolutely insane oped’s from the ruling class legacy media shitting all over this dude even going as so far to say that the healthcare ceo was actually the working class hero. They will not change.

PostmasterFenian

Drats with the return of the war nerd Gary Brecher AI is no longer needed! Oh well it was currently stuck in a local minimum where it only discussed dental issues

Podconsoomer

Houthis may not be socially progressive. But they are nice guys to me, they’re one of the only governments in the world doing anything to stop the genocide!!

Øystein Monsen

Mercenaries are banned under international law - at the very least it would be some inconvenient PR if they were to openly and flagrantly violate the rules on something like this.

Philip Girvan

Hinkley at least hit his target. I’d say the failed attempts on Gerald Ford turned the idea of presidential assassins into a punch line. Hinkley was just swimming in their wake. Reagan, JFK, Trump…I get. Why anyone would be arsed to shoot Jerry Ford is beyond me.

Jimmy B

the lefty optimist in me likes to think this all could mark the high tide for the Western run global order in the way that Cambodia and Vietnam falling in within weeks of each other 50 years ago did for the ascendent Soviet world, but maybe Pax Americana just keeps soldiering on for decades to come in its more overtly Hitlerite fashion.

Karl Childers

the Ford assassination attempts were so weird. one of them by Squeaky Fromme, previously of the Manson family, and the other by Sara Jane Moore who had previously been an FBI informant. Fromme didn't even have bullets in her gun. fuck if i know what was going on there.

Karl Childers

either way it's gonna get hitlerier before it gets better i think we can all agree on that

PostmasterFenian

I don't think Hezbollah performed that much worse than they did in 2006 the israeli surveillance methods were vastly improved though. Israel took around 1000 casualties in Lebanon this time during a shorter campaign where they did not try and contest or capture and occupy territory (most of their incursions where extremely brief raids under 12 hours). And they were able to score some major victories with air power and the pager attack but otherwise I don't think they preformed better. I think Israel would still be unable to occupy lebanon or much of syria like they were able to in the 80s.

N

An under-disussed part of the Houthi leadership of Yemen is the ongoing agricultural revolution in Yemen. This last year self sufficiency in garlic was achieved. It may seem small but this is the first year in a long time that they don't have to import it, and it's a staple crop. There's a reason they have been able to withstand the tides unlik someone like Assad

William

Well, well, well, look who’s back from the grassy knoll. Can you really sleep at night, Mr. Dr. The war nerd? After using Luigi as your patsy?

William

Biden and blinken have made it their goal to do the stupidest fucking foreign policy goals - get Finland in NATO, get South Korea and Japan in a defensive pact, Ukraine (need I say more) like, the most worthless, stupid objectives that they think are big achievements. It’s like they poorly fixed up an old ass Pontiac firebird from the dump and are acting like it’s a Camaro or something

MHJ

Dying empires do win wars sometimes they have big wins. Transforming those wins into durable gains is the problem. The economic damage done to Israel in this conflict has been big they are a country completely dependent on foreign direct investment. They have to clean up the physical damage from Hezbollah while dealing with the fact that their business community is in the toilet and their government debt is near junk level. Israel ain’t going anywhere until America can’t afford it to prop it up but America’s fiscal situation is also not good.

MHJ

I have an explanation for Iran’s behavior. It’s true that Iran does possess the ability to hit the West hard and blow up the world economy. They proved it in their missile strike on Israel. However, the US Navy is still really big and could afford to lose some ships and still blockade Iran cutting off oil revenue. Beyond missile range America could cripple the Iranian economy this way. The Iranian leadership doesn’t feel it’s worthwhile to engage in a war of choice since they stand to lose their economic lifeline. Also they gotta be scared of getting nuked.

Jason Thompson

Well, that was one of the most depressing episodes you have ever done. Electronic Intifada keeps struggling and trying to find the bright side & new strategies but you paint a bleak picture. I confess I am confused tho by why, if Jolani is really doing all this with US/Israeli approval, Israel is bombing & invading Syria instead of issuing some “yay Jolani” statement. Or is this their payment for playing matchmaker and Jolani/Syria is really supposed to just suck it up? “Getting 9/10ths of Syria is better than not getting any of Syria”?

Alejandro Pepsi

I've had the theme song to Blowback stuck in my head for the past week and a half

Karl Childers

israel is attacking syria A: to gain territory and B: to eliminate air defenses. the first i think is self-explanatory (lebensraum), and the second is because syrian air defenses were the main obstacle to israel reaching iran. there's no way to guarantee what jolani does next or even that he'll stay in power at all so israel is eliminating those air defenses now while they have a clear shot. as for what jolani thinks about syrian territory being taken, israel doesn't care. now that assad is ousted jolani has served his purpose and could become king of syria or die in a ditch it doesn't matter to israel.

JJ

The Israelis will not give HTS any leeway. They are happy for HTS to block Hezbollah supply lines but don’t want to leave them any heavy weapons from the former SAA arsenal.

MoldyTolge

The DMV does have pretty good service! Maybe I just go to the greatest DMV on earth but I’ve only had smooth sailing experiences with the DMV

Øystein Monsen

Yes, I also noted this - the on-the-ground performance of Hezbollah seems to have been perfectly creditable against the IDF itself, but the terror bombing and assassination campaigns are modes of warfare to which Hezbollah didn't really have an answer. Israeli offensive intelligence and airforce seems to have performed quite well, but I haven't got any indication that Hezbollah were outclassed on the ground (and, indeed, the Israelis abandoning their demands for a security cordon in south Lebanon seems to indicate the opposite).

Hans Anders

Garlic as a staple crop? I gotta try Yemeni food now

William

Yeah, but as Cyrus explained, Iran and hezbollah are already talking with HTS about letting their stuff through

fw

The stone pot cooked dishes seem absolutely elite especially

fw

Yeah, although it does seem like all empire knows how to do is run the century old playbook of aerial bombardment, wire tap (eat hot fries) build walls and (lie/) perfidy etc, that still leads to horror. Personally am interested to see what happens when the arctic would-be/currently existing shipping channels get more kinetic, especially since yemeni resistance may lead to copycats the way J + M muse the claims denier may do

PostmasterFenian

I think they probably inflicted higher casualties on hezzbollah even though they took around the same number of casualties as they did in 2006

a clash of purple

Let's be real: there are a number of very comfortable people in the West who have invested a lot emotionally in the "Axis of Resistance" because they don't want to make any sacrifices of their own to stand up to the empire. They root for people like Assad and the Iranian regime, even though they're pretty horrible in their own right, because they refuse to stand up for themselves. People wouldn't have to make excuses for how genuinely nasty Iran or Russia are if they had any alternatives to offer. Instead they'd rather continue enjoying the benefits of living in the imperial metropole and just passively spectate as it destroys those who get in its way. Not trying to single you out or say anything about you specifically, Dwayne Monroe. I don't know you or who you are. But if we're going to talk about the psychology of people's reactions to current events, there's a reason why a majority of people actively refuse to know about any of this. It's a kind of cowardice to bury your head in the sand and pretend you aren't involved and you don't share any of the responsibility, but it's probably even sicker to stare at the horrors without doing anything to stop them.

a clash of purple

Why is this episode so depressing in particular? Whether Assad stayed in power or not, or Hezbollah signed a cease-fire or not, the genocide in Gaza continues. That's the real story. At least now there's a chance that the Syrian civil war will finally end. The Syrian people have suffered long enough. There's a possibility now for things to improve, maybe.

Schaeffer Mallory

Yes to the face fascism thing but also, and I think more importantly, he failed. And his motivations, as far as we can discern, were arbitrary. So there's nothing to emotionally invest in Crooks

a clash of purple

We should all appreciate that there is a world where Donald Trump's head exploded Scanners-style on live TV in the middle of some stupid rambling sentence, though.

William

I’ve been hesitant to say that hezbollah has been soundly defeated by isreal because we really don’t know anything about the battles that have been fought. If they remain an effective fighting force in southern Lebanon, isreal hasn’t beaten them. It feels like people expected the idf to bounce off the southern defenses like a rubber ball against a brick wall and that was probably never going to be the case

JJ

Israel is also taking land on the Syria Lebanese border that could help it flank Hezbollah defense lines

Jess

they don't like any of the other Resisters enough to ruin their lives over it... I think they even liked the Israelis killing some of them. It's the equivalent of what a MAGA thinks about Ukraine... just a big waste of money, I'm not dying over this

William

They’ve definitely been bloodied; the wider axis of resistance/shia crescent is in shambles, but the strength of an army is more in its NCOs than its top brass and the real question is, how much of that tactical talent destroyed by isreal? I’d say that the idf ground forces still leave a lot to be desired; there’s no way they went through the first-to-second Chechen war analysis in between getting their ass handed to them by Hamas and invading Lebanon

Jacob Kreier

I think probably a good reason everyone forgot Thomas Crooks is that he missed.

Jacob Kreier

Yeah a bit of a preemptive eulogy in this episode. We shall see.

Jacob Kreier

I remember how the podcast was talking about the Russia-Ukraine war a year or more ago, suggesting it would be impossible for Russia to win and that it would go on for decades. Even today Mark said that Ukraine is going to have adequate weapons deliveries since congress released the a new aid package, ignoring that the NATO pantry is empty and most of that money will be squandered.

Jason Thompson

I’d like to be hopeful. I know the Assads sucked and killed a ton of people and only Partisangirl liked them. I don’t wanna tell Syrians “well you gotta endure this horrible dictatorship because your government is fighting for Palestine” just like I don’t wanna tell Palestinians “well you gotta wait and ensure this horrible occupation because Syrians are fighting a dictatorship.” I’ve never wanted so badly for many of my favorite political commentators to be wrong (about Jolani etc). But those recent interviews where Jolani and his reps won’t say anything bad about Israel even when asked about them bombing the country…. 😬

Christopher Price

i'm sure one of the big questions the irgc and the iranian mic will work on is--how do you intercept stealth fighters and/or their payloads from the ground? the use of f-35s in lebanon showed that we are in a new generation of air warfare. 1940 to 1980 you could counter air supremacy with well-drilled AA batteries. Then from the 1980s onward shoulder mounted missiles were the go to for rebel groups and insurgencies. Russia-Ukraine has been late Cold War aircraft (Mig 29s + Su 25s, while newer planes have been patrolling the Baltics and far east) plus drones. Now, how do you counter stealth aircraft that can see you coming from 150 km away? (the question is solved at a strategic scale for world powers with ews but a massive question at a tactical level for non world powers).

Benke

John was looking for a form A38. Asterix fans would get the joke.

Benke

In Minecraft of course

Isaac Suárez

I agree- I think a great deal will depend on what Syria looks like in the next few months. If there is chaos, there will be smuggling routes that will allow for resupply. If HTS does consolidate, as Cyrus alluded to, there may very well be a modus vivendi (since I doubt that Jolani has much love for Israel.) If HTS consolidates, and pursues a more Saudi style of governance and forms close ties with the west, then Hezbollah may be screwed. Beyond this, I think it depends on how far Israel would go if they fought another war. Fighting a conventional battle is quite different from fighting a war of occupation against a hostile population. Israel can’t afford a long, drawn out, overextended occupation- they were facing pretty heavy casualties (particularly from their elite units) and the fatigue of endless conflict was eroding Israeli political unity. All that being said, I think Hezbollah survived. They still have the capacity to financially provide for their domestic constituencies. They still had an intact fighting force that hit targets in Israel, and inflicting attritional losses to the last day. The LAF doesn’t have the capacity to disarm or fight them. They did not “win” but no victory against the united power of Israel and Europe was ever likely possible in a conventional war. They suffered heavy losses, but they fought a broadly popular war and many will likely still view them with sympathy. Israel will be vulnerable in whatever buffer zones that occupy, and the more space they take- the more targets they will provide.

Matelda

And he left so little trace of a life, it's as if he was grown in a vat.

JoR

"Do any of us seriously think that the result of all the chaos and genocidal violence being inflicted on the world by the US and its vassal states will be a ‘pax Americana’?" I don't know, does the show "seriously think this?". I can even agree that they're maybe "burying" Hezbollah too quickly. After all, isn't that the lesson of, I don't know, ~500 episodes they've done? The Irish "performing poorly" in 1916 didn't lead to them losing. The Vietnam losing millions of people didn't lead to them losing. This isn't to say some groups don't genuinely lose in the end. But I don't think the shows hosts are particularly "high" on America currently. But they also have to evaluate the hear and now, and the now is that the US rules based international order is wrecking havoc

Podconsoomer

True. But I gotta say. Justin also thought the regime would hold up against hts this past week. Didn’t happen. I think Justin and john are a bit too optimistic but they do make some good points

William

I think isreal and the u s can look like they’re winning right now, similarly to how Assad and the Syrian army looked like it had stabilized the country with Russian help. That said, isreal is in a rough place right now, economically, and demographically; if they’re conscripting the ultra-orthodox then it’s just as bad as Ukraine doing another wave of mobilization. It feels like they have secured this victory at the very end of their tether; then again, you can’t argue with John’s point about what you can do with an unlimited military budget

Jimothy Realname

The IDF didn't beat Hezbollah, Hezbollah stopped them in their tracks. The IAF is what beat them, by making it clear that they would do to Lebanon what they did to Gaza if Hezbollah kept fighting

Ali Saribas

Came in here to respectfully contend the War Nerd's rather dour retrospective on Hezbollah's latest performance, and it looks like I'm not the only one. From what I've seen, their ground forces performed exceptionally well, especially given the circumstances. Of course they have taken massive losses, but not because of incompetency on the ground (aside from counter espionage efforts maybe), mostly due to Israel having overwhelming air superiority, and the same can be said for the IDF's performance in Gaza as well. Take away their air power and they're just as mid-rate as any other army in the middle east. In fact, this latest round has made me even more confident in stating that Hezbollah's ground forces are the best in the region.

Ghordo

@Matelda He may have left little of a trace, but he was a person who lived and there are many people out there like him

OP

Completely unrelated question - does anyone know how newcomers are supposed to subscribe to RWN these days? I was recommending to a friend last night and when he downloaded Patreon it said you can’t subscribe to RWN via Patreon anymore. Thanks to anyone who knows!

Stray Catenaccio

When I went to Western Washington University in Bellingham, that Social Security building was across the street from the nearest bus stop to the place I was renting! Alabama street is wide and wet with cars going too fast — definitely not an easy little building to find (also wrapped in an ugly chainlink fence), I’m glad the war nerd was able to get his appointment!

OP

Thank you Igor 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

WIll Patton

Imagine my surprise as I sit down for breakfast with a little RWN in my house just off Alabama St in Bellingham, WA. What a small world of wars!

Tim Quirk

John is very funny. Chilliwack to Bellingham is a very easy drive by West coast standards.

Matt Colston

He was in Bellingham! Hey! Alabama Street! Right down the street from me! That fog was terrible btw.

Studio Novaya by Fredrick Edward ; Spandau22 coming 2027

I would really love to see you all do an episode on the history of terrorism as a charge in United States courts. Jeff Fort was the first and he is still in solitary in Florence Supermax. The American Gulag system. As fucked up as it is my hope for the Mangione trial is that we are able to highlight the flight of Americans suffering at state hands for the same charge. Fort never was convicted of killing anyone. He simply took money from Gaddafi for the PStones. Mangione killed one person that we know of. They are extremely different, but regarding the way, the legal system is treating them. I think there is something to look at.