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Recorded: March 1, 2026

Sunday morning. The War Nerd and Ames discuss day 2 of the US-Israeli empire's latest murder rampage on Iran.

Total time: 51:08Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

Aaron C

Excited to see this. Been reading random social media. All sorts of random BS going around, you guys always have good info. Thanks!

Sneb

This would be a great episode to unlock. I would love to share this with my friends who aren’t subscribers

Alvaro

Thanks for posting!

George Mitri

…seconded on the “please can you unlock this” sentiment, if just to quote Mark just going “It’s just copy-paste 2003!”

Kamran Husain

mr war nerd any tips on how to be an american refugee in europe?

GC

thank you in advance for this analysis of what Brother Ali called America's "billion dollar a week killing brown people habit," another copy-paste from the 2000s. This wretched world.

Kamran Husain

also the school hit was on purpose they’ve hit dozens of hospitals

Sword of Eos

It's just so fucking stupid. They actually thought assassinating senior leadership would cow them and bring them to the table. What they actually did was make a whole bunch of martyrs during Ramadan, which is what you would do if you wanted maximum escalation and a maximum Iranian response.

Michael

John Dolan’s story about the “F*ck Iran” carving reminds me of the Two Bad Neighbours Simpsons episode where they find the anti Ayatollah Khomeini shirt in the attic and Marge pushes Homer to get rid of it and Homer says “Marge it works for any Ayatollah.”

Joshua Garcia

Everything in US is made with profit in mind. Profit over productivity or efficiency. Sure as heck our weapons are lackluster. Then we sell them around the world, to shoot at those that go without.

Kawaii Leonard

much needed therapy session with the war nerds

Sword of Eos

We're stupid and Israel is evil, hitting hospitals and grade schools trying to make the country ungovernable

RLD

The “Millenium Challenge” incident is one of the classic War Nerd stories. It was mentioned on a Chapo appearance if I recall correctly. The cautionary edge of it being Iran would use a high volume of small attackers against larger US assets. We’re seeing echoes of this in the use of drones against land targets. I’m wondering if we’ll see this extend to the original context against naval assets.

Quinn Tucker

Important advice to John given he's new to twitter: It is COMPLETELY flooded with ai bots, it has become absolutely ridiculous the last couple years, every single post relating to anything political is almost automatically replied to by contrarion, inhumanly stupid nonsense, mostly to intentionally draw engagement but also fpr propaganda purposes. I'm not saying this as a "russian bot" style dismissial of other views, there absolutely are millions of deeply stupid people and straight up nazis on twitter, but that noise is dwarfed by the chatter of god knows how many bots. It makes it an incredibly depressing and frustrating experience to interact with anything, because AT LEAST half the time the stupid, evil thing you are reading is a bot made to be stupid and evil. I'm really not exagerating, look at anything about palestine and you will have dozens of blue check bots with automatically generated takes designed to make you feel insane and hopeless. That, on top of twitter's existing elon-era psycho hegemony, makes it a bad bellweather for determining how people are really reacting to most things

Martin

I was going to mention the bot comment too. Bot farms are ridiculously easy to operate and marketing firms have been using them for at least 10 years to push products on even places like Reddit that are allegedly more “vetted.”

Doug Cartel

khamenei was basically retired since the june war anyways. killing him affected nothing

Doug Cartel

aragchi did all that song and dance with diplomacy so everyone understood that iran was not the aggressor

Sean Enright

Mark it’s so important that you keep repeating the Robert Jackson idea of aggressive war being the supreme crime against humanity. American propaganda starts as a given that this worst crime will inevitably be committed, it’s just the sub crimes that matter in American politics, if at all.

Sean Enright

The Nuremberg movie is well cast and acted but barely scratches the surface of this issue, mostly because it does focus on other interesting topics.

NYCM&AHole

The other banger is the odrub odrub tel Aviv song.

Chubby Justin

I've been refreshing my search on ABRAHAM LINCOLN every 10 minutes or so like I'm checking baseball scores, just to see if they hooked the big fish.

Jimothy Realname

@Chubby Justin I have a bottle of champagne with the USS Lincoln's name on it. I might break it out for a destroyer, though

Kyle Erickson

They even killed Ahmadinejad to show how flippantly they’re murdering useless people

Kyle Erickson

Which is funny considering Elon’s stated rationale for buying Twitter was to cut down on the bots. By monetizing the “blue check” and putting blue check replies at the top, Elon just monetized more effective bots. He wanted his cut.

William

I don’t think anything can capture the surreality of the video from the Lebanese wedding from the 12 day war, with abba in the background

Aaaaaaaaaaa

I also thought the “Khamenei wanted to be martyred” line was kind of strange. If so, why was he surrounded by family? Stoically accepting a noble death, and luring your family into an airstrike are very different notions.

Kleixa

Terrified when I think of how vulnerable Shia will be in the coming decade. If Iran falls they will have no state protection and an incredibly hostile world, we know the risks of that state of affairs well.

J P 3

I've read some criticism of the war game claiming that the U.S. General acting as IRGC, Van Riper had, among other things motorcycles that were able to relay communications at light speed. e.g. part of the war game assumed completely disrupted communications. The other was the sinking of an aircraft carrier and naval fleet through swarm attacks involving swaming small boats. They may have actually taken that one to heart given that our aircraft carriers are positioned outside the Persian Gulf (e.g. probably more about Iranian missiles than small boats).

J P 3

The U.S. strategy has assumed that the Iranian regime is teetering on the verge of collapse, although one of the ironies here is that Iran's repressive regime may outlast some of our friendly dictatorships. Bahrain in particular seems particularly vulnerable. Either way, a disaster for the region and the people of the region. Just pure idiocy. A waste of lives and resources that is planting rotten seeds for generations to come..

JJ

Good choice for thumbnail art

Gabo Goff

If Israel can get launchers now how much can Iran retaliate. Got to use them while you can

Larry Dimes

The big question I have and have had, in the Indo-Pak border conflict, in Iran last summer, in Venezuela and now in Iran again is this? Where is the PLA? People rightly ribbed the Soviet Union for totally chickening out whenever their client states were threatened. But China is content to do nothing at all for them. In the Sino-Vietnamese war for example even Brezhnev told Beijing if they marched too far in China would face Soviet nuclear retaliation. But China can't even be bothered to do that, let alone supply air defense munitions never mind """volunteers""" like they did after Kim Il Sung bit off more than he could chew in the 50's. I wonder if India will get the confidence to be more muscular in the disputed border regions as a result.

a clash of purple

What makes you think China isn't doing anything? They're providing some support, I'm sure, but their strategy is clearly to fight America to the last Iranian. They have no incentive to go to the mats for Iran. Yeah, losing Iran's oil will be annoying for them. But no matter what happens next in the Middle East, America will be hurt worse than China. And that's good enough for them.

David Haigh

At this point I just picture you guys as the "Yes Dear" meme, every time America drags you out for another emergency ep! Not sure what I'd do without these sanity checks though, so Ty!

Barry

I mean... I feel Board of Peace has it in for you guys... Making you do emergency episodes every few days... I'm annoyed because you guys mentioned doing a UK episode which would be funny but all these wars pushing our backwards island down the pecking order 🙂‍↕️

Rick from the sandhills

Wasn't Hussein killed with his children or something? I think family martyrdom is kind of a thing in Shiism.

Candido Gonzalez

China is providing targeting info through their Beidou satellite system

Christopher Small

It will be interesting to see what the new leadership in Iran shapes up to be. A lot of people responded to the assassination by pointing out that he’s not indispensable, which is true. But he is the supreme leader that the state is constitutionally built around. Moreover, Khamenei was quite important to making the Islamic Republic what it is. He very much was the Stalin to Khomeini’s Lenin. Where Khomeini kind of did take the idea that the supreme leader was supposed to be an aloof spiritual head-of-state more seriously because he had the charisma and clerical/personal authority to coral the competing power centers of the early republic. Khamanei, by contrast, was more of a bland operator who built up more mechanisms of formal control, ballooning the supreme leader’s staff several times over as he micromanaged things more-and-more in his competitions with technocrats like Rafsanjani and reformists in the civilian government. Even if he was withdrawing from public life in his old age, Khamanei’s death does leave a lot of things up in the air. And without a designated success, and no obvious replacement among the clerical class, there’s an open question as to whether that center can hold. That’s perhaps a reason why so many people seem to assume power will gravitate even more towards the IRGC, with the supreme leader being more of a puppet, but we’ll see. As self-interested as institutions are, I kind of suspect the IRGC is cognizant of the resentment they engender, and would know better than to just nakedly put themselves in charge like that. And they may that it’s harder to make the guy who’s theoretically the ultimate authority on everything a puppet than you’d think. That’s what happened with Khamanei, after all

William

Im willing to say that it is likely (67% chance) this war doesn’t last longer than two weeks. The US and isreal don’t have the air defense to stop missile and drone barrages forever and in some respects, you could say that Iran only has to hit one ship before the US tolerance for casualties is reached, given the reaction to the houthis. You can’t bomb Iran into regime change, even with nuclear weapons so the US strategy is akin to pushing on a string

William

Ukraine gets less weapons

JoR

Like William said, even less patriots?

JoR

I guess the follow up question is, is it Chinese policy to stick its neck out there that far? Yes in theory it would make sense to provide better anti air munitions. But look at Ukraine and Russia. Every weapon system is getting its shit thrown out there . If their AA stuff is legit, why let the US sniff out how to counteract it? And with volunteers, I think they rightfully understand it’s not worth the hassle lol. Let America bloody itself , even if you “lose” “allies”

Jason Thompson

If Russia fails to help Iran in any meaningful sense, wonder if they’ll get rewarded afterwards with Trump giving them a plum slice of Ukraine.

JoR

This is going to sound flippant considering the damage that is going to be done for Iran. But for the world increasingly shifting against Israel, it might be impossible to quantify how important for PR the footage of Israel *constantly* getting hit is. Same as the 12 day war. This is widely accessible footage that entire generations could never dream of occurring lol.

Doug Cartel

I cannot stress enough how stupid america is not just for martyring Khamenei, but leaving Larijani alive.

Doug Cartel

Everyone will be talking about how killing Khamenei not only makes him heroic but it allows the Fatwa to be overturned, but Larijani is the guy who has been in charge of all military preparations in Iran since the June war. YOU DIDNT KILL HIM IN THE OPENING SHOTS, YOU LOST

Arielle Curtin

Mark, I think I heard you say “cache” (cash), meaning a hidden stash of something. Did you mean “cachet” (cashay), meaning special sauce?

CT

Has it been officially confirmed? His wiki page still has yet to confirm, for whatever that’s worth.

JoR

I definitely agree overall but I think even if they killed Larijani, would it shift the war in the way they think these assassinations go? Genuinely seems like the US and Israeli still think they’re fighting Hamas or Hezbollah. Iran is a united, cohesive nation state of 100+million people: it has a long nationalistic history and a legit military infrastructure. Yet the elites think you kill a couple dozen , or even a few hundred, leaders and it’ll all collapse. Very wishful thinking lol. I’m sure anyone in the US armed forces would agree, if the big wigs got wiped out tomorrow, the next goons in charge would do fine, if not better

JoR

My only counter point is, if you’re Iran why stop now? What deal can the US give you that would even matter or mean anything? But I guess the US would just do what Churchill did to Ireland in 23. “Take this deal or we’ll nuke you”

Logan Ausherman

Iran has shown a history of capitulation.

Vincent

I'm so mad at your for getting this stuck in my head

William

I made this prediction before I heard tha Trump has said it’ll be a “4 week campaign” but I still think a ceasefire is likely in the next two weeks

parker

I mean that seems a bit harsh of a word considering this is also the same regime that faught the Iran Iraq war lol. They fought that war tooth and nail at great cost to themselves and there people past the point they got Saddam out so like lol

parker

Don't worry kier starmers fucking stupid ass is going to somehow get Britain involved the second Russian lethal aid shipments happen. (If it does)

parker

In my opinion I think we might legitimately see some of the Gulf states fall if this lasts for a few more weeks. Like the amount of "cucked" and I use that word just because it describes the leadership of the Gulf states behavior is happening eventually some people are just gonna be like what's even the point of accepting slavery and destitution if your not even ruled by actual Muslims let alone political leaders.

parker

Considering the performance of the us navy in the Gulf I think It's more to do with that. Remember they were losing multiple aircraft and almost getting hit by missiles by the houthis

Barry

Nothing so dramatic required unfortunately. We are a glorified US air base with the city of London money laundry attached, so have been involved from the beginning...

.

There’s been credible reports that he’s alive.

JoR

Mark, your point about Trump distracting from the loss in Minneapolis cannot be overstated. For the true Maga supporters, Trump is completely betrayed them on immigration to them even before ICE platform was maybe 10% of what they truly they feel Trump bitched out of Minneapolis. They have this typical whiny loser mentality that they’ve already lost in mid terms in 2028 along with other decisions related to H2B visas .

teh_drewski

The Iranian response has been weak. Yes, a few strikes get through but either the US and Israel have effectively targeted Iran's offensive capability, they have not put serious assets at risk, or the Iranian threat was always overblown. Pinging missiles around certainly makes for a fireworks show but at this point nothing Iran has done will in any way deter the US and Israel aggression.

Carter Adams

This isn’t going to work. The Islamic Republic will still stand when Trump changes his mind and moves on to the next thing. A few weeks of expensive gas and bad poll numbers and no spontaneous rising up to great the bombs as liberators is all it will take. We’re going to lose this like we lose everything. This country is so horrible and embarrassing.

JoR

I don’t disagree but, even if they could hit the US back as hard as they’re hitting you, would Iran even be able to do it? Let’s say they do mine the strait to cripple the US. The US won’t stop and they have nukes lol

J P 3

There are reports that the Israelis are attempting to mobilize Kurds in Syria, Iraq and Iran against the Iranian government. Presumably to support a breakaway region in Iran. What exactly is the Turkish response going to be to this, and what are the odds that Trump has even factored this consideration into his own assessment? What is Bibi's assessment? Does he actually want to draw Turkey into a conflict with the U.S. too?

LET ME DELETE MY ACCOUNT YOU FUCKING ASSHOLES

As long as China and Russia "KINETICALLY" stay out this it will just drain the US of all strength. I assume then they can make whatever moves, stepping over or around the husk.

Xander Udo

Maybe I've missed it, but I haven't seen any mention of F35s or B2s flying over Iran. Isn't that the definite evidence that stealth is basically fake?! At least against a "medium power" such as Iran. (As i have seen Iran being designated as) Wonder of this will change the way defence equipment is organised in Natostan

Sword of Eos

I think Trump just wiped out the capitulator faction

Jonathan Penn

Great job on an unfolding situation! To John's amazement at the stupidity of people, I offer Talbot's words from the "Maid of Orleans" by Schiller, "That monumental stupidity that even the Gods rage against in vain." I also very much appreciated your awareness of how much confusion and half truths are floating around and how difficult it is to sort through the propaganda. Just today I read that Trump is holding forth that Iran was about to attack us. Sure, just after the Martians landed. Again, great job. As the war continues, as it surely will, I hope you will keep up the reporting and sifting of false from true.

J P 3

On this question, Matthew Petti at Reason suggested this first today, but it makes sense to me that this reported "Kurdish mobilization", is probably more a cover for U.S. Special forces operations inside Iran than an organic action. It kind of fits as well with reporting tonight about the Trump administration's push for "boots on the ground". Obviously just a guess. The Turkish response to this news also seems way too sedated for it to be genuinely credible.

Jeff Normal

For the last few decades, China has had a policy of “do nothing and win” As annoying as this is to us (or maybe just me) watching from the sidelines, it seems to be working pretty well.

radiowarnerd

That's a good question. Before you fly to Europe, start looking at rental prices for real estate online. If you fly into a really expensive area, your money will vanish quickly. But parts of Europe are surprisingly cheap. If you don't want to buy a car (and doing that can be very tricky) then live in a city. In our experience, groceries are not very expensive and medical care is basically free in most countries. Good luck!