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Radio War Nerd EP #586 — Air Power & The Escalation Trap, feat. Robert Pape (Patreon)

Published:
2026-03-04 04:37:08
Imported:
2026-03
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Guest: Robert PapeRecorded: March 3, 2026

We talk to air war expert Robert Pape about the strategic failures of air wars in the age of precision weapons, the escalation trap the failure presents, and how it relates to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Subscribe to Prof. Pape's substack, Escalation Trap.Buy his book Bombing To Win: Air Power & Coercion in WarFollow Prof. Pape on Twitter.

Total time: 1:01:09Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Buy & review John Dolan's new book, They Should Have Been Hanged: War Nerd Essays on the U.S. Civil War

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

NYCM&AHole

I heard Iran bagged another today and they’re getting radar lock on F35s. I wonder when Iran is gonna put a couple missile destroyers at the bottom of the sea

Carter Adams

I don’t understand what they think makes the Iranian government an order of magnitude weaker than Assad was? Assad held on by a thread and a prayer for a decade of bombing and intense pressure from irregular forces below. A state I have always assumed to be much stronger and much more secure is going to fall in a couple of months? I appreciate this analysis a lot. It just seems so obvious that this isn’t going to achieve its goals unless we send in the Marines. Maybe we’ll do that, but I don’t think the US political environment supports it.

David Andrews

You guys always get great guests. I suppose you'll be very busy over the next few weeks.

Karl Childers

that was an extroardinary interview; this guy has a really comprehensive approach to thinking about strategy & he's an incredibly clear communicator, i gotta check out his writing

Swamp Music Players

Appreciate the effort y'all are putting into the show , including guests from another perspective.

NYCM&AHole

Why did you just credulously accept the claim that Iran had anything to do with attempts in Trump’s life? More of that kind of gullibility and you’ll be telling me Iran is days away from having a nuke.

Aiden

Thanks

Nicoo Güntner

Really good interview. The guest seems very knowledgeable and ill definitely check out his writing. It was very grating to hear someone refer to adversaries of the US empire as "The bad guys" and claiming that post revolution iran was much worse than under the Shah is just preposterous. Or pretending that there is any validity to the idea that iran is planning to kill trump (and therefore its good trump is hostile to south america bc theres iranians in mexico?) rather than that being something he made up whole cloth to warmonger/grift/make himself important in the media etc Especially from someone that according to himself had "adviced every US administration since 9/11" on military matters and therefore is, if not directly involved in war crimes and the immiseration of millions, certainly worked very closely with war criminals. I get that Mark and John don't want to drive off potential guests by being overly hostile but I would have liked a little bit more pushback I feel like Danny and Derek from American Prestige often get a good balance of disagreeing with the guest while still keeping the conversation going (not always but usually)

Pat

Legitimately very interesting guest. It is remarkable to me to have such a robust knowledge of the US imperial military strategy, its hubris and duplicity, and yet still think it’s a cause worthy of advising and at least tacitly supporting

Jacob Bucci

American Exception does a good job of this too, his interviews with people who know the machine from the inside are always enlightening. Larry Wilkerson said we’d be at war with Iran by Xmas like a year ago, he wasn’t far off.

JoR

They almost never, or maybe literally never, push back with guests lol. There was like one time with Blumenthal, on the episode where he talked about resistance groups, and he claimed IRA didn’t “win” because they didn’t meet their stated goals and John pushed back lightly.

Mac

Im sorry did this supposedly "serious" guest insinuate that Iran snuck terrorists over the border with the help of the Mexican "Cartels". This guy watched the shitty Sicario sequel and confused that for reality. Oh my god, he just brought up dirty bombs, they dont work as a radiological weapon. This guy needs to stop watching movies.

Rhys Hayes

The guest was clearly using 'the bad guys' as an invocation of the US military's perspective when planning the war. And he talked about Iran being better under Mossadegh, not the Shah - the Shah being overthrown by the Islamic Revolution was referenced as an example of regime change leading to an unexpectedly worse, more extreme outcome.

Rhys Hayes

That absolutely flew by, great interview. I appreciated the guest's efforts to offer the likely strategic war-planning perspectives of both sides

William

Tactical success, strategic failure

William

Get this man on for more shows- there is a depth of knowledge about every conflict since desert storm that is begging to be recorded

Karl Childers

not defending his natsec chauvinist worldview but what do you mean dirty bombs don't work as radiological weapons? seems pretty straightforward that if you spread radioactive material over an area it will harm people in that area, what am i missing?

Alex

Great guest and enlightening episode. I can’t help but notice a dearth of information coming out in our media about this massively consequential event either. Perhaps another sign things aren’t going exactly “to plan”? I am also interested in seeing how the princedoms around the gulf react to these events as well. It’s not just helping Israel, but considering reports that US troops fled the bases to local civilian hotel rooms and all of our anti missile defenses are being used to protect Israel, it begs to question what kind of bargain these guys really signed up for.

William

Not to be one of those “avengers assemble” ass commenters, but I wonder what a desert storm collaboration with Prof. Pape and Col. Wilkerson would look like

Karl Childers

i agree with your assessment of the guest's morality (or lack thereof) but i'm not sure what arguing with him would have accomplished; personally i'm glad they kept the interview focused and made the most of the hour they had

Harvey

Such a great interview, thanks

Karl Childers

i have tactically locked 100% of my keys in my car

Mac

Right, so a dirty bomb is just a bomb that has some radiological material strapped to it, it blows up and showers an area in uranium dust or other material. Obviously this stuff isn't good to be around but its more cancer in 10 years rather than skin falling as you walk away. The blast is far more dangerous combined with the panic a dirty bomb would cause. The actual quantity of radioactive material you would be exposed to is pretty marginal, and it would be over a very localized area.

Lee

I think the IRA, Rojava and Matt Taibbi might be the only topics that can get the guys’ hackles up enough to really go after a guest

Jason Thompson

I love y’all but I have to ask, guys… are aircraft carriers actually better defended than you’ve said they are over the years? Does the USA’s missile interception technology make up for them being huge floating targets?

Jack

It's the academic type! Like the moment when he thinks he's introducing Foucault to the war nerds: I've seen that exact scene play out with other academics. He seems knowledgeable, just constrained.

Doug Cartel

The point of gutting international terrorism intelligence is because trump wants to focus on hunting American thought-criminals. The only schism in MAGA is the one between people who want trump to bomb Iran and the ones that want trump to bomb Michigan.

Karl Childers

still seems valid as a terror weapon or basically long term area denial for civilians? i don't think it would require all that much radiation to force an evacuation of a population center; if the area affected is economically important then the strategic effect could be significant.

Mac

Its definitely a valid terror weapon, but the quantity of radiological material needed to function as areal denial is completely impractical. Its been a constant boogeyman of the less informed public but theres a reason no government has ever developed one they just dont work very well.

Seraj Farabi-Iverson

I think this falls more into the category of “do you want to escalate to the point where you sink a small city”

NYCM&AHole

Yeah well they should’ve said something about there being absolutely zero public evidence to back those claims. It’s about as credible as the FBI entrapment terror plots where the fbi is completely in control the entire time

Karl Childers

word, thank you for spelling that out, much appreciated

Mac

Of course, always fun to engage in some pedantic war nerdery

Shane

Great episode. Robert Pape is a legend (for people who say things like Robert Pape is a legend). His book “dying to win: the strategic logic of suicide terrorism” is also a great read. IdPol warriors in the comments: unfortunately right-wing war nerds are sometimes (rarely) on the money! His framework holds, forget the rest.

Jonathan Penn

Excellent interview and a very helpful addition to what will certainly be a series on this war. Perhaps the next War Nerd book will be entitled, "Trump's Folly or Why Children Are Not Allowed to Play With Matches," or "Idiots, Anvils, and Explosives." Napoleon is supposed to have said, "You can do many things with a bayonet, except sit on one." Replace "bayonet" with --air power-- and the quote still works.

Xander Udo

Loved the episode! Realky good. You briefly talked about Iran not deploying terrorism like they migjt have done in the 80s. But wouldn't that destroy the advantage that the have with regards to the domestic politics dimension in the US and Israel? In think the guest stated that as one of the factors for iran as well. Also international sympathy for Iran would take a massive hit i should think

Alef Khoury

The poem (loosely defined) that's been sticking in my head all week, given the news, is from Paul Simon's "Gumboots" (Rhythm of the Saints, 1986): "Believing I had supernatural powers, I slammed into a brick wall / I said, 'Hey, is this my problem? Is this my fault?'"

John Waaben

Honestly this is the best case for an interview that the “audience” may disagree with “ideologically”

Shane

*ahem* it FLEW by

Professor Jokes

So you just let him blow smoke unchallenged at minute 53 huh?

Professor Jokes

Entirely unchallenged, these guys always get weird at crucial times

William

What did you want to challenge him on

Gergely Gáli

You should do a series on the Kosovo War(maybe a co-production with tenepod?), there are so many lies still in circulation about it and is extremely relevant for so many things happening right now

Brendan Shanahan

Kind of unbelievable to suggest that Iran is the actor likeliest to push the nuclear button, and would do so to target… Riyadh? Good interview overall but this guy is as blinkered by his proximity to the US state as anyone he presumes to criticize.

Terry Dunk

That Kash Patel and the FBI were indeed foiling Iranian plots on Trump's life rather than lying to drum up support for war / burnish their own image as they've done countless times in the past

No

Khamenei was 86, dying of cancer, and got to go out like Imam Husayn for his people. I don't get why him staying at his home is such a mystery for people

No

I agree that Wright is one of the great hit and miss poets. "I have wasted my life" is so brilliant because he leaves it completely ambiguous if its meant in a positive or negative sense. It just kind of hangs there beautifully

No

6000 soldiers on one of those things and you can ride a bike faster than it moves. I think they could hit it but theres a chance trump would go nuclear if it happened

CR

Even with the killing of that one cartel leader, I will automatically dismiss as atomically and unremittingly braindead anyone who suggests terrorists will or could cross the Mexican border. The biggest security factor keeping terrorists from using the border is the combined might and paranoia of the cartels themselves. No group has more to lose than the cartels if anyone ever got through and it’s not even close. So, fuck all that noise. Until we go to war with them for real, they will keep anyone out better than DHS etc. ever could.

CR

Foucault got fisted by reality, among others, in Iran.

Baron

I thought he meant that in a future tense, not past tense?

Kawaii Leonard

great ep. I do think there’s way too many “regimes” dropping on this though. It’s tine to listen to Iranians, like your past guest. A “regime” is a government that’s in our targets

Vincent

Wild to be literate enough to write and book and still stupid enough to believe that there were totally Iranian assassination attempts that just aren't giving the details on. He should have said that at the start of the interview and saved me an hour.

JoR

With his family though? His wife and a 2 year old granddaughter (if true)

Jason Thompson

Considering what the USA is already doing to Iran, I can’t believe Iran wouldnt take down an aircraft carrier if they could. The US only understands force after all. I can only assume these carriers are protected by their size (you would need a missile not a drone I imagine) and by a wall of money (in the form of lots of interceptors and counter-drones)

William

What do you imagine that would accomplish

William

This guest is kind of like macgregor; good on Russia, horrible on everything else

William

So if that 3-5 min segment was cut out, you would have thought this was a good interview? Wild

Vincent

Well, I just said that, had the stupid and naive statement been upfront, I would have realized that early and saved an hour, implying the episode was a waste of an hour. So, you tell me. Did I think it was a good episode?

ExtraJudicial Pod

Always kind of annoying you know Mark and John familiarise themselves with a guest's work and the guest doesn't know RWN audience at all

Karl Childers

tbh that's probably a good thing; if he knew his audience would be a bunch of anti-imperialist malcontents he may not have taken the interview

Louis Wilkins

Im not an expert but a us aircraft carrier group has multiple layers of defence against incoming missiles. Not to mention an entire couple of air wings to extend beyond that. From what I understand it’s possible to hit them with the top tier anti ship missiles but very difficult and would probably require a massive outlay of drones or missiles just to saturate the defences. Iran absolutely would if they could in my opinion but it’s just not an efficient allocation of resources. They probably wouldn’t succeed unless they had the very best Chinese missiles and even then…

Karl Childers

two thoughts: one, iran wants to preserve options both for their own force escalation and for US de-escalation. sinking a carrier in the first week shrinks the range of both options considerably. two, imagine the reputational cost / optics of launching a huge expensive salvo against a carrier group and whiffing. and even if they score good hits they'd be exposing their best missiles to american sensors and revealing information which could then be used to refine US intercept tactics thus potentially limiting efficacy in the future. tl;dr i suspect it's an option they're holding in their back pocket and won't use unless either they get desperate and/or circumstances allow them a near guaranteed kill shot.

Inmybirkin

Cyrus ep or Ashlar needed

Chris Mo

I don't understand people getting upset by this guest - the old adage of perfect being the enemy of good is in full view here.

Jimmy B

Good insight here, though I consider the Professor to be much more on the “bad guy” side compared to the countries and regimes that he considers to be bad.

Max

Politics is always a tricky thing for a war nerd because in addition to war being evil, we’re also doing it wrong.

Sneb

Fantastic episode. Please have this guy on again.

John Miller

I know everybody pissed off at US war state right now, but the show is called radio war nerd, not radio anti-imperialism. They interview people inside the system regularly

Matt McCartney

Those sleeper cells have been sleeping since Reagan. Somebody might want to go and check on them.

Ian H

I dunno man, I kinda doubt a serious academic is using "will I be criticized in the subscribers-only comment thread?" as their metric for doing an interview. I think Annibale might be the only guest who reads this at all.

John

Agree.

ExtraJudicial Pod

Not so much the comments just the pedantic Foucault remarks had me rolling my eyes

John

Yeh that was kind if weird. Plus was he implying the iranian regime sent over all the terrorists before trump got elected ? Seems retarded if so. But the interview was still solid imo.

Miko

There's also the fact that the US tries to keep them out of missile range, whatever that is, for the country in question. They underestimated the houthi's, got too close, and had some near misses that required some pretty dramatic evasive maneuvers. I think that's what caused one or more fighters to "fall off" the carrier. For it's size a carrier can actually haul ass in a suprising way. I don't want to contemplate how far the deck pitched on a turn for a plane to fall off. I think for Iran they're keeping them so far away as to practically not be in the fight.

Miko

WAPO fired all their ME correspondents a week or two prior. Oops. I think the US media has fired and closed so many of their foreign offices that they're effectively relying on the BBC and twitter randos for foreign coverage at this point. They're at the point of covering events live from....Arlington, Virginia.

drizzly_november

I’d love to hear what Annibale has to say about the air war in WWII. My understanding is that the current historical consensus is that strategic bombing had mixed results, and was proven to have the opposite effect on German morale than was once thought.

EaZy E

Yeah. I mean, you have to go to the source, and a a viewer, its always your responsibility to consider a fuller context. At the end of the day, the only question is, does this person have legitimacy and integrity in terms of the message they convey.

Sam

Wish this guy would Foucault off. Good interview all the same. His perspective on air power is correct and interesting. Shame that all of the presidents and military personnel he’s apparently advised don’t seem to listen to him.

Sam

Interesting point at the end about the tilt of the gulf states and the instability within them. Instead of using the IRGC to attack the US through Mexico, they are probably much better placed to be used in the gulf states to sew unrest there. Those states are what are really up for grabs in this war long term. Will their populations of migrant workers remain dormant for the duration of this conflict? I’m not so sure.

Toshio42

Probably should wait to see how the "shahad drone vs. patriot missle" situation plays out before worrying about uranium and suicide vests.

nick

Great interview. Imo, ignore the misguided people getting unnecessarily upset about how the guests worldview doesnt align perfectly with theirs.

Alec Rosekrans

Foucault rolling in his grave being called a liberal

drizzly_november

I’m a little surprised at those comments, over the years Mark and John have had great conversations with subject-matter experts they might not necessarily always agree with on everything.

JDF

This rocks

JDF

My name is Curtis LeMay and I’m openly woke

JDF

1968-73 Vietnam was a sterling example of air power deployed in victory ( not GVN tho)

Boobs123

It's pretty normal for listeners to spaz out at guests for not using the right shibboleths.

Carter Adams

Trump would use a nuclear weapon

Carter Adams

Academics are the most thin skinned tribe of people on the planet.

Carter Adams

The single best episode (1979) was with someone half stupid too.

Hans Anders

The man would best stick to air power

John Waaben

I’ve been thinking the same thing

John

James Wright on Harding made me think of American Mercury--Mencken and Nathan moved over to it after getting fired from The Smart Set for wanting to publish a satirical column after the president died, apparently they felt he was being treated too reverentially in death.

brrrskrrrt

THERE'S A LIBERAL CALLED FOUCAULT LMFAO

brrrskrrrt

enjoying the interview a lot, but had to pause it as my sides were starting to hurt too much after I heard that it's sort of endearing in a 'this is what Europeans imagine cowboys are like'-sort of way great guest and great respectful poker faces throughout the interview Mark and John

teh_drewski

I did chuckle at the way he phrased that but I sort of interpreted it as having air quotes as in that's the conflict framing. Although I'm sure, given his institutional status, that he does consider the empire to be the good guys generally, which of course doesn't invalidate his assessment of air power's effectiveness.

SB

What would the tiny Marine Corp do in the 90m country?

SB

There's a big difference between smart/knowledgeable and wise. This guy is a great illustration of academic smugness with zero introspection.

SB

Westerners have a hard time believing that not everyone is terrified of dying. In other cultures/religions the concept of fate and its acceptance is very widespread.

parker

Tbf there are definitely circles and instances where he can be called a liberal. It's just definitely not the American conception of liberalism. Or even the modern day European sensibility regarding it. His entire ideological bend just doesn't really exist anymore but hey that's not anything to do with him. Not his fault Europe is basically doing hitlers plan for unity and America has decided that Reagan was too woke

Caladan Kid

It seems to me the only lesson the US learned from the Gulf War is that they need to control domestic morale through propaganda (and possibly, control of elections) rather than any sort of tactical or strategic change. Effectively controlling the repercussions from ‘the long game’ talked about in this episode

Smallbusinessman

The part at the end about Iran doing "international terrorism" just oof. What a chud.

JoR

Only thing is, are they even trying with the propaganda war anymore? With Venezuela and Iran they are barely even going out of their way to justify or explain strategy, even by US empire standards haha .

SparkSolidarity

Leftists who say perfect is the enemy of good are also the ones who say the iranian revolution is a fascist theocracy. So, yeah.

Noah

“Imagine if Iran sprinkled some uranium onto drones going to Riyadh.” He need not imagine, American using depleted Uranium munitions in BOTH gulf wars?

Karl Childers

accusation = confession, imperial ideology is a mental illness, straight up freudian repression & projection. bet you he can't even comprehend the irony cuz if he did then the cognitive dissonance might kill him.

Tariq

He’s an ass. I overall appreciated the interview but this guy sucks and his continuous humble brags about being involved with the evilest people on earth were nauseating.

Michael Salmon

It’s good to get people on the show who know their shit, even if they have annoying politics

Mark Ames

great song, stood out on their otherwise weakest album

parker

It's mixed mainly because Germany didn't fully mobilize the economy until 1943 after they had well lost. More damage had been done to the German economy by the Nazis than the bombs. If the Germans hadn't mismanaged the economy to the degree they did it would be easier to determine if the strategic bombing was doing the damage it needed to however German industry was arguably in shambles

OutofBeerRage

I admire Marks enduring fondness for Naipaul

nick

Which episode number? Ive pretty much listened to every episode, but I don't remember that one

Joe McNiff

Couldn’t tell you how many times I was assigned to read Professor Pape during my IS undergrad days. Great episode.