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Guest: Sabrina, security & conflict analystRecorded: April 9, 2026

We talk to Pakistani analyst Sabrina about Pakistan's relations with Iran and its role as mediator, Pakistan's recent war with the Taliban in Afghanistan, its conflict last year with India, Trump's favorite field marshal, shitposting & more.

Further listening:-EP #168: Balochistan Insurgencies w/TheseLongWars-EP #143 - Election of Imran Khan w/TheseLongWars -EP #426 - The Plot Against Imran Khan w/Ryan Grim

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Total time: 1:41:54Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

Don Tickles

Do any of us understand why guests are often only referred to by their first names?

Kamran Husain

other countries have libel laws that benefit the upper class more vehemently online

GC

they want some measure of anonymity, I think [RWN may not be a great professional association in some circles, although @Kamran Husain's point is also well taken]

Kamran Husain

GC’s point is more valid for western based people

Matt McCartney

Good timing. I've been wondering how Pakistan fits into the politics of the Gulf States and the current Iran war.

Ander Pierce

Pakistan's commitment to peace here has been inspirational, curious to see how/if China responds to their assets in Iran being directly targeted by Israel

Ander Pierce

I need to see if I can get my wife to call me Field Marshall Chief of the Defense Forces General Guy

JJ

Was War Nerd referring to General Kiyani the chief of staff at one point or to Hamid Gul the retired ISI chief who became very outspoken in his pro taliban and anti USA views?

Henry Ermer

Awesome episode! Please do more on Pakistan. I don't know how or if it would be possible but having Antonio giustozzi on would be sick

Alex

Fabulous guest - please have her back on! Really enjoyed her final comments/synthesis re Gaza and the US... fwiw as a US citizen, totally agree with her.

jonnie

Great guest

Shane

Wow, what a great episode and guest. I hope you have Sabrina on again. I wish I could read more from her. A series on Karachi and/or Pakistan deep politics would be incredible.

AJ

I appreciated Sabrina’s perspective. She presents a relatively balanced view of Pakistan, something that can sometimes be difficult to find in discussions that are often dominated by strong national narratives from multiple sides, including Indian voices. A few key points from the episode that stood out to me: Pakistan often had more successes than failures in its outcomes across its conflicts with India. 1948: Ended in a ceasefire, with Pakistan retaining roughly one-third of Kashmir despite being a newly formed state with limited access to its allotted military resources after partition. 1965: Resulted in a ceasefire without decisive territorial change. PAF dominance established. 1971: A complex conflict involving internal insurgency in East Pakistan and eventual large-scale Indian military intervention. Pakistan’s forces were stretched thin, reflecting both internal and external pressures. Pakistan’s army's actual strength in East Pakistan was around 50k, and the rest were civilians, i.e., federal workers, family members, etc., 5x as many insurgents and Indian military. West Front fought well without incurring many losses. 1999 (Kargil): Pakistan withdrew following international, particularly strong U.S., pressure. 2019 (Operation Swift Retort): Pakistan demonstrated its air capabilities in a limited engagement following escalations with India. 2025 (Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos): Overwhelmingly dominant air performance and strikes across many Indian bases. Indians resorting to launching hypersonic missiles as their air force faltered. On a different note, regarding perceptions within some U.S. political circles: A politically active acquaintance of mine (sharing his perspective, not necessarily my own) described tensions with segments of the Indian diaspora as tied to workplace dynamics, perceived exclusivity, and competitive positioning in industries like tech. He also emphasized that movements like MAGA are not entirely uniform or “black and white” in their views; there are different motivations and internal contradictions. One critique he raised is that some individuals advocate for more restrictive immigration policies while having personally benefited from immigration pathways, which can be perceived as inconsistent. At the same time, broader political movements such as MAGA do include elements of general anti-immigrant sentiment that affect multiple communities, not just one group. It’s also worth noting that some Indian-American public figures, such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Kash Patel, Dinesh D'souza, Priay Patel, and Bobby Jindal, have run on more conservative platforms and have, at times, faced criticism for how they position themselves on identity and minority issues. That dynamic adds another layer to how these perceptions develop. Overall, I thought the episode did a good job highlighting the complexity of Pakistan’s regional role and the importance of hearing perspectives that go beyond simplified narratives.

AJ

Hamid Gul. Gen Kiyani wasn't anti-US as he had to work with them.

Alec

My brain autocompleted to Sabrina Carpenter

Kawaii Leonard

You guys are killing it! Thank you Sabrina!

Kawaii Leonard

surely you understand that people have reasons for anonymity when discussing geopolitics. Peter Kororaev used a pseudonym until he was able to get out of Ukraine

Brendan Garcia

My friend at work calls the telephone game “Banana Phone,” but they don’t even know where they got that from. I really like that though.

Jeff Grey

I have a pet theory that the intensity of the anti-Indian racism right now may have to do with the scam call centers and how common scam calls/texts/etc. are these days. I don't know how much of this stuff actually comes from India, as it's become pretty common across the 3rd world, but there's a public perception that much the organized scammer activity has a source there. Racism and hate can be that much stronger when a person feels they have a justification or a grudge they can hold onto related to it, and I bet that if you pressed most of these young right-wing nerds, they probably never even interact with a black person or a Jewish person. Meanwhile, everyone is getting tons of scam phone calls per day, or has an elderly relative who had their bank account drained, and they've all seen the DO NOT REDEEM youtube video.

JoR

I feel like that’s giving them too much credit lol. This is anecdotal but when I was a kid peoples “gripes” with Indians aren’t that they were scammers, it was that they were “all the call center agents when I call for support”. And “they have horrible accents” and “no your name isn’t JENNIFER, LADY!”. Like yes what you’re saying may contribute to a tiny degree but it doesn’t even begin to account for the vitriol and pure hatred a ton of conservative Americans have for Indians & Indian Americans

JoR

Everything you guys said about the pure hatred maga has for Indians is spot on, unfortunately. Probably outside of maga and conservative circles too. One thing that seems to matter a lot for that crowd is the “non abrahamic religion” factor. Granted, most maga are only “religious “ in the sense that they cling to it as identity. But for them Hinduism, or any Indian religion, is even worse than Islam, which they also hate, of course. But I think it “reinforces” their hate for Indians because they practice a religion that has absolutely 0 context within our own culture, if that makes sense.

JoR

Very slight disagreement with mark on why trump may be humiliating modi. I don’t think it’s for his base, because the people who truly hate Indians had a mini mutiny when the White House had a small Diwali celebration post. Granted, mutiny as in “bitch about it on social media”. But there’s a lot of that general sentiment online that “Trump is betraying us because he’s an Indian lover”. Kash running fbi. The H1B back and forth (this probably posses off maga base more then Israel stuff). So, idk if him mocking modi would even resonate with his base, because I dunno if it would hit home the same way. I just assume it’s some personal beef he has with him

Connor Zaft

Seconded, would love a deeper dive into the inner workings of Karachi with her.

Amit Bhaumik

You guys have a great and growing series on Pakistan that makes for excellent listening even years later. I dove in to the older episodes last year and am surprised how many current events since then keep touching those topics. I would love to hear an episode on general Zia to add to the list. One of the most consequential figures of recent decades yet there isn't a lot of scholarship on him.

NewTooshFatoosh

Ooo man you all really got her stuttering when bringing up Khan. We all know that was a coup.

Cameron Young

I truly do believe that 70% of the Trump admin is fucking winging it and JD could have taken this Iranian deal either way. Accept and move on or just sabotage ala Vietnam and nixon/kissinger.

AJ

Let’s be real, the hate isn’t new. It’s always been there. As a Pakistani, it gets tiring hearing people lump all South Asians together as “Indian.” Minus the folks that crossed over during partition, 97% of Indians are not relatable to Pakistanis genetically, culturally, linguistically, socially. Indians deliberately shift the narrative that India means South Asia based off living under the British India “prison.” Most people can tell the difference between Pakistanis and Indians, so that excuse that “everyone sees you the same” is a cop-out. There’s a clear distinction, and the behavior doesn’t help, Indians often come off arrogant, with a chip on their shoulder trying to be accepted as equals to Westerners while simultaneously degrading Muslims and other groups. And honestly, some of the behavior stands out in a way that’s hard to ignore. The lack of civic sense you see in Indian immigrant pockets makes them noticeable. Pakistanis don’t really have that same issue to the same extent, most of the community here is already second or third generation, and newer arrivals tend to be more upper-middle class and generally better adjusted. Meanwhile, Indian immigration pulls from a much wider cross-section of society, and that difference shows. The shift really accelerated when large-scale Indian immigration to Canada and the U.S. took off, far outpacing Pakistani immigration. I’m not advocating hate toward anyone, but I’ve watched Indians jump on the anti-Pakistani wave post-9/11 to position themselves as more “white-adjacent.” They leaned into conservative, right-wing narratives, especially targeting Muslims; Pakistanis in particular, thinking it would elevate their status. Now that the spotlight has shifted onto them, suddenly it’s “we’re all South Asian” or “we’re all brown.” That switch-up is hard to ignore. I take personal issue with that inconsistency. And yeah, I get that this might be tough for the War Nerd audience to hear, especially given where they lean politically, but it is what it is.

AJ

It wasn’t a coup. Just normal Pakistani politics. I for one am glad he’s gone. I was a staunch fan of his but the egomaniac and incompetency, and shooting from the hip didn’t help Pakistan’s case.

manInNewYork

I would like to push back a bit on this. Regarding Imran Khan : I don't know and I am not going to comment on how good or bad a prime minister he has been. As the guest mentions, he was groomed and chosen by the military and he has stated publicly on TV that most major policy decisions were taken by the military itself. If he was so unpopular himself, why has he been arrested and jailed for such a long time. UPDATE : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Pakistani_general_election Does the 2024 Pakistan election read like Imran Khan would have lost it as the guest mentioned? Her soft endorsement of military's decision doesn't sit right with me. Regarding the bombing of hospital in Kabul by Pakistan : While she condemns it, she also goes out of her way to say that it was surrounded by military targets - sounds a lot like how Israel keeps bombing civilians targets and says there was hamas under it. Overall, I wish Mark and the War nerd had pushed back a little on this.

JoR

Respectfully if you are in America and you’re dealing with a white (or even a non white) American, I can beg good Money they would not be able to differentiate a Pakistani from an Indian. This is especially true for those who are extremely prejudiced towards “Indians”. Like even if the distinctions you write are true, do you really think the average hate an Indian or Pakistani faced in the US is that nuanced

JoR

Really? She didn’t really seem to waver on anything when that was bought up. She obviously has her own politics but considering how openly she discusses Pakistani politics, it’s not like even if he was thrown out a coup, that’s abnormal

AJ

I’m a proud American of Pakistani descent I get what you’re saying, but that’s kind of missing my point. I’m not arguing that the average American can perfectly differentiate in every situation—obviously not. But this idea that “everyone just sees you the same” gets overstated and used as a blanket excuse, and I don’t buy that. People pick up on differences over time, behavior, communication style, social patterns, even how communities carry themselves. It’s not just about appearance. And more importantly, a lot of what I’m talking about isn’t even coming from random Americans, it’s from how Indians and Pakistanis interact with each other and how Indians have positioned themselves socially and politically, especially post-9/11. And let’s not act like Westerners are simple or clueless. I’ve worked in a white collar and blue collar environment, where you’ve got people from all backgrounds, and they’re not “country bumpkins.” They observe patterns, they notice behavior, and over time they absolutely differentiate, even if they don’t say it outright. That’s where my issue is. There was a very real period where Indians leaned into anti-Pakistani and anti-Muslim sentiment to get ahead socially, playing into “we’re not them” narratives. Now that the spotlight has shifted, suddenly it’s “we’re all South Asian” or “we’re all brown.” I’m already seeing this turn into Indians trying to lump Pakistanis in with them now that the heat is on, when before it was “we’re not the same, they’re terrorists.” That switch-up is what I’m calling out. So yeah, maybe someone at first glance lumps things together, but that doesn’t erase the distinctions, and it definitely doesn’t erase the behavior that led to this dynamic in the first place.

AG

Shout out to Sugarland, TX. I'm in the next town over. There are a ton of Pakistanis and Indians here for sure. I havent learned how to tell the difference personally. I am going to start paying attention more.

Genghis Cohen

She was such a pleasant and well informed guest. Please have her back on!

Xander Udo

Last fall, during the Asia cup, Pakistan and India played a couple of heated cricket matches against each other. Pakistani pkayer Rauf made a "pkane shoot down" gesture towards the Indian fans, which i thought was remarkable https://youtu.be/IaHZN6EhAIw?si=mdC7nxD9X3sb60OD

Xander Udo

Also, this came up in a conversation I had with a few Indian and Dutch-Indian guys. They got really testy, saying "Pakistan only won in social media, not in real life" And i found this to be uncharacteristic, I've played with many Pakistani and Indian guys, in mixed teams as well. It has never been unfriendly. Anway, great guest and episode!

AJ

I’m good, don’t need a non-Pakistani explaining to me who and what I am or should be

parker

I will point Pakistan does not nearly bomb as much as Israel. The reality is that can be more realistic of a situation as I don't think in that situation it was a double tap or system based. Isreal and the us infamously double tap hospitals and go after rescue workers. Not saying bombing a hospital is good just pointing out it's more par for the course in terms of pretty garrish military violence rather than the ultra violent almost gleeful targeting of civilians the us and Israel has done. Basically Pakistan probably did intend for the missile to hit a military target and there's not a lot of evidence otherwise however there is massive evidence that the us government intentionally mass murders civilians in order to engage in regime change.

Annibale

This is one of the best RWN episodes ever

Renee Drezner

Top tier RWN. Especially appreciate the discussion of Baluchistan and the Hazara.