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Guest: AnnibaleRecorded: August 18, 2026

Annibale launches his series on the two wars fought between Finland and the Soviet Union during World War II: the Winter War (1939-1940), which covered underdog Finland in glory; and Finland's Nazi-allied war on the Soviet Union (1941-45), which has been buried and obfuscated under the misleading "Continuation War" designation. We also discuss America's nuclear bunker busters - B61-11/12/13s - and what might happen if Trump should use them.

First - we discuss nuclear bunker bustersAt 48:55 - Music interlude by Brendon Anderegg. Check out music from his group Mountains hereAt 51:15 - Annibale introduces the Soviet-Finnish Wars

Annibale's Bibliography

Tiina Kinnunen and Ville Kivimäki (eds.), Finland in World War II: History, Memory, Interpretations (Leiden: Brill, 2012). The standard English-language reference on the subject: twenty-odd specialists covering the military and political narrative, the home front, and the way Finns have remembered the war since 1945. Kivimäki's opening essay, "Three Wars and Their Epitaphs", is the single best short introduction to how the scholarship has changed. 

Kimmo Rentola, How Finland Survived Stalin: From Winter War to Cold War, 1939–1950 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2023). Rentola worked in the FSB, the Russian Foreign Ministry, and the former Communist Party archives. He argues that the 1939 invasion followed not from an intelligence failure but from a political misjudgment, as Stalin expected a rapid collapse and a change of regime, not a war. Most useful recent account of the Soviet side. 

Olli Vehviläinen, Finland in the Second World War: Between Germany and Russia (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002). The clearest English treatment of how Finland moved from the Soviet sphere to the German one between 1940 and 1941, and of what "co-belligerent" actually meant in practice. Useful for understanding why historians no longer accept the post-war claim that Finland fought a war entirely separate from Germany's.

Antti Kujala, "Illegal Killing of Soviet Prisoners of War by Finns during the Finno-Soviet Continuation War of 1941–44", The Slavonic and East European Review 87, no. 3 (2009): 429–451. Reconstructed from the records of trials held in Finland between 1945 and 1949. Kujala's work established that roughly a third of the Soviet prisoners taken by Finland died in captivity, most of them in a single winter, and that around 1,200 were shot outside any legal procedure.

Oula Silvennoinen, "Periphery of a Genocide: Finland and the Holocaust", Holocaust and Genocide Studies 37, no. 2 (2023): 312–330. Open access. The best current synthesis, and the source for much of what the episode says on this subject: the treatment of Jewish refugees who were not Finnish citizens, the twelve handed to the German security police between 1941 and 1942, and the cooperation between Finnish and German security services. Silvennoinen is also the historian who uncovered the existence of Einsatzkommando Finnland.

*Also freely available and worth knowing about: Lars Westerlund's The Finnish SS-Volunteers and Atrocities against Jews, Civilians and Prisoners of War in Ukraine and the Caucasus Region 1941–1943 (National Archives of Finland, 2019), the official report commissioned by the Finnish government, downloadable from kansallisarkisto.fi.

Total time: 1:41:47Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

William

he caNT KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS

Michael Conlin-Elsen

I kannt wait to hear about some plikki dinkki war crimes and a cozy finnish seige of leningrad!

Hugh Jazz

Annibale doing another WW2 series? Are we even worthy?

DeadPrince

The first part of this episode is why I love RWN and why I hate living in this century.

EnKaff

I'll say it again and again but rebranding "The Nazi Collaboration War" as "The Continuation War" is superb PR sleight of hand.

Sam Zeng

Ummm based???

Yairo Martis

Oh, those Nutsy Co-Belligerents!

Yairo Martis

In Finland the Whites won the Russian Civil War. That's your first alarm bell. Then you have their swastika emblem, and of course they participated in Barbarossa and the siege/genocide of Petrograd. *Leningrad jesus

Winston Reid

You guys should try and get David Glantz on. I saw an interview he did with a tiny tabletop war gaming channel on YouTube, he said he’s always open to interviews. Edit: with annibale of course

Rick from the sandhills

The 30s-40s Finns are up there with Rhodesia in terms of misplaced valorization by those with a very cursory knowledge of the subject.

jg

ANNIBALE! LFG

Daryl Crow

“Babe, wake up, RWN’s got Annibale on! They’re talking about Stalin!”

Jimothy Realname

"Personal relationship with Hitler" is a really funny phrase to me. Like Volkische protestantism

JJ

Is the Swedish reputation for changing sides referenced in the show something that starts from their King Bernadotte the former Marshal of Napoleon switching to the Coalition against his former patron after the latter started losing?

Kyle Erickson

This calumny against the Swedes will not stand

Damnboooi

It would be great to have a similar episode diving deep in Romania in the interwar period/WW2… after Germany and Italy it contributed the largest army to the Axis alliance but I havent been able to find a good compelling history that covers this period in English

rocksalmon

is Minnesota on its way to defend the good name?

Larry Dimes

The bunker buster nukes are primarily about deterring China if I recall. Unlike the US/NATO and even the Russians, China took and still takes civil/military nuclear defense very seriously. They have a vast bunker infrastructure to be used in the event of a nuclear war. As someone who has spent far too many years of my life studying nuclear physics, Annibale is right of course. Most of the knowledge needed to design and build new nuclear weapons is lost. Unlike what movies will tell you, nukes can't just sit on a shelf for a few decades and be dropped like an old firecracker, they need pretty intensive maintenance to the point of complete rebuilds after a while. Building new ones from clean sheet is very difficult if not impossible without some kind of experimental verification. Even the laser pumped fusion systems aren't really delivering the needed experimental data. Physics is tricky. I suspect, though I have no evidence for this, that some of the major powers have resumed or will soon resume extremely low yield testing (sub kiloton yield, underground) simply to gain the required data and experience to design and build new weapons.

Benke

Having hangups about finnish airforce roundel that predated the nazis is a telltale sign that you don't know what you're talking about.

Benke

Invasion of Poland with Germany and USSR was the first major Nazi Collaboration War. How fortunes change...

Benke

Good for Fins for carving the best deal possibile against impossible odds. Very admirable - standing up both to Hitler and Stalin but also willing to compromise.

Benke

And eeetler

Hugh Jazz

On the show yes but I also wish he recited my inner dialogue in my brain

Niklas Krogerus

I'm pretty sure Annibale is wrong about Mannerheim serving with the Kaiserjäger. I can't find any mention of it on wikipedia, plus it would have made him a turncoat, because he fought for Russia against Austria-Hungary until he was dismissed by the revolutionary government. I always heard him described as one of those tsarist officers Annibale mentioned as being predominant at that time. It's claimed that he kept a picture of Tsar Nicholas II in his office, and would affirm his love for his Emperor whenever asked about it.

Benke

Yeah, he served in Poland so he knew german, Polish, Russian, swedish and, funny enough, very little finnish.

EnKaff

Surely the first was Poland and Hungary taking chunks of Czechoslovakia alongside Germany?

Annibale

You're absolutely right, I misremembered - it's the other way round. The large part of the Finnish HQ was with the Germans, but ironically Mannerheim (who however spoke German) was with the Russian Empire. I will correct

Jason Thompson

Totally agree with Mark: antiwar and anti Israel Republicans feel like a total paper tiger. Whenever I Public-post about Gaza on FB I am swarmed with the usual GenX/Boomer Republican assholes still mad about 9/11 or the Beirut barracks bombing, and I never get a single Tucker Carlson or MTG style anti interventionist Republican. I would expect I would get at least *one* “this isnt in Americas interest” style Repub out of like 100+ comments on one post but zilch. These people seem to only exist on Twitter.

BotBuster

The roundel originated from the founder of the swedish national socialist party, who was close friends with and brother-in-law to Göring. In any case the criticism isn't that they originally adopted the symbol, rather that they failed to get rid of it.

CR

250 years and counting.

JK

There's nothing sympathetic whatsoever about the Finnish white/nationalist position: (1) The Bolsheviks gave Finland independence. Finland was an imperial subject *until* the Russian revolution, and got its independence *from* the Russian revolution. We know this wasn't rhetorical because the Finnish communists fought the civil war alone and without substantial assistance. The entire premise that Soviet positions on Finland represented a novel national oppression of Finns is prima facie absurd. (2) The wrong side won the civil war. The Whites were fascists and monarchists. No modern person should have any sympathy for their politics whatsoever. Were they less authoritarian than other Baltic Nazis? Sure, okay, who cares. They still supported Hitler's genocide-war against Eastern Europe. The were Nazis. (3) As Annibale points out: Nazi historical revisionists inside and outside Finland want to treat Soviet demands for a more secure border as irrational, paranoid, and aggressive. But we can prove this is wrong, too, *because* Nazi Finland attacked the USSR as part of the Nazi anti-Soviet war through this border.

CR

Before that

CR

So, The Simpsons was more correct with Sideshow Bob set one off.

John

Can we finally get an episode on Malaparte? His description of a sea of frozen horses outside of Leningrad will really stay with you.

Manic Exposure

Ah! Finally! In finland interwar period and alliance with nazi germany is complicated part of our social memory since winter war is somehow glue for our society on some level.

Manic Exposure

Just as an aside as i listen towards the end, i think a lot of finnish commies were ultimately purged by 1940 so perhaps soviet contact in finland might have been poor or stalin really did misjudge the conditions in finland.

Jonathan Penn

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is not intended to and not capable of replacing the plutonium implosion A-bomb trigger in thermonuclear weapons. The NIF is a huge facility covering acres, weighing millions of pounds, and requiring gigawatts of power to achieve brief fusion ignition in a pellet smaller than a grain of rice. Shrinking this technology to replace the current A bomb triggers, which are small, well understood, and readily manufactured, will require decades of improvement to the technology at all levels. It is not even on the table. As for a self-sealing penetrating nuclear weapon, I doubt anyone in the weapons industry believes this possible. The deepest penetration by existing weapons is significantly less than 100 meters. The channel that the weapon creates would act as a chimney flue for the nuclear blast wave. Even if you delay the explosion of the nuke to allow possible collapse of the channel dug by the penetrator, the material will be barely consolidated and shoot out of the hole readily. Even underground nuclear tests which use shafts of hundreds of meters and then side tunnels with backfilling have on occasion led to nuclear releases following the test. No one can seriously believe that dropping a nuclear penetrator will not release a huge cloud of fallout. Finally, nuclear weapons are enormously profitable to the small group of companies that design and manufacture them. Note the 1.6 trillion dollar price tag (and growing with every new report) just to modernize the USA's current nuclear forces. Between hiding funds in the Department of Energy's budget and other budget black holes, the profits (just the profits) from nukes in the US amount to hundreds of billions of dollars over the years. If it weren't profitable they wouldn't be doing it.

Kendall

The tonic for all ailments, be they spiritual, mental, or physical

William

Turn on the tv. Doesn’t matter which channel

Иноагент

I will never forget the finnish man who trapped me for hours in a conversation about the winter war that occured early morning in the streets of bangkok. That country will never see justice no matter how much they might deserve it.

Benke

Lol Stalin apologists never cease to amaze with mental gymnasics. Fact that Finland didnt had gulags, milions purged is reason enogh they were on the good side of the civil war. If soviets wanted independence for Finland why they invaded in 1939? You remind me of nazis arguing for the plight of sudeten germans. Pathetic

a clash of purple

I don't think JK was talking about the Soviets, just the Finnish Whites. Stalin and the Soviets don't have to be good guys for the Finns to also be bad guys. They can all be assholes. What was the population of Finland at that time? You have to admit it would be impressive for Finland to purge millions of people, because I don't think they *had* millions of people. They would have to bring in people from elsewhere just to purge them.

Bean Blackett

looking forward to checking out to the crows, but also wondering if john is ever going to record and audiobook version of The War Nerd Illiad. seems appropriate especially since that’s how the epic was first created and experienced!

a clash of purple

Sweden sucks and is full of billionaires. Only Norway is great and blameless among the world's nations. (Pay no attention to the Quisling regime.)

otso aunola

A few things, Mannerheim did not fight with the Germans he fought for Russia the jagers were a different thing. I also dont know how you can say that the kindship wars werent a goverment project, like sure they were mainly run by an actual consipracy. But with state support and with the state ultimately taking the gains from it. We took petsamo from the Russians, when going into this its good to remember we were the first to redraw the border with violence.

otso aunola

Its also insane that while while victims of bolshevik terror are rembered and used to condemm the USSR even after its gone. Finland gets no flak for either the white terror against its own population, or for participating in the Holocaust. Another good read to add to your list is Selective Memories: Finnish State Policy toward Roma in the 1930s and 1940s in Its European Context and Post-War Perception. Its about the treatement of Roma during the 30s and 40s. Its a pretty horrifying read.

Annibale

Yes, I misremembered this, I've posted a correction

otso aunola

Thank you for the series. From a Finn who is truly tired of this countrys unearned reputation.

Morgan&Hall

the finish whites had their own gulags during both the civil war and ww2

Zach

Hey Brendon-is there a Third Way to download your music? I see LP or mp3…looking for something like FLAC…love your stuff!

Adrian Johansson

Exactly. It was a very popular symbol that is why the Nazis used it.

Adrian Johansson

Mannerheim was not a germanofile. He was the last white General fighting the evil of communism. He was nostalgic for pre revolutionary Russia. He was against german influence in the civil war. That is why he pushed up the battle of Tampere to before german trained finnish troops where landed. It was with the help of professional Swedish staff officers that organized Mannerheims headquarters that the White Army started to work. Mannerheim preffered Swedish help throughout his career because it had the fewest strings attached. It was Sweden that made the Finnish ammunition stocks in the Winter War last more than two weeks.

Adrian Johansson

The Soviets rejected a personal union between Sweden and Finland after the winter war where both would stay Neutral. After that there was only the Germans the Finns could turn to as a Baltic Sea country.

Adrian Johansson

In the Civil War Mannerheim put mainland Swedish officers in key positions to run his staff and to make the logistics of the white army work. The Finnish army was disbanded after unrest in 1905 so those who had been officers there had no recent experience. Mannerheim being a Swedish speaking finn had no problems with Swedish officers.

Annibale

I've already posted a correction on this, and in the second episode we discuss Mannerheim's real position on Germany.

Annibale

Thanks for this. We agree on almost everything, but I want to add a bit of nuance. On NIF: you’re correct, and I never meant to suggest otherwise. Nobody is proposing miniaturising a stadium-sized laser facility into a warhead. My point is that data from those experiments (burn physics, mix, materials under extreme conditions) feed the simulation codes and the broader body of evidence used in weapon assessment and certification. This explicitly includes the first stage: NNSA's own FY2026 budget justification says it uses NIF (alongside Z and pRad) to enhance modelling and simulation for "the primary portion of the Nuclear Explosive Package." So, it is a key input into how primaries are understood, maintained, and modernised without nuclear testing. On penetrators, this was exactly my point on the show. No achievable penetration depth comes close to containment: the 2005 National Academies study reckoned a 300 kt device would need something like 800 meters of burial plus careful stemming, versus penetration depths that are a tiny fraction of that, and indeed it says that the presence of an unstemmed penetration hole ensures massive venting, which is exactly your chimney-flue image. And as you note, even properly stemmed test shafts occasionally vented; Baneberry blew radioactive debris through a fissure from 278 meters down. A nuclear earth-penetrating burst cannot be made fallout-free, and it behaves radiologically much more like a surface burst than like an underground test. On the other hand, because enhanced ground-shock coupling from shallow burial can reduce the yield required against the same buried target by a factor of 15–25, an EPW can produce substantially fewer physical effects and casualties than the much higher-yield surface burst needed for the same target. That's the actual argument proponents make: "less catastrophic," not necessarily "clean." However, as I’ve said on the show, the political and strategic implications of crossing the nuclear threshold could easily outweigh any reduction in the weapon's physical effects, so “less catastrophic” in the narrow target-effects sense doesn’t mean “any better” politically or strategically. On the money: the modernisation program is enormous, and CBO's latest projection is $946 billion for 2025–2034, roughly $95 billion a year. About two-thirds of that is DoD money for delivery platforms like Columbia submarines, Sentinel, the B-21 and its weapons, and NC3. Diversified primes build those, with big conventional and export businesses. The part I was really talking about is the DOE/NNSA side of the enterprise, particularly the warhead design labs and production plants. DOE accounts for roughly $295 billion of the projection, although that figure also includes some Naval Reactors spending rather than being purely the warhead complex. This is a handful of M&O operators running unique, classified facilities for a single sovereign customer, with no export market for the product. Contracts that, while periodically recompeted, run up to twenty years, with no competing M&O operator running the same site during the contract term; a workforce with highly specialised skills that often must be developed inside the enterprise; and extraordinarily high barriers to entry. The operators are mostly joint ventures of diversified parents (Honeywell, BWXT, Fluor, Battelle, universities). So my point is that the nuke business is a small, entrenched, self-perpetuating institutional constituency with a single government customer and extremely durable demand. I'd argue that this is more resistant to change than just a profit motive: profits can be competed away, but institutions tend to protect themselves. But for that very reason, the nukes business isn't an open, rapidly expanding dual-use market attracting new entrants the way military-related AI, data management, or cybersecurity is.

Annibale

In autumn 1940, Finnish representatives did formally pursue a Sweden-Finland union, envisaged as a state or personal union with closely coordinated foreign and defence policy, and Molotov told the Finnish minister in Moscow in December 1940 that pursuing it would amount to the end of the March peace treaty and warned Finland to consider the consequences. Paasikivi understood this as an ultimatum that carried the risk of renewed war. This was a real, documented Soviet veto. The Soviets also issued an earlier, distinct veto of a broader Finnish-Swedish-Norwegian defence alliance immediately after the end of the Winter War in March 1940. But I disagree that "after that there was only Germany", as this overstates the direct causal chain. Finland's rapprochement with Germany, including the September 1940 transit agreement, was already underway concurrently with, not strictly AFTER, the union talks, and it was driven above all by Finland's search for a great-power counterweight against the feared possibility of a second Soviet attack, although such an attack was not demonstrably imminent at that point. The collapse of the Swedish option certainly narrowed Finland's room for manoeuvre very substantially, and by December even Paasikivi recognised that Germany was becoming, in practical terms, the only plausible source of external support against Soviet pressure. But that is different from saying that the Soviet veto itself forced Finland into alliance with Nazi Germany. The German connection had already begun developing before the Soviet Union's final rejection of the union, while Finnish policy still involved competing attempts to secure support elsewhere. So I would frame it this way: Soviet policy progressively narrowed Finland's strategic alternatives and made the German option increasingly attractive, but the road to alignment with Germany was a process rather than a single causal consequence of Moscow vetoing the Swedish-Finnish union.

Doug Cartel

Strongly disagree with the notion that the Minab school massacre was solely because of the AI. I think they're blaming the AI for their own failures, which is the main purpose of AI for managers anyways. "Failures" is too kind actually, the school was an IRGC post for 3 years and a school for about 10, so there is no way they mis-identified it. Pete is just doing is "non-woke" warfare, thinking murdering children will somehow force people to submit. It's never happened but hegseth doesn't care

Shane

A bit late, but does Annibale have any recommendations on further reading for nukes. This is such an in-depth explanation on the history of bunker busters. As always, great episode!!!

William

Annibale doesn’t even get sick or injured. Is he really RWN material??

William

Big bombs that can destroy the world? This is nukes to me

Cory

Does Annibale have a body of writing available online? (Or offline). This comment makes me long for essays from him