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Radio War Nerd #321 — Ukraine-Russia War Update + Intro to Chechen Wars (Patreon)

Published:
2022-03-19 23:26:15
Imported:
2026-06
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Recorded: March 17, 2022

First: the War Nerd & Ames catch up on the last week of Russia's war on Ukraine.

At 1:10:00 - Ames introduces the Chechen Wars series, with some surprising parallels between Yeltsin's western-financed invasion of Chechnya in 1994, and Putin's war on Ukraine today.

Total time: 1:45:48

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Jon Spiegler

I was in a conversation recently in real life where we agreed it would be a good time for the War Nerd to cover Chechnya.

etienne

oh yeah spring in Montreal is incredibly dramatic. hits different every time

HeyB00B00

Y'all should talk to Max Blumenthal on this one

CR

Wow. JD with a sports metaphor. What is the world coming to?

Luke Mahler

This one is a banger, Mark and Jon. Good to hear a nuanced analysis of both sides in depth. At the outset of the war I thought the fog of war would be less intense with digital coverage and social media, but it turns out it is MORE intense.

Of course

Thanks for the distinction of urbanites and flyover country in Russia. It's useful to pair with Vijay Prashad's interview with Mitch Jeserich on "Letters and Politics," which is on YouTube.

G

Where can I find the RSS feed? I've been subbed for a few months now and still haven't been able to get it to work.

John H Schmitt

Can you get Carl Zha on to talk about the Chinese reaction (govt and general populace) to the Ukraine-Russia war?

Luke Mahler

he was quite excited at the outset about how the taiwanese should start building bunkers, i’d be interested to see how he feels at length especially given how Russia’s experienced military is struggling — and given how China’s entire military has never heard a shot fired in anger

P. Shaver

How come there's never been an episode on the pro Russian western voices where if you know one you know all of them. They're all interconnected with each other, some appeared on RT....like the Duran, The Saker, Moon of Alabama, Dimitry Orlov, Gonzalo Lira....

NYCM&AHole

Lol as a California transplant to New York (actually originally from Massachusetts), I understand the love of thawing winter

William Brame

If y’all don’t stop comparing Russia to the U.S. in Iraq…

Bil

Why

Jason Weiser

When you guys hit SF, can you hit LA too? :)

Chris H

Because Iraq was unprovoked and based entirely on a lie.

Professor Jokes

So two episodes in a row where you talk about zelensky in relatively glowing terms. The pandora papers revealed his vast corrupt wealth, and he and Bakanov are a Kolomoisky op. Personally i find him to be cringe af, his speeches are uninspired. At best his constant whining for a nfz is a shit tiered redux of Bosnians pleading for a right to self defense at the UN in 1992. How the hell do you talk about Zelensky without mentioning the Kolomoisky connection, you're stripping this moment of the most significant piece of context!

Ed carron

Can i please request that if you’re ever in the uk again can there be a meet up as well

a clash of purple

The Chinese military might never have heard a shot fired in anger, but they have fought medieval battles against the Indians on their border, because the world is a crazy place.

Donald Rhodes

Can I request the link to that ABC piece?

Jimothy Realname

Yesterday almost all the snow was melted and today we're getting 10-20cm. fucking fantastic

Thomas Sankara

Does anyone know if there were any remaining diplomatic options for Putin before going kinetic? The observers I follow say he exhausted all diplomatic options but maybe there is an alternative view?

Steve

Has an SF meet-up been planned?

Benke

I see that Chinese from China and those living abroad either buy the whole denazification story or support Russia out of spite for the western powers. They see US engagement in Ukraine analogous to US involvent in Tibet, Xinjang or in Hong-Kong - western power meddling in the affairs among Asians or Slavs in the case of Ukraine. China in the future might as well pull a "Special Military Operation" in Taiwan. Chinese are pretty jingoistic but the anti-western and pro-Russian sentiment is surprising to see among Asians living their whole life abroad.

Benke

Hey Mark, those guys from Russians with Attitude mentioned you along with John in their podcasts too. They charge more for the podcast tho. This Ukraine affair had them skyrocket up to 86k followers on Twitter.

Benke

Lol, Gonzalo Lira AKA Coach Red Pill? Dude, he's an alt-right grifter POS.

Patrick Friel

Thank you Mark and John for trying to keep your subscribers informed at this perilous hour. I saw Leon Panetta on Bloomberg on Thursday, and was shocked at how bloodthirsty he seemed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=ZPWu7cPPVv0 I saw Zelensky on CNN this morning. He said there is a 1% chance for successful negotiations, 99% chance of WW3. Is he the Antichrist?

Jason Weiser

Not that I’ve heard but the people are clamouring for it!

Jason Weiser

The next step will likely involve those robot dogs. What do you even do in that world?

Ed carron

Has he calmed down on the covid conspiracy stuff yet

Robert Rowe

Looks quite similar to some stuff filmed 70 years ago and a bit further West than Ukraine (in black and white). I don't speak any of the languages involved and my German is quite deficient as well. Where in hell did this video come from. Need attribution. Virtually EVERYTHING I've seen on line regarding these events has been either propaganda or ignorant echoes of same. Sources I trust are those I knew of and respected well before it dropped in the pot- And even those can't be relied on not to make mistakes.

radiowarnerd

Have you tried the one given in the latest newsletter? It's renewed with each new one.

G

I don’t think I’ve been receiving the newsletter. I checked my spam folder. It’s not a big deal—I’ve been able to keep up through the Patreon feed.

Gordon Schmidt

Very sorry to hear about your brother, Mark. I hope he gets well soon.

grey

Germany 1939: Blitzkrieg Russia 2022: Blyatkrieg

Of course

The options I saw for Putin were: 1. forget the red line and surrender and get ready to be sliced up like Yugoslavia, 2. cut off fuel to Europe, 3. limited incursion into eastern Ukraine, 4. incremental but full scale invasion of Ukraine - with each step a chip for negotiated settlement, 5. blitzkrieg, mass slaughter overrun and total takeover of Ukraine, or 6. nuclear war. Given the objectives the Russian govt announced at the outset (demilitarization, denazification, protect Russian speakers, no NATO), #4 could arguably have been the best move among lousy options. US/NATO/EU have been implacably hostile for many years, so ANY move on Russia's part to shield itself from NATO would have resulted in hysterical Western public relations and ultra-sanctions. From Russia govt's perspective, NATO/EU are the inheritors of the Third Reich's program for eastern Europe, the goal has always been the humiliation, subjugation, enslavement, and depopulation of Russia. So, really, what was Putin going to lose? I'm open to being convinced #2 or #5 could have worked better.

(American spirit menthol

It's an obvious point but it needs to be said that that Z shit is the corniest thing in the universe

Quinn

great episode. would always love more content but dont feel too rushed to keep pumping stuff out

Ross Kiro-Ward

One thing I have found is that no one has a metric to measure Russia’s military performance in Ukraine. What can we compare it to? Iraq, Afghanistan and even Vietnam to a lesser extent are entirely different conflicts. A lot of people say the US would perform better, and for the extra $650 billion they spend a YEAR on their military I sure bloody hope they would. Although, I don’t think the US is geared for a ground invasion against a near-peer enemy, hence why they depend so heavily on AirPower and stand-off weaponry. They would just bomb the shit out of Ukraine then roll in relatively unopposed; like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

ATH409

It is incredibly terrifying how willing the Ukrainian leadership and NATO is to potentially destroying Ukraine and perpetuating the death of thousands of innocent people. And for what? So NATO has to concede on print that they will never expand to Ukraine or have any involvement in Ukraine, and that they will stay a neutral country? And to those of you who would tell me “yeah just let them submit to the Russian hordes huh”. Ukraine is not winning this war. They aren’t. I try to refrain myself from being blunt and rude, but the idea that Ukraine can come out of this conflict victors is delusional. This conflict could last a couple more weeks, a couple more months, or a couple more years. The outcome will remain the same, a Ukrainian defeat. If Ukraine is going to be defeated, I would rather them end the conflict as soon as possible to prevent the most suffering, especially now when they have more leverage in negotiations, leverage they will have less of as Russia advances further.

ATH409

To play armchair general for a bit, it would seem at the very least that Russia was expecting Ukraine to see the surprise invasion and quickly come to the negotiation table and concede to at least the most important demand; a written declaration of forever absence from NATO and NATO involvement in Ukraine. Ukraine also seems to 1) have not expected the invasion and 2) expected (and still expect) NATO to come to their defense. Which is probably why the initial Russian push seemed so successful (at least in terms of the speed and scale of it, mostly in the south, I know mark thinks the initial invasion was disastrous, I don’t think it’s as bad as we’re led to believe)Things have changed though, and it looks like both sides have positioned themselves for a more conventional war rather than a quick show of force to push negotiations. Keeping this in mind though, I don’t see how this means Russia has been caught with their pants down, they’ve been preparing for a large conflict for the past 10-15 years. Maybe they didn’t expect this specific one to turn into a large conflict? We may never know, but I doubt they don’t have a plan for it. It’s incredibly hard in the first place to get a good idea of what is going on because of the incredible amount of propaganda and dubious sources on both sides. It’s hard to assess what Russias military goals even are. It seems they aren’t interested in starting massive battles over large cities like Kiev and Kharkiv, and are content with surrounding them. However, their efforts in the south and south east are completely different, where they’re more focused on moving quickly and taking as much territory as possible. Perfectly fine with shelling whole settlements and starting deadlier battles than seen in the north and north-east. One thing I think you guys missed on the morale front, is the morale of the Donetsk and Luhansk militia, who have been fighting the Ukrainian army for the past 8 years. They seem to be single-handedly carrying the south eastern front, initiating large battles and played a huge role in the surrounding of Mariupol. Their main task now seems to be pinning down the large formation of Ukraine’s best troops in the east. I would expect their morale to be just as high as any Ukrainian grunt really. I know we don’t like to make predictions. But I would be looking for the moment Russia decides to turn it up a notch. Yes, I’ve seen the horrible clips of Russian artillery and air strikes blasting city blocks to rubble, but it seems for the most part they are trying to focus on destroying military installations only and limiting the amount of potential for immense civilian casualties. This obviously means the Russian advance will be very slow, and that they’ll take a lot of casualties. So I would watch for a change in strategy if or once Russia deems it worth it to say “fuck it” and start an all out assault on large cities and Ukrainian defenses. Russian air has been relatively quiet, when that strategy changes, I’d expect to first see a huge increase in Russian air assaults before they turn on the meat-grinder in the larger Ukrainian settlements. I’ve said before I don’t see Ukraine winning this conflict, but I’m not deluded enough to think this will be easy for Russia, and think the conflict can end in many ways. From immense bloodshed and destruction, to a more diplomacy focused ceasefire after negotiations. Let’s hope eventually we see a shift towards diplomacy, as right now, NATO and Ukraine seem deadest on the push for an insanely disastrous war. But in the end. I know nothing, about as much as any schmuck on the internet.

Angus Cairnie

Agincourt/Crecy already happened, or the premonition of it, in the 2006 Lebanon War

Kendall

Great episode, boys; long awaited. Incidentally, that’s the Lermontov poem we committed to memory in my freshman Russian class, back when I could barely claw through the translation. I also still know it by heart after all these years. Stirred a lot of _nostalghia_ (although I’m a little loath to use that term after the recent Death/Corner ep). Hope your brother improves soon, Mark.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

I'm just another internet schmuck as well, but Id just point out that the NATO/US hawks have been preparing for this as well. We've all seen the reports of US special forces training Ukrainians, and those support missions with NATO in Afghanistan, etc., were opportunities for advanced training, and building person to person ties that are surely being leaned on right now, even if in an unofficial capacity. Like the War Nerd said, taking out generals with air strikes based on leaked cell signals is really not plausible without NATO or US support. I'm worried about what Putin will do when he gets tired of this, what's the next level of offense he will take it to once he decides that retaliation is in order.

Mark Ames

Thank you Kendall

Hugo

I am also in the same boat 🛶 thanks