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Radio War Nerd #322 — Chechen Wars, Pt. 2: 1722-1991 + Ukraine-Russia War Update (Patreon)

Published:
2022-03-26 23:24:28
Edited:
2022-07-24 18:23:57
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

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Content

Recorded: March 24, 2022

This episode, the War Nerd & Ames discuss the latest in Russia's war on Ukraine.

At 52:00 - Ames goes back a few centuries in the long gory history of the Russian-Chechen Wars, from Sheikh Mansur in the late 18th-c. up to Dzhokhar Dudayev's return to Chechnya as its independence leader in 1990-1.

Map of Chechnya

Listen to Part 1 in our Chechen Wars series (EP #321).

Total time: 1:44:00

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here. 

Files

Comments

Ramon Mial

Let's gooooo! You guys are awesome 👌

xxx

Love y'alls insight on this stuff! And thanks for releasing stuff more quickly, it's really nice. As a lowly groveling cheap skate it's more than I deserve. Is there another Civil War episode on the books? I'm super excited for the mid-to-late war coverage.

Sam Register

The first time the “Z” thing actually started showing up was in the 24 hours right before the war when it became pretty clear to people like me who didnt think it would happen. I read somewhere that Russian units were painting Z’s on their trucks and instructing their allies in ukraine to do the same

Rusty Shackleford

I have an easy time believing that the Russian killed-to-injured ratio is extraordinarily poor, given how bad they seem to be at many other comparably basic things. But then, what's a plausible level of extraordinarily bad, versus an obviously absurd one? The numbers we're getting don't seem realistic. (But then, neither does the entire concept of the war.) Along those lines, can someone shed light on how the Russian medical corps are organized? And how they seem to be performing?

NYCM&AHole

New York meetups? I am not on Facebook. Can you please keep us in the loop?

Thomas

Jean doLAHN

ATH409

The Ukrainians are winning the war on twitter, at the very least. But I guess that was expected.

Trevor deBoer

I'm shocked by the weakness in your analysis of Ukraine these past few weeks. I think the problem may be that you are immersed in western media. In any event, when you see what the Russians are getting close to accomplishing, I don't know how you can view this as having gone badly for Russia (again, unless you put faith in western media). Russia (with a smaller number of troops) has (i) substantially neutralized any meaningful Ukie threat from the air, (ii) held Ukie forces in place by attacking along broad fronts and surrounding cities, (iii) cut supply lines, destroyed stores and discouraged/destroyed reinforcements and (iv) prevented re-formation of Ukie forces. Now they squeeze patiently until Ukie forces are spent. Russia is doing Clausewitz. I know it's easy to be sceptical of this view if you begin your analysis based on western sources, but I would encourage you revisit your assessment of Russian strategy and tactics once the dust has settled and Western media can no longer deny reality. I mean this all with the sincerest goodwill, in the hopes of stimulating your analysis. I have been a loyal reader/listener since The Exile days (bring back Vlad's Daily Gloat!).

Boobs123

I think the Western media earned the slightest smidgen of trust this time, and what's the alternative? Posts on Signal and Twitter, heavily censored media in Russia? Some of it is useful, but a lot of it is sure to be noise and it's difficult to separate the two. RT is doing its best, but it is hamstrung by their own hammer blows of censorship from the EU and social media sites, plus it's not like they have lots of foreign bureaus that can send journalists to Ukraine (not that they would be allowed in).

mt

"A contact with connections to Kremlin-thinking" - sounds awfully lot like "anonymous sources near to the administration", meaning just abou anyone having an opinion 🤣🤣🤣 Really interesting episode!

ATH409

This will be a massive problem for the Middle East as a whole. Probably why the gulf countries are currently trying to cozy up to China and Russia.

ATH409

Western media lost any sort of trust they could gain from correctly “predicting” the invasion by their absolutely bonkers coverage of the war. They not only parrot exactly what the pentagon says but also the ridiculous propaganda that comes directly from the Ukrainian defense ministry. Not to mention constantly “accidentally” interviewing and giving platform to Ukrainian neo-nazis. Just this past week, western media claimed that thousands of Russians had been encircled in Kiev, this didn’t happen. A couple days ago, the pentagon told media that Ukrainian forces had recaptured Kherson, then immediately walked back on those claims to the point NYT had to say their info was wrong and even Ukrainian sources were pushing back on it, still, the rest of western media kept that narrative going. They constantly post fake videos and photos of destroyed Russian equipment, even going as far as posting video game footage and claiming it’s real. Western media has been predicting the complete collapse of the Russian army for the past 3 weeks, how long are they gonna keep up that narrative for? Probably indefinitely. I agree there isn’t much alternative, Russian media, and Russian telegram, aren’t much better. But I think we need to face the facts, no one, especially not in the west, is going to get a clear picture of this war till years after the conflict is over. I don’t think its wise for any one to start making predictions yet.

Ossi Tapio

EU, US and Canada probably would have the capacity to compensate the loss in wheat production but it would take swift and decisive planning and acting.

ATH409

There was talk about Belarus intervening in the war, it’s kind of quieted down now. Does anyone know any new info about it?

Alec

My opinion, you’re mistaking “Weakness” for caution. What makes you think you understand the chaos of an ongoing war better than these two journalists, with all their primary sources and experience? Also they agree with you that while the Russian military has made grave mistakes in their prosecution of this war (even Scott Ritter says this), they are winning (militarily) and have the advantage in a long war of attrition. That’s not guaranteed for a superior military (Vietnam Afghanistan etc). so what exactly is your concern?

Robert Rowe

A veteran tank commander has some caveats about all those Ukranian videos: https://youtu.be/W9pVEP0AzZ4 A retired Colonel who took part in the second Gulf War & Afghanistan assesses Russian progress (and intentions!) QUITE differently from the various CIA approved generals featured on CNN: https://youtu.be/NFngc_8RiVc Scott Ritter has a few thoughts on the matter, plus (metaphorically) urinates and defecates on Madeleine Albright's grave: https://youtu.be/OSkpIq3T-Zc And just for giggles, Russia announces they are only going to take payment for natural gas from the EU/NATO countries sligned against them in supporting sanctions in RUBLES from now on- But China can pay in Yuan. And unlike Iraq or Libya, the US military isn't going to be able to make them run THAT decision back. When CIA gets a nice false flag arranged and "discovers" that Russia is using WMDs/hacking USA's infrastructure, are SHOCKED! SHOCKED!!!, US Gov't. declares Russian behavior so far beyond the pale that ANNYTHING done by NATO must be justified and Biden goes nuclear, that little destruction of the US $ as the one and only world reserve currency play will likely have been the final straw.

d

Please come to the Midwest! I'm sure you could draw a good crowd in Chicago

orc

Come to nyc!!

DominusCaveaVulpes

FWIW (and correct me if I missed it being said on the show at some point), Putin didn't seem to have a problem with Latvia and Estonia joining NATO, obviously violating the "not one inch eastward" expansion thesis that's forming one leg of the reasoning for the invasion. Yeah, he could've just changed his mind at this late date, but is there anything special about any of these countries or their situations, now or then, that could tie into Russian reasoning for an invasion? (I really don't think it's a "crappy little countries" reason, FWIW.)

ATH409

They did have problems with the baltics joining. The difference was that at that time Russia was far to weak to do anything about it. Add to this, that at the time relations with NATO and Russia were relatively okay, both Putin and Yeltsin (as well as Gorbachev) wanted to cooperate with the west, going as far as asking to join NATO themselves.

DominusCaveaVulpes

OK, but could you show me something about or explain why Russia had problems (and I mean _serious_ problems, like what we're seeing now with Ukraine) with the Baltic States joining NATO? There's an interview where Putin openly states that they have no problem with this: https://legacy.npr.org/news/specials/putin/nprinterview.html Mr. Siegel: That's a very long answer to our listener's yes-or-no question, but I take it that you are saying under present circumstances you do oppose, until the relationship changes? President Putin: Not only I am not opposed to it, I actually don't think it makes any sense. If we were to deal with increasing its national security, NATO enlargement does not make sense. We of course are not in a position to tell people what to do. We cannot forbid people to make certain choices if they want to increase the security of their nations in a particular way. But I don't think that enlarging or enhancing NATO mechanically makes any sense. So, yeah, you can take this as pure propaganda, but how does it fit in with the much more serious response now? Military weakness just doesn't seem to cut it when they're still relatively weak compared to NATO now as then.

ATH409

In the interview you listed, Putin both questions the existence of NATO and why they would ever be hostile to a New Democratic Russia, that he is leader of. “NATO was built to counteract the Soviet Union in its day and time. At this point there is no threat coming from the Soviet Union, because there is no Soviet Union anymore. And where there was the Soviet Union once, there is now a number of countries, among them the new and democratic Russia.” Next, he predicts that NATO enlargement can cease to be an issue in Russia if he continues his cooperation with the west. “So what I am trying to say is that while Russia acknowledges the role of NATO in the world of today, Russia is prepared to expand its cooperation with this organization. And if we change the quality of the relationship, if we change the format of the relationship between Russia and NATO, then I think NATO enlargement will cease to be an issue” This is to my point that Russia, and even the late 80s Soviet Union, wanted to cooperate with the west and eventually be integrated into it. After all, the entire point, and reason for celebration among wealthy Russian liberals who led the collapse of the Soviet Union, was further integration with the west and western civilization. As it turns out “western civilization” had other ideas….. To my point about objections to expansion, Russia isn’t a monolith. Yes, many didn’t feel threatened by these moves, but many others did, as Putin stated in the interview, it was still an issue that needed to be negotiated. Many in the Duma at the time objected to Moscows current stance on NATO and urged the government to change its military policies. I can’t find much info in English on specifics besides tid-bits in different articles, but an article here from economic and political weekly in 2004 explains some of the situation. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4414989 It states that duma defense committee chairman, General Viktor Zavarzin, “asserted that Russia must rethink its defensive posture when the Baltic states have joined NATO.” Then it states that “Russias security council was called upon to consider deploying additional forces to regions bordering NATO countries.” It states that “Russian foreign ministry spokesman Aleksandr Yakovenko stated that the NATO decision was a threat to Russias national security.” Military weakness combined with a want for cooperation with the west is what led to the Baltics being allowed into NATO with not much but few diplomatic objections. You’re correct that Russia now, although much stronger than then, could still probably not face the full might of NATO. But my point is that both of these combined factors is what lead to NATO in the Baltics. If the Russian military and economy of today was transported to when the process of Baltic ascension into NATO was occurring, it’s feasible that Russia could use that might to pull their weight around in negotiations, and possibly attack these countries before they make it fully through the process. After all, that’s exactly what Russia has been doing in Ukraine up until this moment, when they deemed it necessary to strike. But because they didn’t have this power, all they could do at the time is try to cooperate with the west. Russia never attacked the Baltics at the time because they didn’t deem it necessary, and didn’t think they would be able to withstand significant western response (most of western response now is with immense sanctions, sanctions the Russia of yesterday would absolutely not be able to bear as well as today). An attack on the Baltics would mean the Russian liberal project of integration with the west would be immediately destroyed, they didn’t want that.

Professor Jokes

10% population reduction doesn't happen in the 20th century?

David Andrews

I really learned a lot here. Growing up we learned nothing about Russia or the Soviet Union other than it was evil.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Mark's fantastic cricket sound effects were so realistic, it gave me Havana syndrome

Zhentian

The discussion on post-revolution Russian Empire reminded me of Borislav Chernev's excellent book ' Twilight of Empire: The Brest-Litovsk Conference and the Remaking of East-Central Europe, 1917-1918' on that extremely complicated period. Also, Adam Tooze's 'The Deluge' is also excellent, and particularly relevant these days...

Ross Kiro-Ward

Yeh, I have to agree. I think the whole Russia is military incompetent view is an over correction made by people because they didn’t believe (for good reason) western intelligence about the invasion. I highly doubt this is going to turn into a ‘war of attrition’ when half an army is surrounded.

Lo

Yeah there’s a lot of problems with taking the US 1 KIA for every 10 WIA figure and applying it to the Russian military. For one, it’s not clear that Russia has invested in the logistics capacity to do rapid medevac on all its axes of advance. For another, there are pics of Russian IFAKs with gauze from the ‘70s. Hope it stayed sterile.

Lo

Getting my BTGs deleted and cratering my domestic economy for the foreseeable future to own the libs

a clash of purple

So the renminbi doesn't exist? It's certainly a more realistic competitor than the ruble ever was. You're also overlooking the actual most likely alternative, which is complete structural collapse of the entire international financial system, possibly combined with a global nuclear holocaust. The whole thing is teetering on the brink and has been for generations, it's only getting worse as time goes on, and nobody has a plan to deal with any of the problems. Like COVID in America, the crisis hasn't gone away, people just stopped caring because they'd rather die than do anything about it.

a clash of purple

As the U.S. has amply demonstrated, the status of the dollar in international finance is the result of political and military dominance, not the other way around. China would certainly have an easier time than Australia forcing countries to use their currency, if they felt like it, just like how Russia is forcing the Europeans to pay for their natural gas in rubles. My point is, the collapse of the dollar is going to be sudden and traumatic, not a gradual process. Big world events are like tectonic shifts; there's a lot of factors that build up relatively subtly, followed by dramatic, drastic, violent, and sudden activity. There doesn't need to be a realistic alternative to the dollar for it to collapse; the world already built one new global economic system following WWII after the old one destroyed itself, we could do it again. The fact that the dollar is stronger right now doesn't necessarily mean anything. I'm not going to be betting against America or the dollar anytime soon, probably not even in my lifetime. I'm just not sure I agree with you that the fact there's no current viable alternative to the U.S.-dominated global economy means that it's safe from suddenly falling apart for any number of reasons. Any number of reasons short of nuclear armaggedon, which is unfortunately not as unlikely as I wish it was.

Old Mate

Don't mind me, just sending in my best equipped tank brigades and having a bunch of generals smoked as a feint.

Trevor deBoer

Seems like many responders are doubling-down on western propaganda ("cratering the domestic economy" is especially rich in light of this week's developments; are you Joe Biden is disguise?). I guess being wrong makes you feel better than admitting the truth? Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how the west comes to grips with its hysterical delusions over the next few months. I predict that memory holes will be overflowing with inconvenient past statements.

Iandrasil

'I think the Western media earned the slightest smidgen of trust this time, and what's the alternative?' calling 'the invasion' periodically since 2016 is not 'getting it right' nor does it earn them 'a smidgen of trust' in short you do not in fact have to hand it to them lmao

radiowarnerd

Yes, there will be a NYC meet up June 17 -- we'll send out more details soon.