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Radio War Nerd #338 — World of Wars: Ethiopia, Ukraine + Ben Aris on the West's Economic War on Russia (Patreon)

Published:
2022-07-16 00:54:32
Imported:
2026-06
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Guest: Ben Aris, editor BNE IntelliNews

Recorded: July 13, 2022

First, we update the latest from Ethiopia's insurgencies in Tigray and Oromia...then we discuss some of the latest grim war news out of Ukraine & consider the not-so-deeper meaning of NPR's attempt at historical war analogy + the Kagan Industrial Complex's strange flirtation with truth bombs...

At 43:27 - we talk with Ben Aris (ep #320, #316) about the G-7's economic war on Russia, and all the unintended consequences and boomerang effects it's having on the home countries & the world.

*Map of Ethiopia

Check out Ben's media outlet BNE IntelliNews, and follow Ben on Twitter.

Total time: 1:39:04

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Ivan M

Excellent... another edition of 'Fall Asleep to 1 Hour of Ben Aris Telling Stories'. On par with Bob Ross and well worth the sub!

Cole

Ben is an insightful guest who makes complicated economic issues easy to understand

William

I would argue that the US chooses economic war over conventional war because it's easier (they're lazy), it's easier to hide the devastation, and most of the targets don't have the economic power to survive

Ander Pierce

The talk with Ben helped me understand the sanctions better. A 97% drop in automotive production is huge, both for the civilian economy and also for what it might mean for military manufacturing.

Ossi Tapio

In the early 90's Finland went through an economic recession in which GDP fell by 13% and unemployment rose from 3,5% to 18,9%. I was about ten years old that time and remember those years vividly. All news was bad, there was no money to do anything and the high point of a week was Saturday because I got about 1€ worth of candy. There was a severe spike in drug and alcohol abuse, street level crime and suicides. If this will be the cost of Ukrainian victory I will gladly pay it and then some.

David Andrews

So glad you brought up The Economist which I had to stop reading after their Iraq War cheerleading. Great interview. It seems most people are missing the dangerous implications of these sanctions.

A.I.Schmelzer

I dont get why they see "Russians invasion" as something that extraordinary. In international law terms, Ukraine had very extraconstiutional change of power. The side that got revolutionized/couped out did not agree with that, declared their seperation, and calls for their sponsor to protect them. If you look at OSCE reports, Kiev launched a massive artillery assault on Donbas, particularly on the 20/21.02.2022. Russia invaded in response to this. From their pov. they had a choice: 1: Stand by and let Donbass get butchered, and be despised for weakness. 2: Move in and face what the west can throw at it, and be feared for invasion. In a move that should surprise absolutely nobody, they moved in.

Scott Junor

Can I get an appeal on a ban from the Facebook group? There was a discussion about that stupid capital riot, with a bunch of dorks freaking about “coups on our democracy.” I was like chill out guys, they let those idiots into the building and then waited a year so they could have their investigation during an election year. It’s political theater just like Russiagate. I was then banned by a Patrick Connor for “fascism.” How are you guys going to let a straight up MSNBC robot be a full on admin on your Facebook group? Come on, man.

etienne

this implies that, in terms of industrial technology and vehicles, russia is running on what it already has in place and is basically unable to replace factory machinery and most vehicles as it wears out and is entering a war of attrition over microchips and fabs. is that right?

Alex Muir

Excellent interview & very timely. I think Ben summed up the essence of the sanctions war when he said it's between the G7 & Russia, with the Global South more in sympathy with Russia than the Angloid West. In the long term that could work in favour of Russia, and the South.

Lo

Oh so you mean the United States chooses to conduct coercive actions with the greatest degree of success and least risk to its own assets? Like, duh, the US is the great imperial satan, yes let’s all stipulate that. But can we please stop with people making points equivalent to “it was fr lowkey sus when the British used Maxim guns at Omdurman ngl”

Lo

Yes. Even assuming the PRC would would bother to step in, Russia will not have access to the latest semiconductor lithography technologies for the foreseeable future. No worries. The hardy industry of the Russian people and incredible success of all previous and future import substitution campaigns will assuredly lead to the achievement of Russia’s stated goal of achieving by 2030 the same manufacturing capabilities TSMC enjoyed in 2011. They will definitely do this!

William

I don't know what you're angry about but, "least risk to its own assets"? Perhaps what the perceive the least risk to be. But you'd have to be a fucking idiot to think the US has had any success with economic warfare or that this was the "least risky route". The least risky route would be diplomacy, dipshit

etienne

oh cool so russia is gonna collapse in the same manner and in the same time horizon as my last factorio sandbox game

Lo

hope you got Factorio before or after the weird price spike I said nothing about a collapse in Russia. I was only talking about Russia's ability to buy or produce semiconductor architectures the Globohomo Empire is and will be producing

Lo

I hope you'll appreciate how funny it is for you to start with, "I don't know what you're angry about" and then end with ",dipshit." I invite you to define how the US has been more harmed in economic terms by Russia's invasion of Ukraine than Russia has, let alone how the US has suffered more from global macroeconomic trends like the collapse of just-in-time supply chains more-so than comparable nations (which Russia is decidedly not).

etienne

i bought it in like 2016 lol

William

Not as funny as reading your reply. What's wrong? No counterpoints? How's the sanctions against Venezuela going? How about Iran? Have they been brought to their knees yet? What about North Korea? What examples do you have for "greatest degree of success" or "least risk"? All I see is the US prompting the rapid growth of an economic system outside the rule of the dollar. Nothing like a weapon that loses more of its effectiveness every time you use it, right?

William

"Moreso than comparable nations". This alone indicates that your understanding of economics is on par with that of pocket lint. There are no comparable nations. Even if you want to compare on basis of GDP per capita, the countries with a higher per capita GDP are overwhelmingly petro-states and tax havens. The US sanctions have further complicated already strained supply chains and increased the price of one critical input that nearly every supply chain relies on - oil. Causing the price of transportation to rise has directly impacted inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; this alone may contribute to the looming recession most now anticipate. Not just recession here -in Europe too. With less discretionary income to spend consumption will fall, even with credit making up the difference. This is most likely the last nail in the Biden coffin for re-election and political uncertainty is, without a doubt, definitely going to help Ukraine's war effort, right? The fact that our sanctions have hurt the US AT ALL is a pie in the face. I have no idea what it's like for Russains, but from Ben's interview, sounds like most of them are still being paid despite not being able to work. Meanwhile, raw material prices have risen across the board and other parts of the world are becoming more an more instable. That's definitely not going to have consequences for the US, no not at all, right?

j

I saw that NPR article and lost my sh!t

JBS

Can I get a link to the Andrew Coburn newsletter mentioned about Ukraine aid being given to Northern Virginia mansions?

Aditya V

Pretty good interview and very lucidly explained on Russia, sanctions, blowback. However, it is not certain that the West did not game this ... People like Rand corporation have been doing this for decades and Germany would have done it too... If the West was prepared enough to sanction Russia on such a large scale and freeze the reserves, they would have been prepared for the energy crisis too. Maybe the German capitalist want to shutdown and outsource jobs to Romania, Bulgaria, Poland ... Profits come first i.e. long term profits, not short term. Check Von der Leyen's family history. SHe is foremost among war hawks and the Green party backers may have something to benefit from the war too. Assuming them to be morons is wrong. Von der Leyen family history shows that

mt

Mark & John, what are your thoughts about this Ukraine-stuff really being US war against its curently only real rival EU? EU is about to lose a lot, especially if it true what Vucic in Serbia says that all hell will break lose when the West don't accept the offer. I take this thesis rather seriously becaus if you take a hard look, the US has stopped innovating and producing. The archetypical company coming out of US is Uber. A hyperfinancialoized company - zero profit, no way to make a profit but aiming for monopoly to extract rent, entering markets through legal arbitrage: not getting jailtime for bribery, threats to journalists, butt-raping drivers etc. Amazon, Tesla etc all of them live on legal arbitrage, not because they have innovated anything. Foreign Policy published an article sometime ago laying out that the strategic aim of the US was to stop any rival from rising instead of becoming better themselves.

George P

Wow a Stan Murch reference on the podcast. Donald Westlake is so good, those books will never stop being funny.

Dan Man

He's changed his tune a fair bit since the interview shortly after the operation began.

James Whale

Appreciate the updates about tigray and Ethiopia!

James Whale

I'm a high school teacher and one of my students is a refugee from Ethiopia and we often talk about the ongoing war. Your show has been helpful keeping me abreast of the situation.

Doug Cartel

it sounds like the MSM is building up a bibliography that we can all point to when the west ukrainians try to genocide the east ukrainians, assuming they control any of east ukraine a year from now. I guess Kimberley's initials spelling KEK instead of KKK is a step up. I guess.

d

just something important to note that might clear up why Russia can't spend the money: those dollars are on the balance sheets of correspondent banks and any transaction involving them would ultimately go thru the NY Fed, which clears all dollar transactions. It's helpful to think of it less as Scrooge McDuck piles of cash and more as easily surveilled database entries. They don't "physically" have the money, that's just not how modern banking works. There's only a trivial amount of world trade not denominated in dollars (minus eurozone transactions), which makes evading these sanctions difficult. It's no easy thing to construct an alternate global monetary architecture on the fly, even if people make noise about it every now and then.

Of course

Ok, but that guy with the viking hat...

Sean Kelly

Fantastic interview!

Ezra de Leon

Interesting comment from Aris that NATO/EU support has been on a "just enough" basis, which is exactly the same as their COVID response has been. Well, Ukraine/our health care system hasn't completely collapsed yet so that means our policy is the bestest.

James

Maybe have Rania Khalek on? She knows Lebanon inside out and I think has a different view from you guys on Ethiopia? A little bit of debate might make for a very listenable episode.

Cameron Young

Really solid episode, Ben’s discussion on the fertilizer production in Ukraine and Russia stuck with me from the last one.

Mark Ames

Thanks. Yeah that makes sense, and shows what a truly powerful weapon a dollarized global economy is compared to mere military hardware weaponry. Can these booked "dollars" be converted into another currency like yuan, outside of America's reach, and be used that way to buy goods? Or converted into rubles and used to pay Russians? The money isn't currently in the NY Fed either.

Mark Ames

Something tells me that, with so much money to be made on the spreads, finance/laundering people will find a way around it that will involve larger sums than those on the margins. It may take a few months more but I'd bet they'll find more ways to move larger and larger sums.

James

Mark - you might want to read 'The Money Lenders' by Anthony Sampson (who also wrote my favourite book on the oil industry 'The Seven Sisters' and Mandela's authorized biography). TML is pretty old (1982) but he talks extensively about the history of Eurodollars which are (synthetic) dollars outside of the control of the US govt. People who talk about the end of the dollar hegemony should read: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c6838/c6838.pdf But I think Eurodollars can help China/Russia weaken US power. If they built a shadow swift that was denominated in eurodollars that would be a big deal IMO.

Doug Cartel

I'm too lazy so just pretend this post is a joke about the air force refusing to donate all those A10s that they hate because they dont want ukraine to win the war too fast

Jim Vail

War in Ukraine is about liberal democracy? Was he reading from Bidens script.