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Recorded: July 21, 2022

"If two fish are fighting in the water, an Englishman was there"

In part 2 of our series on Turkey's 1974 invasion of Cyprus (part 1: EP #337), we start with the sham independence constitution forced on Cyprus by the departing Brits  ensuring sectarian strife and British bases in perpetuity...and we end on the eve of Turkey's 1974 invasion, with Kissinger nearly blowing up the planet, and the CIA convinced that Britain's new prime minister is a Kremlin-controlled asset.

Listen to Part 1 in our Turkish Invasion of Cyprus series (EP #337)

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Total time: 1:57:08

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here   

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William

Happy late birthday Mr. Nerd

Demented Avenger

"Once you've been to Cambodia, you'll never stop wanting to beat Henry Kissinger to death with your bare hands."—Anthony Bourdain

Blorst of times

Happy birthday! Can’t wait for that Turkey series!

a clash of purple

There's endless discussion in the U.S. about Hitler and how crazy he was and why he was so crazy, etc., etc., and yet zero self-awareness that all these Angloid leaders (I would argue) from Churchill to Truman to Nixon to Thatcher to Reagan to both Bushes were basically psychotic invalids incapable of rational thought, propped up almost purely by capital and the voting polity's ambient racial animus.

Magic Mikey

I’m really disappointed with Radio war nerds coverage of Ukraine in what is probably the most geopolitically important war since Vietnam (most important ever if it actually ends in nuclear conflagration). War nerds coverage has trailed off in recent months despite the scope and stakes increasing, the conflict intensifying and the scale of casualties mounting. Unusually for radio war nerd, other than your interview with Seth harp, your coverage on this conflict has not been particularly insightful in the first place, being overly reliant upon western mainstream media (MSM) and security establishment sources who are all lying on a scale I have never witnessed in my life, a point John Pilger also made in a recent interview. Yes, there is Russian propaganda too, but because the scale of the obvious lying is heavily asymmetrical towards the western MSM, the truth probably lies somewhere much closer to the Russian version of events. You don’t have to lie so much when you’re winning so heavily. My apologies for being so blunt. Perhaps most listeners are happy enough with your pottering away about Cyprus and the Italian wars. I just see radio war nerds considerable expertise and intellect not being applied in any major way to the geopolitically most important conflict of the last 50 years - which is happening right now! Missed opportunity in my opinion. You’re also missing a trick by not interviewing Scott Ritter. Even if you vehemently disagree with him, he’s got considerable relevant expertise and is one of the very few people in the establishment who swam against the tide in trying to prevent the war in Iraq, at great personal cost.

Haemu

Listening to them "potter away" about things like Cyprus and the Italian Wars is why most people sign up to the war history podcast.

Martin Davis

OK, they aren't providing a running commentary (altho' Mark comments on Twitter all the time). But check the previous outing (13 July): superb and informative interview with Ben Aris, reaching the parts most commentating from whatever viewpoint do not reach.

Magic Mikey

Ben Aris was pretty good last year on the gas politics and economics, but his recent comments lacked insight and imagination I thought. Chinese factories will be making anything the Russians can't make themselves in no time, IP be damned. What can the west do? Sanction China, wreck the western economies and empty western stores of most manufactured goods? Never say never, but it won't qualitatively change things and if there's one thing 2008/2009 taught us is that Chinas economy is highly resilient to global economic shocks.

Martin Davis

Aris was informed and his comments multi-stranded. By comparison you have simplicity and certainty. We can take our pick, then, can't we?

a clash of purple

The invasion of Ukraine isn't going to escalate into nuclear war, don't be silly... The whole reason why Ukraine will never be allowed to actually join NATO in the first place is in order to avoid a nuclear holocaust. Anyway, I'm really not sure what you want RWN to do that they aren't already. When they've found journalists who have real insight into what's going on, they interview them for the show, but by and large the reality is that it's almost impossible to learn what's actually going on.

a clash of purple

And how will the Russians pay for Chinese goods? Rubles? And what do you mean by 'Chinese' factories? Manufacturing in China is done by the private sector, and even if the Chinese government doesn't sanction Russia, the companies who own and operate Chinese industry have to navigate those sanctions in order to do business with all the big multinational concerns and banks. I believe this is a subject Ben Aris has actually talked about on RWN. You're also assuming a lot about China's relationship with Russia. I really doubt the PRC is happy about Putin's decision to invade Ukraine and create all this global instability. Why would they go out of their way to help Russia when it likely means pissing off all their other, bigger business partners? I'm sure Russia will be relying heavily on trade with China in the near future, but I don't think it'll do as much as you seem to think it will to blunt the effects of the sanctions. The PRC and Russia aren't friends. Very few countries in the world will go to the wall for their supposed allies. Iran and Hezbollah are tight, as are the U.S. and its evil dictator clients. But even if it would make rational sense for China and Russia to 'team up' against the West, they're not likely to do it. People usually prefer to do something stupid and get themselves killed for no reason rather than do anything logical.

Magic Mikey

“And how will the Russians pay for Chinese goods? Rubles?” Like the belief that western IP is sacrosanct and that IP protection measures will work, (somehow and for the first time in history) this is a good example of a lack of imagination. Yes, the Russian banks being cut off from the western financial system and currencies is problematic, but hardly insurmountable. And these problems are being surmounted – at the expense of western political and financial superiority. There’s also a reason the ruble is now stronger than it was before the invasion –it can be used to buy Russian commodities (and manufactured goods to a much lesser extent). The argument that China, India and other countries buying Russian commodities and manufactured goods won’t be able to trade for lack of a medium of exchange is somewhat myopic imo.

a clash of purple

Rubles can't be used to buy goods from Russia unless the buyer isn't subject to the anti-Russian sanctions (like if you're Germany buying oil). That already cuts out a majority of potential customers. That's why Ben Aris said the only thing that the Russians can import is money. Their exports are also severely circumscribed. Western Europe needs their fossil fuels, so they're still safe on that front for now, but plenty of countries are now facing a dilemma: buy much-needed food from Russia and risk America throwing a temper tantrum, or respect the sanctions and watch helplessly as your population starves and blames you for it. Look, yes, it's true that sanctions are a double-edged sword. It's also true that the more the West tries to use them as a weapon, the less effective and the more self-destructive they become. It's also true that, even though this war was a terrible idea on every level, the Russian government did at least prepare their economy for it somewhat sensibly. But there isn't a parallel global economy. Not yet, at least, and probably never, since if there was a real threat of that happening then America would probably blow up the world rather than lose hegemon status. These sanctions are going to hurt Russia terribly, and there isn't much they can do to mitigate it in the long run. The most they can do is inconvenience and annoy the U.S. in response, which I doubt will accomplish anything. The American ruling class is united on this issue, and the public is completely politically inert.

Magic Mikey

“Rubles can't be used to buy goods from Russia unless the buyer isn't subject to the anti-Russian sanctions (like if you're Germany buying oil). That already cuts out a majority of potential customers. That's why Ben Aris said the only thing that the Russians can import is money.” That’s simply not true though. Russian imports are down, but not non-existent. Its more accurate to say that Russia currently runs a large current account surplus, and that surplus has become larger since the sanctions. It’s likely to become smaller as various mechanisms are worked out to replace items Russia cannot produce domestically in its largely self-sufficient manufacturing base. Yes, iphones will be in short supply, as will Dutch 7nm chip lithography systems and German industrial 3D and 4D printers. If only Russia was in an alliance with a country famous for copying western IP, developing significant expertise in manufacturing alternatives, and finding ways to avoid secondary sanctions with partners... Meanwhile my electricity bill is going through the roof, never mind the knock on effects that now threaten a recession. If there’s electricity cuts this winter, I’ll be up at the parliament throwing insults. If it doesn’t get solved other people might start throwing rocks.

a clash of purple

Well, throw a few insults for me. All these sanctions and military aid to the Zelenskyy regime are just making a bad situation even worse (again, no offense to any Ukrainians reading this).

VictorBout

Magic Mikey, I completely agree with you about RWN coverage. But Scott Ritter has totally discredited himself. I have followed his early commentary on the conflict and it was wildly inaccurate. Admittedly I don't know what he's been saying recently, but still think he should not be the voice of opposition to the Western program on Ukraine. As to what has been happening inside Russia as a result of the conflict and sanctions, it is a mixed bag, but it is becoming clear that China has not "stepped up" and fear of secondary sanctions on the part of Chinese companies is very real, in fact, I have personally been affected by it.

Gabo Goff

Great episode. My grandfather immigrated from Greece after world war 2 but was so angry at the us support of the junta that he renounced his us citizenship.

Mat K

I too would like to see more coverage on Ukraine.

Andrew

John and Mark, have you guys ever looked into the Colin Wallace story? He was British intelligence officer in Northern Ireland and was involved in the Harold Wilson situation. Also funnily enough, this is a quote from MI5 officer Peter Wright speaking on N. Ireland: “It reminded me a lot of Cyprus. A fierce, insoluble conflict, made worse by a vacillating British policy.”