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Radio War Nerd EP #419 — Economic War on Russia Update, feat. Ben Aris (Patreon)

Published:
2024-01-12 03:10:54
Edited:
2024-01-12 03:13:36
Imported:
2024-01
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Content

Guest: Ben Aris, founding editor BNE IntelliNews

Recorded: January 10, 2023

RWN guest Ben Aris joins us for our semi-annual review of the US-led economic war on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. Spoiler: the economic war is not going according to plan.

Total time: 1:05:26

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Files

Comments

Jethro Mojave

Classic war nerd curse of recording something right before a major “HAPPENING”

Jethro Mojave

People have seriously underestimated Ansar Allah. Are there any older episodes or readings that talk more on that group?

Tom Warner

If you go through the episode guide they have a bunch of episodes on Yemen yeah, I was just listening to the first one they did (33?) and it's aged remarkably well (things went sideways there in exactly the ways they expected)

j

I feel like this is a general podcast phenomenon

Ty Drown

A lot of those (formerly) yacht-owning Russians are also richer because their yachts were confiscated. Governments that took possession of them quickly found out how much they cost to maintain. Boats don’t make you richer.

Bryan Nicholson

Call me a dork, but I love these economic warfare eps. Like 🥦 for my podcast-addled 🧠. Keep em’ coming, fellas!

HarshMalarkey

Oh would you look at that, some fresh anti-white racism

a clash of purple

As crazy as it seems, is Russia actually going to win this war? Like, are they going to accomplish whatever they were imagining they were going to do in Ukraine AND blow up Europe's economy while coming out ahead? I mean... it's no longer "What would victory look like for Russia?" it's "How can the West win here?" I mean, the U.S. is doing fine economically, unlike Europe, but they've certainly lost 'legitimacy,' whereas Russia might have pissed off the Europeans, but they're still able to do business with most of the world.

a clash of purple

It's wild that even now, Western media is still referring to the Houthis as Iranian-backed "rebels" and that Saudi collaborator holed up in a hotel in Riyadh as the "legitimate internationally-recognized government." From now on, I'm going to start calling myself the legitimate internationally-recognized government of Estonia. The Iranian-backed 'Estonian' rebel regime, which seized power in 1991 to empower the Estonian ethnic group, continues to govern all parts of the country in defiance of the international community, but I remain confident that one day soon I will be able to return to Tallinn and retake my rightful place as leader of the country.

Benjamin Glover

I want to know if the war has helped Russia's mayonnaise situation

William

If I were Russia I’d be more concerned about the economy when the war ENDS, not now

George McG

Ben Aris is, as usual, and incredibly knowledgeable guest. I would raise one point of contention, with a throway mention he made to German unions keeping the price of German labour high. That's not quite right, German wages have actually been supressed compared where they could be (excuse the age of this article): https://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2015/0915miller.html "Germany’s repressive labor policies kept a lid on wage growth. In every year from 2000 through the onset of the financial crisis in 2009, German compensation per employee increased more slowly than the eurozone average, and less even than in the United States. During the 1990s, German workers’ real wages rose along with productivity gains, meaning that employers could pay the higher wages without facing higher labor costs per unit of output. After 1999, wage gains no longer kept pace with productivity, and the gap between the two widened."

Matt Colston

The true lesson is war is a logistic and people business.

T

Listening to RWN it seems the chief problem of the US is that it is run by a schlerotic and insulated elite. i'm interested in the idea of ruling class regeneration - is that a possibility? Can things get so bad that a different, more competent and energetic faction within the elite overthrows the dominant faction? How many times and for how many decades can the US elite fail without consquences internal to the elite?

etienne

hold on you're telling me that someone blew up the pipes and along with it most of the fixed low long term price gas and as a result the same gas now goes out as LNG and paid for at unstable inflated spot prices *at the same places*? that's insane I bet the russians are laughing themselves numb all the way to the bank

Hans Anders

Aris has a good feel for European politics. That said, there’s an interesting disconnect between “Europe wasn’t willing to take pain and therefore they couldn’t defeat Russia” on the one hand, and “Europe is taking a lot of pain and they still can’t defeat Russia” on the other.

Tom Warner

if you want my entirely unqualified opinion, "it'll happen sooner than we expect, and if history is any guide it'll get very messy very fast"

T

It’s the only battlefield available to post-MAD nations

T

What is Russias cultural appetite for mayonnaise? I thought mayo was just a viscous medium for Americans to eat deli meat.

etienne

I guess the russians are making the calculus that, if you sell the gas to the west, they'll give you USD, which you can use to give to americans to get googaws, which they take and give to Asians to build the googaws and sell back to you. If you sell the gas to Asia directly, you get the googaws directly. Buyer of last resort this, exporbitant privilege that, there's only so much deindustrialization you can really get away with right?

William

It’s astonishing how wrong the “people” ben cites are, with everything they think, all the time

brrrskrrrt

Not really. Europe wasn't willing to commit mutually assured economic sepuku at the start of the war; it was willing to go along with the increasingly shrill escalatory mood among policy makers and think tankers as the war dragged on. It's very much the same dynamic as a gambler being unwilling to lose all of their money in one go, but rather opting to gradually double-down on subsequent bets after losing the first one, in the belief that they'll recuperate the loss. Things have very much been driven by psychological forces rather than economic rationality; the xxth economic sanctions package is feasible now in a way that it wouldn't be at the beginning for the same reason a gambler would be unwilling to bet all of his money on the very first bet rather than trickle it down into nothingness. Leaving that dynamic aside, the reality is that by arriving at the xxth sanctions package gradually, we've both given ourselves and Russia time to adjust, thereby lessening the economic damage. One could argue the end result is that we've hurt ourselves more than Russia, but no one either could have or did predict that Russia would be posting 3-4% rGDP economic growth in 2023 despite the sanctions. If your assumption is significant economic damage to both sides, but that Europe will weather it way better than Russia, then there's no disconnect - it has just not been shown to be true, thus far.

a clash of purple

To answer your questions, in my modest opinion: No, there's no possibility of American ruling class regeneration. No, we have completely run out of "more competent and energetic" factions within the elite. And I assume the U.S. elite's failures will continue forever, while they themselves grow more and more stupid and useless. What's the alternative?

a clash of purple

None of the Ukrainian regime's backers are willing to suffer anywhere near as much as Ukraine is, was what Aris said. If the West had put its foot down from the beginning and said that the global economy will grind to a halt until the war ends, then it might have actually made a difference. Instead they deluded themselves that they could strangle Russia's economy without serious self-inflicted harm, and so they've ended up strengthening Russia's hand while hurting themselves anyway for no benefit. It's kind of a weird psychological space, but it's not a disconnect. The Europeans have endured a lot of hardship by now, it's true, but at the beginning they chose a course of action that they thought would spare themselves while forcing Ukraine to bear all the cost of the war. Honestly the situation goes to show the foolishness of using Putin as a metonymy for Russia. The war in Ukraine is his personal folly, by all accounts, but it sounds like the other officials in the Russian government have actually managed to exploit Western stupidity and arrogance in order to turn the war from a disastrous self-immolation into, of all things, a pivot away from the Russophobes in Europe towards more promising business relationships elsewhere.

a clash of purple

It's the same thing said about France, though. It's always the fault of the unions that [insert bad thing here]. Pro-capitalist economists have to excuse the rent-seeking behavior of capitalist enterprises by blaming those darn greedy unions. Otherwise you'd have to acknowledge things like class warfare, and the fact that the businessplace is a zero-sum tug of war between labor and capitalists...

a clash of purple

That'll depend a lot on what concessions (if any) they're able to squeeze out of Ukraine, I suppose.

Michael L

Too much of what this guy said is either outright wrong or misleading to comment on. Much is right or ok but lots way off. Disappointing. I know this is a pointless post but it’s just venting at a usually outstanding podcast.

JoR

Especially with how hard it is to understand. I'm like John, economic and finance episodes might as well be in Greek, so guests like this are so helpful

pelicans123

The Americans aren’t producing 100k 155mm a year, it’s closer to 40k. 100k is their goal by the end of next year

CR

“The SECOND happiest day in a boat owner’s life …”

CR

As we have begun implementing the Morgantheu Plan 75 years late, the reason we didn’t (Russia) has become the reason we are doing it. Either way, Russia doesn’t have to beat Europe. It just has to outlast the American vassal governments that will let us keep destroying their economies for our vague principles. Eventually, AfD will take power in Germany, and if Trump does win in November (which is uncertain, but it is also impossible for me to see Biden winning), then that’s game.

CR

🌎🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

CR

It’s a shame you all didn’t get into Russia’s non-oil & gas industries. I keep finding it funny how Apple has an ad for its titanium iPhones but pretends like the vast majority of titanium isn’t in Russia. But we haven’t heard much about wheat exports and that whole debacle either.

CR

Go on …

CR

Yes. That is what happened.

CR

The apparatchiks actually running things behind the scenes are the same fresh psycho college dems and Ivy League lawyers and mbas as it’s always been. They tested out mayor Pete and they are disgusting to people who don’t give fucks about resume candidates. But resume strivers are the ones actually telling Biden what he knows to decide what he does. So as stupid as he’s always been, he’s also being siloed even more than he’s ever been from any information a bunch of 35-45 year old west wing wannabes (literally. They still think they are living in that show that they grew up with) decide is important. In case you’re also wondering whether policy on Israel or anything will ever change, no, the people who will be presidents and senators 50 years from now are the ones who share the same views as Biden and blinken and nuland do now.

MoldyTolge

I am now very curious about the supply line for that Apple titanium.

MoldyTolge

Only pointless if you don’t elaborate on what was wrong or misleading. We have no way of knowing if he was actually wrong or if you just don’t like what he said.

MoldyTolge

After a episode of rough news this gave me a good laugh. Us Legitimate-Internationally recognized governments have got to stick together!

Michael L

You’re absolutely correct but my time is extremely limited and if I say something I prefer for it to be well documented and on point. That’s why I said my post was pointless and just venting. Short version: he was incorrect about Russian “war economy” -the economy is most definitely NOT “on a war footing,” though they obviously have increased military spending. Their economic expansion has been both broad and deep and there are some issues but nothing like what was being implied. Also the casualties; I’m not sure what he was referring to actually, but the most authoritative and reliable sources suggest that the losses have been staggeringly large on the Ukrainian side and moderate on the Russian side. Talking to a Russian friend is not convincing evidence. And those are only two things which I can remember off the top of my head and without looking deeper into sources, etc. They’ve talked to that guy before and I remember thinking the same thing. He’s just got that weird British bias against Russia it seems. Also agree with William’s short post above.

David Andrews

Excellent episode. I follow this war closely but was unaware of how relatively well Russia's economy is performing.

CR

Apparently, a Chinese company. So there’s a good chance it’s actually Russian in its ultimate origin.

SB

Aris is a fraud who throws around a bunch of ridiculous claims and incorrect numbers. The irony is this conversation with him (why again?!) was the least wrong, by far. I'm only disappointed John and Mark didn't ask him if he still stands by his previous idiotic claim that Russians were importing washing machines in large numbers to get from them chips for their missiles.

SB

Notice how Aris keeps saying, "they were wrong", "they misunderstood", "they underestimated" but never "I was wrong", "I was stupid to believe", etc. He is a sleezy BS-er that for reasons beyond my comprehension John and Mark keep returning to for a new doze of pseudo-economic BS.

SB

And Russians are producing at least 3m (not 2m) and by some, less reliable, estimates closer to 5m of 152mm a year. But Aris is always very cavalier with numbers he throws around.

SB

The elephant in the Russian economy room is that the sanctions, confiscations, and SWITF disconnect (the most idiotic measure IMO) forced Russian rich to invest inside the country instead of buying mansions and mega-yachts in the West. Combined with the reduced import, this created a perfect storm for internal economic development. Who'd have predicted? Not the arrogant elites.

Gordon Schmidt

I think a lot of younger people like me are shaking their heads at all the mistakes our gerontocracy is making. Maybe it's naive to suppose we could do better, and maybe we'll never get the chance, but the old men who run things and their old ideas have to die sometime. The one thing you can count on is that things tend to change.

pelicans123

Maybe, 5m would be extremely high given pre-war production numbers, even 3m is pushing it. I do a lot of defense production analysis and the only 5m numbers I’ve seen basically took pre-war production figures, ramped them up to wartime numbers, then just added an extra 1/3rd to represent the extra shift at the plants. Not really how that scaling works - adding extra shifts has diminishing returns because of things like increased maintenance and more wear on the same machines. Russian shell production is definitely a lot bigger than American, but they also did a pretty shit job of it to start, and he is right about the lead time on these facilities being 18-24 months. They’d have had to start new facilities immediate when the war started to get to those figures, which they didn’t do until 6 months in or so. Hard to estimate but I think 2-3m is probably a realistic range - if they were making 5m they wouldn’t need to import and would in fact be able to export.

Tyler Berglund

If you don’t read or listen to any Ukraine/Russia analysis Ben Aris might sound intelligent. But if you stay up to date on this conflict Ben Aris is clearly improvising while taking huge hauls on a copium tank. Ben adds a dash of Russiaphobic rhetoric for good measure. Good grief this man is insufferable.

Jack Ross

Care to be more specific?

Jack Ross

At the end Ben claims that t he Russian economy is the fastest growing economy in Europe. Where does he get this figure, I haven’t been able to corroborate it. Did he more strictly in terms of PPP?

Jack Ross

Care to be more specific?

Jack Ross

I didn’t really see him make that second claim. He more just highlighted that Europe, particularly Germany, is taking a lot of pain. He never said “they can still defeat Russia” I think he was actually implying the opposite.

Quinn

Can't speak to Ben Aris expertise or lack thereof but RWN has on all kinds of guests, the MO seems to be they dont go too hard on fact-checking or challenging them besides polite inquiries because John & Mark rarely share the guests area of expertise, and it would be a bad idea to start turning away specialized guests on a hunch/partial skepticism. Especially consider this is a relatively niche podcast that punches way above its weight in variety/quality of guests. It just comes down to listeners taking things with a grain of salt until doing our own research, which seems plenty reasonable to me.

Jeff Normal

Ben isn’t the perfect guest, but overall I really enjoy his episodes

SB

@Quinn You are right in general. But specifically in the case of Aris I see no good reason for having him on the show 6 times now, 5 since the war started and once a week before it. Is he the most frequent guest after Annibale? I'm sure the show would benefit from a variety of opinions on a subject. To discuss the economic war on Russia, why not try to get Jeffrey Sachs for a change. He's an economist after all with decades of experience in Eastern Europe, unlike Aris. Try asking him about the "greatly increased import of washing machines to get chips for missiles" for a good laugh.

William

Literally everything related to the sanctions against Russia? Did you listen to the episode at all? Like, it was said numerous times that the west thought “yep this is it for them” and yet it has never been “it” for Russia, economically. Here’s a specific for you - cutting Russia off the swift network was supposed to crash their economy. How’d that one turn out?

Derek E. Schmidt

I think in your original post it sounded like you were disparaging Ben rather than agreeing with him.

William

I am - he literally just parrots people who are wrong all the time

Quinn

I would definitely love to see more episodes focused on economics in general so no argument at all there

Cory

So Michael Hudson, Yves Smith et al were correct about this... 18 months ago. Glad we finally got there.

HarshMalarkey

We're not hiring prostitutes here, Jeff

Doug Cartel

'russia wins through sheer numbers' is a weird thing to say because the videos I see are always a couple vehicles doing hit-and-runs and platoon sized elements seizing tree lines. If the Russians are using human wave attacks to beat Ukraine, maybe Ukraine should post some of those videos instead of all these vids of FPV drones ramming the backside of a single BMP.

Jeff Normal

I think that’s one of the higher tier patrons

Alex Passione

Every time Ben is on I learn so much. A really good guest. He should be on more.

Craig Wilson

Just a semantic point but the idea that Russia could win through superior numbers does not automatically assume they are wastefully throwing themselves into human wave attacks. It simply means that in a battle of attrition - regardless of what form the combat takes on the tactical battlefield - they could replace losses and bring in fresh units more readily than their Ukrainian counterparts.

Dorst Savijeski

Ty Rwn, my husband finally understands why I like this channel so much.