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Why 2U on Youssef Zalal ML +125?1) This is being priced as though Zalal is a typical UFC debutant, but he is not. Zalal already has a 3-3-1 record in the promotion but he was cut after a 3-fight skid which included losses against Ilia Topuria (UDEC), Seung Woo Choi (UDEC), & Sean Woodson (SDEC) was followed by a Majority Decision Draw in his bantamweight debut against the highly regarded Da'Mon Blackshear.2) Zalal has been outlanded on significant strikes just one time in 7 UFC appearances. Let's take a look at the totals:-> Zalal 31SS vs. Lingo 12SS | +5 TDs Zalal | (UDEC Win) - Not competitive.-> Zalal 59SS vs. Griffin 28SS | -2 TDs Zalal | (UDEC Win) - Clear Win Zalal.-> Zalal 54SS (+1KD) vs. Barrett 23SS | +3TDs Zalal | (UDEC Win) - Dominant Win.-> Zalal 17SS vs. Topuria 13SS | -5 TDs Zalal | (UDEC Loss) - Current Champion.-> Zalal 23SS vs. Choi 41SS | +1TD Zalal | (UDEC Loss) - Most Sig Strikes Absorbed-> Zalal 42SS vs. Woodson 40SS | +2TD Zalal | (SDEC Loss) - Nip Tuck Decision-> Zalal 63SS vs. Blackshear 27SS | 1TD/athlete | (Majority Draw) - 10-8 Rd. 33) Zalal was favored to beat Choi, Topuria, Barrett, and Griffin. He is proven as a UFC underdog posting a 1-1-1 record as a dog for a 43.5% ROI.-> Zalal +187 vs. Austin Lingo = Dominant, Easy UDEC Win-> Zalal +169 vs. Sean Woodson = Close, Competitive, SDEC Loss-> Zalal +100 vs. Blackshear = Scrappy fight, 2x10-8 Rd. 3 (official) - MDRAW4) Zalal checks a lot of my personal boxes for +EV Underdogs.-> Social Media A-Side despite having less UFC fights & less recent UFC fights.---> Zalal 40.4K Followers on IG vs. Quarantillo (28.5K)-> Betting on the younger athlete by far (27 vs. 35) with a similar amount of:---> Professional experience (23 fights B.Q. vs. 19 fights YZ)---> UFC experience (10 UFC/DWCS for B.Q. vs. 7 UFC Fights for YZ)-> Zalal will have a reach advantage of 2" in this fight (72" vs. 70") - UFCStats5) Billy Quarantillo has faced a lower level of competition in the UFC:--> Defeated fighters with an average win rate of 55.2% in the promotion.--> Lost to fighters with an average win rate of 57.4% in the promotion.--> Zalal defeated fighters with an average win rate of 53.4% in the promotion.--> Zalal lost to fighters with an average win rate of 62% in the promotion.6) Zalal been hungry to get back in the UFC. He trains with UFC level fighters at Factory X and he has demonstrated the ability to get wins at this level. With a +$ number to fade an aging, middling featherweight who has alternated wins and losses since 2020, I have to take it assuming at worst this fight is a pick and at best Zalal could be a hindsight favorite given his youth, his durability (0 finish losses vs. 2KO Losses for Billy Q including as recently as April 2023 & April 2016.