New Bet for UFC Atlantic City (Patreon)

Hey guys. Going to disclose my biases on this bet upfront. I have met Chris Weidman in person, he was a cool guy, and I have always liked him as a fighter. That being said, I am very particular about trying to separate my biases from my analysis. (Example: Bet on Sterling vs. Yan in rematch, not first fight, and didn't bet on him vs. O'Malley.)---Why Chris Weidman ML +240 (CZR) for 1.5U?1) The trends in this matchup support betting on Weidman as the underdog or passing on the fight. Why? Simply put, Silva is not typically favored to win UFC fights and he has rarely covered this price tag even in winning performances.-> Weidman as an underdog is 3-4 in his career for a 22.6% ROI.-> Silva has been a favorite in just 2 UFC bouts posting a 1-1 record for a -32.8% ROI.-> Defeated "Beverly Hills Ninja" Jordan Wright (-29x) and lost to GM3 via SUB (-29x).2) Weidman has struggled against fighters who can match his elite grappling credentials like Luke Rockhold, Jacare Souza, & Yoel Romero as well as fighters that could stuff his takedowns with size / strength like Dominick Reyes and Brad Tavares. All the fighters on this list combined have one career loss via SUB and that was Jacare in his final UFC fight against Andre Muniz (Legit Black Belt, Deadly Armbar, 10 years Jacare's junior (31yo vs. 41yo)3) Bruno Silva is 0-7 career to the SUB with losses via RNC (x2), Head and Arm Choke (x2), Kimura, Heel Hook, and Guillotine Choke. Weidman is 4-0 career to the SUB with wins via Kimura, Brabo Choke, Standing Guillotine Choke, and most recently via Arm-Triangle choke against Kelvin Gastelum on Long Island to a deafening applause. 4) Weidman is a legit black belt under Matt Serra and was competing tooth and nail with the likes of Andre Galvao as a blue belt at the ADCCs. Bruno Silva received his black belt after being dominated by Andrew Sanchez on the mat until he predictably gassed out in the third round as he is known to do and as I predicted and bet on Bruno Silva that night -140 vs. a guy who doesn't have 1/3 the accomplishments of Chris Weidman. Let's examine Silva's UFC Stats:-> 2-2 Career to the Knockdown in the UFC (Power Overrated? Suspect Chin?)-> Knocked down by GM3 (1/3KDs in 20 UFC Fights) & Brendan Allen (1/4KDs in 13 UFC Fights)-> Bruno Silva faced two official SUB attempts in UFC, submitted by both attempts.-> Silva has conceded 8 takedowns in as many UFC fights including 7 against Andrew Sanchez, one against Gerald Meerschaert, and multiple standing back takes/mat returns that were not credited as takedowns against Wellington Turman.-> Silva allowed Brendan Allen 2.5 mins of control time in a fight that ended in Rd.1-> Silva allowed Wellington Turman nearly 3 mins of control time in fight that ended in Rd.1-> Sanchez has just under 8 mins of control time in a fight that ended at the midpoint of Rd.3-> GM3 had over 2 mins of control time, out landed him by 23 strikes, only KD of the fight.5) When Weidman has secured 2 or more takedowns in a UFC bout he is 6-2 in the UFC with 2 wins via stoppage. Silva has shown vulnerability to the single leg Weidman favors and he has shown poor instincts preventing guard passes and control positions on the mat.6) Weidman has been focused on strength and conditioning and working with wrestlers and grapplers by the looks of his Instagram. I think he understands the assignment and still has high motivation, drive, and work ethic.7) Narrative Nation: Weidman has a documentary on his return & recovery on ESPN. I think the UFC wanted to make sure his body could still hold up to strikes so they gave him Tavares. Making it 15 mins and still wanting to compete they're giving him a kill or be killed type matchup with an inconsistent guy with poor grappling fundamentals. He has good 1st layer TDD (73% career) but he shows his back and Weidman should be able to make him pay if he doesn't get flatlined in the first few exchanges.