New Bet for UFC Atlantic City (Patreon)

Hey guys, new bet for UFC Atlantic City. Line dropping quickly so I'll make this writeup quick and attach photos ASAP. I took +370 off market, +340 before the market dropped out on Kambi (Rivers/Unibet), and I was still comfortable with ML risk to +315 (Resorts/PB/Wynn/etc.) so I have all 3 #'s. Acknowledging Downside Risk: This bet is smaller than some of my other money line underdog plays because it doesn't check every box for me --- Arce is the younger fighter with more professional MMA experience and he has better cardio on tape.SO, Why 1U Herbert Burns ML Avg Price ~ (+340) ?1) Herbert Burns has never been an underdog of greater than +185 in his UFC career. > He is 1-1 as a dog for a meager 1.5% ROI (small sample size).-> Cashed as a +105 vs. Nate Landwehr & Crashed as a +185 vs. Bill Algeo.-> Arce is 6-1 as a favorite for a 27.7% ROI ; only his 2nd time > -240 favorite. -> Burns has been favored in 3 UFC/DWCS bouts at average odds of -300.2) Burns has several on paper advantages entering this bout:Grappling:-> 10+ Years of Experience as a Black Belt, 8-0 to the SUB (out of 15 pro fights)-> Arce is only 5-1 to the SUB despite having 24 professional bouts.-> Arce hasn't faced many wrestling or grappling threats in his UFC tenure. -> Burns has height adv. +2" (5'9" vs. 5'7") | reach adv. +3" (73" vs. 70")Size/Anthropomorphic:-> 2" Height Advantage for Burns (5'9" vs. 5'7")-> 3" Reach Advantage for Burns (73" vs. 70")-> Weight/Muscle Density Adv. Burns (Arce last fight at 135lb.)-> Both fighters coming off injury, long layoff, back 9 of career in terms of age for FWT.3) Market Fundamentals:-> Unknowns should push the line closer to 50/50. Both of these fighters are coming off of knee surgeries, both have been out for awhile, both have been finished inside the octagon, both have lost bouts prior to the UFC. Both are black belts, but Burns is a more proven finisher.-> This is the second highest price tag you've been asked to pay on Arce in his career and this is the best price you could've ever bought Burns for in the market.4) Narrative Considerations:-> This is the last fight on Arce's contract and Team Tiger Schulmann's has slowly been disappearing from the UFC. Burgos left for PFL, Lyman Good hasn't fought since 2020, etc.-> Burns brothers have done a bunch of favors for the UFC. Horrible look for Herbert last time, people thought it was exhaustion but he claims he blew his knee on the triangle attempt and went into panic mode. -> Burns body looking more impressive now. Perhaps Post-USADA considerations.5) PTV for a Significant Underdog:-> He is definitely something of a cardio flake but he is big, strong, a highly capable and lethal grappler from the top position and dangerous from his guard. -> He showed in the Nate Landwehr fight he can find the button with his strikes early.-> Burns is 2-2 career to the decision so he is not completely hopeless in a decision if he can get takedowns and show improved cardio (unlikely)