New Money Line Bet: #UFCVegas77 (Patreon)
Content
Albert Duraev ML +135 (Caesars NY / SuperBook NJ)
I believe the wrong fighter is favored in this matchup. Let me explain why:Duraev is a fighter who was priced -400 on DWCS and destroyed Caio Bittencourt (a BJJ black belt on an 8-fight win streak that I BET ON because Duraev hadn't been as active and I wasn't sure he could maul Bittencourt after watching his jiu jitsu matches - Bittencourt actually can grapple) via RNC after landing 78/83 total strikes attempted. He came into his next fight against Roman Kopylov (a fellow Russian, a former LHWT, and a dangerous kickboxer) and he was soundly outstriking him before a counter strike smashed his orbital and created massive swelling. He then used his dominant wrestling to ground his larger opponent for a unanimous decision victory where he fought through adversity and had some ugly moments, but he was a -3xx favorite at close!! Duraev then lost to his former training partner Joaquin Buckley because he failed to get TD's, he came in overconfident, and Buckley stuck to a smart sprawl and brawl game plan targeting the eye of his former teammate that he knew had been injured in the Kopylov fight. Then Duraev went to TEXAS to fight a TEXAN in Chidi Njoukuani and he got the SDEC nod on the strength of 2/3 TD's, 4 mins of control time and outlanding his opponent to the head and the legs despite being the much smaller framed fighter. I believe Duraev is being mispriced in this fight as an underdog because he has the ability to get TD's and dominate Jun Yong Park in the early going. Park has conceded 12 TDs in 8 UFC fights including stat lines of: 6 TDs to 0 for Anthony Fluffy Hernandez (a fight he lost by SUB in Rd. 2) 3 TDs to 0 for Eryk Anders (a fight he won by SDEC but probably deserved to lose) 2 TDs to 0 for Robocop (most recent UFC loss for Park via KO in Rd. 2)Duraev said his camp was focused on getting the finish, showing off his improved strength and conditioning, and dominating his opponent in all facets of the fight. He trains with world class fighters at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas Nevada and he is one of the biggest social media stars on the card. I think he gets the win here and likely in the first two rounds via ground domination. I assumed Duraev would be favored here, no worse than PICK. If Duraev was a favorite, maybe we leave this alone because he has been KD'd 3 times in 4 UFC fights, but Park has yet to record a KD in the UFC and when he tried to go blow for blow with a chinny Robocop he got finished himself. I think Duraev can compete in the striking, I think he can dominate in the grappling, and I think sharp resistance will hit this number personally. I hope tail, fade, or indifferent you appreciate the level of thought and time I put into my analysis. More plays incoming but not going crazy on this low-level card.