BRAND NEW Prop Bet #UFCVegas77 (Patreon)

Albert Duraev KO +1050 (BetRivers)I think the wrong fighter is favored in this matchup (see my Albert Duraev ML bet) but let's discuss why I think this is a mispriced prop.1. Theoretical: Rare to see a 10-1 KO prop in the middleweight division. If this was a massive dog, that would be one thing. +135 implied win probability = (42.6%) +325 implied win probability = (23.5%)+1050 implied win probability = (8.7%)Middleweight Ends via KO Rate = 40% or +150Middleweight Ends via SUB Rate = 19% or +426Middleweight FDGTD Prop = 59% or -143Duraev / Park Ends KO Prop = +320Duraev / Park Ends SUB Prop = +190FDGTD Prop = +1052. Duraev says he is prioritizing a finish in this fight. Park has been TKO'd standing by Robocop, he was getting rocked by the power of Eryk Anders, and he was ready to quit against Fluffy Hernandez. Duraev had competitive minutes striking with Kopylov a former LHW Kickboxer and he was able to mount BJJ black belt Caio Bittencourt in less than 75 seconds on Contender Series before landing 78/83 total strikes on route to a SUB1 victory. I think Duraev can snatch the neck here but the KO is the value. Park has a suspect chin, he is very hittable, and he can get TKO'd positionally. I would rather sprinkle the KO and take the ITD than play the SUB here at +500.3. Sharp markets like BetOnline are showing respect to the Duraev KO prop. After openening +1200 on Duraev KO they have lowered the odds several times down to current odds of +800 (11.1%). Most books are +900 and below in this spot, so I don't expect the +1050 to last much longer. 2 of Duraev's last 4 finishes are via KO, but because he has been going to decision and showing his grappling, the KO price is becoming better over time. Look at how the odds change:Vs. Bittencourt on DWCS Duraev ITD Prop was -163Vs. Kopylov KO Prop was +500 & ITD Prop was -143Vs. Buckley KO Prop was +440 & ITD Prop was +120Vs. Njokuani KO Prop was ++750 & ITD Prop was +220NOWVs. Park KO Prop is +1050 & ITD Prop is +325 ?? Seems like a massive overcorrection vs. an opponent with 2 losses ITD in the UFC.