Brief Thoughts on Each Fight at #UFC291 (Patreon)

Main Event:

Lean is Poirier, don't think there is a huge betting edge. Poirier SUB is +650 vs. Ends SUB +550 so I would always take more outs, but it would be pretty surprising if Gaethje submitted Dustin. I think this fight ends ITD at a decent clip but its being priced accordingly.Co Main Event:Ends by SUB +490 is interesting. Both men live for club/sub, neither man great defensive grappler. However, neither is reliable to push wrestling or grappling. Blachowicz likely will, but he outstruck Izzy 5/5 rounds so not sure he will attempt to grapple. Pereira 3 months removed from a vicious KO, Blachowicz over 40, just feels too volatile to have a big edge IMHO.Feature Bout:Both guys looked bad on the scales. FDGTD +140 is interesting for that reason. 40 year old cardio vs. bad cardio at altitude. Both guys power on the feet, Pereira a BJJ black belt, could mix things up on the mat. I don't like 40yos at chalk. Going to see what happen with back room negotiations fight is still up in the air because of the Pereira weight miss.

Main Card Bout #4:

Bobby Green looks like the fresher fighter but he can be a bone head so he is hard to trust at this chalky price tag. Ferguson has looked like a shell of himself lately but he cut the weight back to 155lb., and last time he did that he won the first round against Chandler. This fight could end via sad KO1, but its more likley to be a somewhat one-sided Green DEC. Hope I am wrong, but I have little interest in betting the fight. 

Main Card Opener:

Kevin Holland is coming off a KO2 win (recency bias?) and 76% of tapology voters like him to beat Chiesa. Holland lost two fights ago to Wonderboy in a similar price range ~ (-160) and was finished in the process. When Wonderboy was grounded, he failed to follow up. Holland has not turned a profit as a UFC commodity whereas Cheisa has been profitable in all odds categories including as an underdog. Chiesa's last two wins inside the octagon were as an underdog. He has never been KD in the UFC and has scored one or more TDs in every bout since 2017 including against the likes of RDA, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, Neil Magny, and Carlos Condit. I think on the money line this has to be dog or pass, but the lay off from Cheisa is a bit unnerving. Ends SUB +200 is interesting because Cheisa tends to lose via self-immolation at times. He will force wrestling and grappling here so I expect he can SUB Holland or put himself in a position to get subbed. My only hesitation is seeing Holland survive big strong grapplers like Derek Brunson locking in a head and arm choke for minutes at a time. I expect a wild grappling match.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prelim Quick Hits!!

On rewatch, Riberio is not a great wrestler, don't expect him to consistently take down Kopylov unless they are both gassed. Boxing Kopylov has superior technique so unless he gets bonked (which is definitely possible) he is the rightly favored fighter. Since moving to Dagestan the guy is working with Armen Petrosyan and crew and he looks way better. He took down Puna (D3 Wrestling talent) and beat him pillar to post. I think Ends SUB +1100 too wide on principal but Kopylov probably sets him on fire with the jab and body kick in Rd. 2/3. The altitude could take some sting off these guys shots. The only other positive about Riberio is he rips low kicks and that has bothered Kopylov in the past. I just think Kopylov seems smart enough to prepare for that in this matchup as Riberio is essentially wild swinging counter hooks and heavy low kicks.

-----

I think Giles is being overlooked this weekend. He is not attracting sharp money (yet) as far as I can tell but Bonfim is 94% tapology votes (most on the card), Bonfim's brother got killed earlier this month in a similar price range. I think this is the better brother, but they are headcases on the feet as best I can tell. Ego fighters with good, potent offense but a willingness to trade and brawl at times. Giles has a fast jab, he is finally a full-time fighter (retired from Houston PD), and he will have a 2" reach advantage. Giles can make boneheaded mistakes but he is 2-1 at welterweight, 7-4 in the UFC and he has wins over Preston Parsons (UFC), Roman Dolidze (UFC), Brendan Allen (LFA), Ryan Spann (LFA). Still just 30 years of age. Giles chin is a touch shaky at 170lb. but Bonfim hangs his chin in the air and swings reckless. -300 (75%) is too much for 1-0 in the UFC with wins over Waters (super close DWCS fight prior to SUB) & Mounir Lazzez IMHO.

----

Lewis looked in better shape than I expected, but I still think its an uphill battle here for Lewis. De Lima hasn't been KO'd since pre-UFC. I have enough EV on my wager that I am just sticking to my 1.13U play to win 1U on De Lima. I think Ends by SUB +650 is sneaky. If De Lima pulls a stunt, Lewis has a career win by armbar and did pursue TDs against Tuivasa. De Lima has gotten takedowns in 2/L3 fights and 2+ minutes of control in each fight he recorded a TD.

Combined: 4-7 Career record to the SUB (11/67 career) = 16.4% vs. Ends SUB +650 (13.3%)

----

Going to study a little more tape on the early prelims! If you have any questions, comments, concerns please comment below or DM me for more information.