2 New Official Prop Bets (Long Shots) (Patreon)

These are two longshot bets. I took each bet for .3U stake.Keep in mind, these are bets I am willing to lose but I bet them long term because I believe in my ability to pick mispriced spots over time. Some inherent volatility in this odds range, so tail or fade at your comfortable level of risk.

Both props are available on FanDuel. Both are +EV to the other sportsbooks that price these markets. Middleweight divisional SUB rate is 18% (t-4th highest in the UFC), Flyweight divisional SUB rate is 22% (highest in the UFC).

.3U Kopylov/Riberio Ends via SUB +1100

Neither Kopylov or Riberio has attempted a SUB yet in the UFC but both guys have attempted, secured, and given up taken downs. Moreover, Kopylov was submitted by Karl Roberson (a former kickboxer and now felon) in his UFC debut, one of his 4 octagon appearances. Albert Duraev also recorded a SUB attempt against Kopylov but was unable to finish. Since he moved to Dagestan, Kopylov has sharpened his striking as well as his wrestling and grappling. Riberio is a Brazilian who lost his first fight via SUB on the Brazilian regionals but has not been submitted since. When two striker meet up they are liable to test each other's submission grappling chops. I think both men are vulnerable enough on the mat to warrant a small bet here.

(Full Write Up on Kopylov/Riberio will be attached)

.3U Vergara/Salvador Ends via SUB +850

CJ Vergara was submitted by standout grappler Tatsuro Taira in one of his two UFC losses and he was submitted prior by Devin Miller in LFA less than one minute into the fight. He is taking on BJJ black belt Vinicius Salvador in this fight, a Brazilian fighter who missed weight for the contest. Salvador comes from Ribas Family gym but he has been training a lot on the mats in Las Vegas at ATT Nevada. I bet Salvador via ITD & via SUB in his DWCS showing against Shannon Ross in which he recorded 4 KD's en route to a KO victory. As frustrating as that was, DWCS is a showcase fight and Salvador swings heavy power, but it doesn't mean he won't try to sink in a submission if he has the opportunity inside the octagon. Vergara is primarily a striker but he has spent time in top control positions in the Rodrigues fight and more recently the Lacerda fight. Both of these fighters can be club and subbed, both of these fighters have shown porous takedown defense at times, and both fighters make positional mistakes in the grappling. Vergara should have a noticeable cardio edge at elevation here and that dynamic also creates potential late submission equity. These men have a combined 1-3 record to the SUB prop. In Vergara's last 3 UFC fights there have been 6 submission attempts recorded (1 SUB attempt, 4 SUBs defended, 1 SUB loss). Salvador and Altamirano combined for 4 TD's but there was never a submission attempt of note in the fight. According to UFC stats, no Altamirano fight in the UFC has seen a credited submission attempt, so perhaps Salvador will have more opportunities to open up on the mats against Vergara.