Good Morning! Co-Main Event Thoughts (Patreon)

Co-Main Event Thoughts: **1st Official Bet Made, Sharing Thought Process**This is a fight I have been giving much thought and deliberation. I see red flags on both fighters despite their immense skill and talent. Let's discuss the context of the fight.Andrade was KO1 by Yan Xiaonan in May (Less than 3 month turnaround, finished 2x in 2023)Suarez returned from a 3+ year lay off at 125lb. and defeated MDLR in February.Andrade took this fight on short notice; Suarez was preparing for Virna Jandiroba fight.One long term angle I look for is younger fighters with more experience (especially high-level experience). A girl I absolutely love is Tatiana Suarez because she has dominant wrestling, excellent physicality, and she is developing a nasty submission game alongside personal money train and favorite fighter Patchy Mix. However, Jessica Andrade fits the system as a +300 underdog who is younger and has 3x the professional experience of Suarez. Andrade appears to be on a career down swing, but the system says it's a dog or pass situation on the money line. Andrade has gone under in 9/L11 fights.>>> 6/L11 ended in Rd. 1>>> As a strawweight, 3 of Andrade's L4 fights ended in Rd. 1 Suarez has gone under in 3/L6 fights.>>> 4/6 UFC bouts have ended ITD.>>> Suarez has finished 2 UFC Champions (Grasso SUB1 & Esparza TKO3)>>> Suarez been DEC twice in UFC (Debut vs. Pereira & last appearance vs. Nunes)

Career Finish Rates:Andrade: 71%Suarez: 66%Gets Finished Rate:Andrade: 72%Suarez: 0%Other Notable Facts:Both women average over 4 Sig Strikes Landed Per Minute (Andrade absorbs >5/Min)Both women shown to be dangerous submission threats >>> 3 SUB wins a piece, Andrade 3 SUB losses as well.Both women have TKO'd UFC Strawweight Champions.Both women unknowns re: cutting to strawweight.>>> Andrade KO1'd last fight at 115lb. Suarez first time at 115lb. since 6/8/2019.>>> Andrade 1:4 KD ratio at Strawweight (VERY ALARMING) 1:3 in 6 most recent appearances.Oddsmakers opened Andrade +500 (16.7%) now +310 (24.4%) not as big a move as it seems.Let's Examine Odds History:As a favorite Suarez is 6-0 in the UFC at avg. odds of -450 (81.8%) for a 22.7% ROI.-769 vs. MDLR (Feb. 2023) - Win via SUB2 (Guillotine)-600 vs. Nina Nunes (June 2019) - Win via UDEC-400 vs. Carla Esparza (Sept. 2018) - Win via TKO3 (GNP)-545 vs. Alexa Grasso (May 2018) - Win via SUB1 (RNC)-286 vs. Viviane Pereira (Nov. 2017) - Win via UDEC-357 vs. Amanda Bobby Cooper (July 2016) - Win via SUB1 (D'Arce Choke)As an underdog Andrade is 1-4 in the UFC at avg. odds of +257 (28%) for a -30.4% ROI.+330 vs. Valentina Shevchenko (April 2021) - Lost via KO2 (GNP)+186 vs. Rose Namajunas (July 2020) - Lost via SDEC+248 vs. Claudia Gadelha (Sept. 2017) - Won via UDEC+180 vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (May 2017) - Lost via UDEC+475 vs. Liz Carmouche (July 2017) - Lost via KO2*Andrade favored in each of her last 5. 3-2 over that period. 1-1 at strawweight. ~5% ROI over a 24 fight sample size. First woman to reach 25 UFC bouts.*Gut Feeling:

Suarez was booked on this card, Andrade is being brought in on short notice. Feels like the company is trying to reintroduce Suarez to fans in a big way. Suarez is used to being this big a favorite, so while it is strange to see Andrade in this position, we have seen girls like Esparza and Grasso bend the knee to Suarez. Andrade is used to being the more physical bully, but she is unlikely to be that in this fight. Suarez has the technical skills to back it up IMHO. If this becomes a prolonged striking match, that is where Andrade becomes live because she has natural power. However, the power hasn't translated as much at strawweight. Her only KO's are against Namajunas (in May 2019 via meme slam in a fight she was losing), Kowalkiewicz in 2018 and Jessica Penne in 2016. Andrade hasn't fought many dedicated wrestlers, but the Shevchenko fight feels like a decent parallel in some ways. Shevchenko had the size advantages, the strength advantages, and the technical wrestling advantages and she leveraged that into constant dominant positions and over 5 minutes of control time in a fight that was stopped in Rd. 2. Andrade can be controlled and dominated on the mat despite her blackbelt as we saw against Blanchfield (1 TD, 1 Min Control, lost via SUB2)Shevchenko (7 TD, 5 Min Control, win via TKO2)She can also be hurt and rocked on the feet as she has been knocked down at 115lb:Seems like where she used to be able to rally from KD's, she is now starting to get finished.Yan Xiaonan (1 KD, Lost via KO1)Zhang Weili (1 KD, Lost via KO1)Namajunas (1 KD, lost via Slam KO2) Angela Hill (1 KD, lost via UDEC) Pick/Lean: Suarez ML (-350) & Suarez ITD (-140)OFFICIAL BET #1: .25U Suarez via KO +540 (BetRivers) May Add if Market Continues to Show Support.Odds Comparison:+330 on (DK/MyBookie) = 23.3%+375 (Superbook NJ) = (21.1%)+400 (Betonline) = 20% - Opened +500 (16.7%)+540 (Rivers) = 15.6%Potential Value: **Suarez SUB has been nerfed. Possible but line is shit.**Suarez Methods: KO (+540) BetRivers & DEC (+350) FanDuel are price outliers.Either via KO: +280 (BetRivers) vs. +210 FanDuel & +200 DraftKings.Suarez Rounds: RD2 (+500) & TKO2 (+1800) & KO1 (+1000)Total: Under 2.5 Rounds (-190) Bet365 & (-200) Multiple Books**Total is a steep price but covers a lot of Andrade win equity.** **7/9 Andrade UFC Losses ITD (7/7 Losses in Rd. 1 or 2).**Suarez Double Chance: KO/DEC (+165) Bet365 | KO/DEC (+145) FanDuel | KO/DEC (+100) DraftKings.KO/SUB (-140) Bet365 | KO/SUB (-150) DraftKings. | KO/SUB (-165) FanDuel/BetOnline.SUB/DEC (-175) Bet365 | SUB/DEC (-185) DraftKings | SUB/DEC (-190) DraftKings.If you believe in Andrade as a dog here: +300 Best Available Domestic (Wynn/Bet365)+310 Best Available on International Books (BetOnline)Prop Consideration:Ends by SUB +100 (DK/Fanduel) & -117 (BetRivers) but Andrade SUB +1300 (FanDuel)**Andrade has a nasty gilly, wrestlers shooting TD's can get gilly'd time to time**