First Official Bet for #UFCNashville (Patreon)

Placing my first prop bet for UFC Nashville. Should be a fun card. This feels like a misprice to me for a few reasons: market, matchup, and context..25U Tatiana Suarez via KO/TKO (+540) BetriversIf you want a comprehensive understanding of the fight, look at my detailed write-up for the co-main event. I distilled the rationale down to these essential points.Considering adding to this bet, but for now, I am sticking with .25U.Suarez has 2 career wins via TKO including 1 win in the UFC over a former 115lb. Champ (Esparza).Andrade has 4/9 (44.4%) of her UFC losses via KO/TKO and 5/11 (45.4%) of her PRO losses via KO/TKO.Andrade absorbs over 5 significant strikes per minute compared to only 1.3 for Suarez.Suarez lands over 6 significant strikes per minute according to UFC stats (not as aggressive with strikes v. MDLR to be fair).Suarez never been KD in the UFC, vicious GNP attacks.Andrade was KO'd in the first round in May.Andrade has lost twice in the UFC as an underdog via TKO2 (both times she was +250 or higher she was finished via strikes)Andrade has a 1:4 KD ratio at strawweight (1 KD recorded vs. 4 absorbed).Andrade 1:3 KD ratio in L6 strawweight fights.Andrade has been KO'd at strawweight by Yan Xiaonan & Zhang Weili, she has been KD by Rose Namajunas and Angela Hill, and she has been taken down by Tecia Torres, Shevchenko, and Blanchfield since 2018 so I assume Suarez can take her down as well.Suarez 2+ TDs vs. every UFC opponent including highlight performance vs. Esparza in which she out landed her 82 to 6 on Sig Strikes and out landed her on TD's 9-0.Narrative Only For Patreon: I called that Suarez would match Submit MDLR with a guillotine choke in part because her boyfriend Patchy Mix is a guillotine assassin. Andrade has been RNC'd twice & Triangle Choked once but never guillotined. I think this is the fight where we see Suarez GNP come back into play.