UFC 296 Pre-Tape Prelim Info Dump (Patreon)

1. Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikhov⭕️ Brown win over Turman aging poorly⭕️ Brown 3-2 on UFC PPV--WINS: vs. Khaos Williams SDEC (274), Cowboy Oliveira SUB1 (261) & Mickey Gall UDEC--LOSSES: vs Madelena SUB1 (UFC 284) & Belal Muhammad UDEC (UFC 208)--⭕️ Salikhov 1-2 in his L3, 3-2 since 2020⭕️ Salikhov's biggest UFC opponent📏 Brown 3" Height, 9" Reach, 6 Years Younger📸 Salikhov 5x Social Media A-Side (250K v 50K)--UFC Fights:⚔️ FDGTD: 🇯🇲 9/16 (56%) | 🇷🇺 5/9 (56%)All Professional Fights:⚔️ FDGTD: 🇯🇲 15/22 (68%) | 🇷🇺 18/23 (78%)--🚩 Salikhov over 38 years of age (KO rate 📈🚩 Brown 4:4 KDs, 2 KO losses, JDM Club/SUB🚩Brown less accurate & worse defense stats 🤯 Salikhov 1-0 as a dog; 6-3 UFC (17% ROI)🤯 Brown 7-2 as a favorite; 11-5 UFC (27.4% ROI)🤯 Biggest reach advantage of Brown's career--Gut Feeling: FDGTD? 🤔 Offshore only -115 👀--2. Shamil Gaziev vs. Martin Buday⭕️ Gaziev +$ as an undefeated fighter (11-0) 🤔⭕️ Gaziev tested on DWCS, nearly submitted⭕️ Buday 4-0 UFC & 1-0 DWCS (vs 12-14 Opp.)⭕️ Gaziev 1-0 in DECs vs 4-1 for Buday🥋 Both men SUB props over +5xx offshore🥋 Buday & Gaziev each 3-0 career to the SUB🚩 Buday absorbing 5+ Sig Strikes / Min @ HWT🤯 Gaziev hanging out with Ankalaev & KHK Top Team Bahrain 🇧🇭 invited from Dagestan National Volleyball Team personally by Abdulmanap Nurm.--Gut Feeling: DOP , Ends by SUB , FDGTD--3. Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida⭕️ Both guys coming off a loss in this spot⭕️ Fili lost to Nathaniel Wood via UDEC⭕️ Almeida got dominated by Sabatini via SUB2📏 Height/Age Parity, 3" Reach Adv. for Fili🚩 5-5 Career KD Rate for Fili | 2-4 Since 2019🚩 Fili -.5 Sig Strike Differential (Huge Sample)🚩 Almeida ground game looks very suspect 🚩 Almeida absorbing 5+ Sig Strikes / Min👀 Fili SUB opens +700 | Almeida KO +250👀 Fili & Almeida both opened +175 to win ITD🥶 Fili 7-5 as a favorite (-5.6% ROI) 🥶 Fili 10-9 since 2013 (-1.4% ROI)🤯 Almeida 1-2 (0% ROI) as a dogUFC/DWCS Fights:⚔️ FDGTD 🇺🇸 7/19 (36.8%) | 🇧🇷 2/3 (67%)All Professional Fights:⚔️ FDGTD 🇺🇸 17/32 (53%) | 🇧🇷 15/16 (93.8%)--Almeida seems kill or be killed archetype ✍️Fili Chun regression, path to an easy SUB ✍️--Gut Feeling: FDGTD / Under 2.5 Rounds--4. Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden⭕️ Cody Durden Strikes me as a live dog 🐕‍🦺⭕️ Durden on a 4-fight win streak (mid-comp)⭕️ Ulanbekov beat depleted Maness (1st @ FLY)🚩 Ulanbekov lost to Elliott (American Wrestler)🚩 Ulanbekov lucky to take close SDEC v. Nasci🚩 Durden 2 SUB losses; getting better 🥋 🚩 Durden twice medically not cleared to fight🚩 Ulanbekov 5 pull-outs & 1 injury cancelation🫁 Both guys can gas out in this fight 🫁👀 Durden 5-1 in DECs vs. 6-2 Ulanbekov👀 Ali Abdelaziz fighter Tagir🤯 Ulanbekov another Abdulmanap N. Project--Gut Feeling: Cody Durden wins by DEC--5. Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby📏 Virtual Age/Reach Parity, Jacoby 3" Taller⭕️ Menifield 7-3 in UFC with 6 wins ITD (2 SUBS)⭕️ Menifield since 2020 = 5-3 (1 Loss ITD)⭕️ Jacoby 7-4-1 in UFC with 4 wins by KO/TKO⭕️ Jacoby since 2020 = 8-2-1 (no losses ITD)👀 Jacoby 6-4 to the DEC vs Alonzo 1-2 DEC🥋 Menifield 4-0 to SUB, theo. grappling edge🥋 Jacoby 1-2 career to the SUB 🤢 0 since 2015⭕️ Factory X (Jacoby) vs. Pat Barry (Menifield)🤢 Menifield lost to William Knight (geniune bum)🤢 Menifield KO'd by OSP; Embarassing fashion--Gut Feeling: Jacoby KO/DEC (Menifield SUB?)--6. Casey O'Neill vs. Arianne Lipski📏 O'Neill 3 years younger & 2" Reach Advantage⭕️ Lipski 2-0 in 2023, training at Lioness Studios⭕️ Lipski 5-5 in UFC; Ends ITD: 3/5 L's & 1/5 W's⭕️ O'Neill never finished as a Pro, 2 Ammy KO L's⭕️ O'Neill 4-1 in UFC; Ends ITD: 3/4 Wins & 0/1 L's📸 Lipski Social Media A-Side (347K vs 164K)🚩 O'Neill 2 Injury Pullouts Since 7/2022🚩 Lipski 4 KO/TKO losses in WMMA in Rd.1/2🚩 Lipski Only Fans & Promoting Tout Services✍️ O'Neill Managed by Tim Simpson, living & training in Las Vegas (home game for her)--Gut Feeling: Casey O'Neill bounce back but not very bullish. Clear improvements from Lipski.--7. Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher⭕️ Garbrandt frmr UFC Champ; 8-5 UFC (61.5%)⭕️ Garbrandt 13-5 as a professional, young vet📏 Cody ~5 years younger, 2" Taller, 1.5" Reach👀 Kelleher 3-2 KD Ratio in the UFC, only KDs suffered against "Hands of Stone" Lineker🚩 Garbrandt massive chin liability; 4KO losses🚩 Garbrandt 11:7 KD Ratio | 2:7 since 2017🚩 Garbrandt inactive, just 7 Fights since 2017🚩 Kelleher coming off neck surgery 😬--Gut Feeling: FDGTD, Kelleher could be Live--8. Karol Rosa vs Irene AldanaTO BE CONTINUED...