First Three Bets for UFC 296 (Patreon)

This is the kind of bet that will look really sharp or really square and I am prepared for either outcome. I've never lost a bet on either one of these fighters so I don't believe I am forcing action, just trying to capitalize on a long-term angle while acknowledging the upfront risks.Why Paddy Pimblett via KO/TKO +350?

1. Paddy has cashed the KO prop two times in a similar price range:Vs. Luigi Vendramini (UFC Debut) @+425 | Vs. Declan Dalton (Cage Warriors) @ +3002. Paddy has a 1-0 career KD rate in the UFC.3. Ferguson has 2 losses via KO/TKO in his last 6 Fights.4. Ferguson has a 3-5 career KD rate (0-3 since 2016, last KD in 2015)5. Ferguson is 39 going on 40 in February; KO loss rates skyrocket after 38.6. Ferguson reaction time, defensive posture, willingness to take damage declining.7. Pimblett is younger, fresher, on steroids/PEDs, more marketable, worth more to company.Why Paddy Pimblett ITD +108?1. Ferguson has been submitted twice in a row by Bobby Green & Nate Diaz (elder statesmen)2. Ferguson has been finished in 4 of his last 6 fights (2KO/TKO & 2 SUBs)3. Ferguson Stat Line over his Last 6 Fights:-> Opponents 7 TD's vs. Ferguson 1 TD (-6 TDs)> Opponents 6 SUB Attempts vs. Ferguson 1 SUB Attempt (-5 SUB Attempts)> Opponents 472 Sig Strikes Landed vs. Ferguson 324 Sig Strikes Landed (-148 Sig Strikes)> Opponents spent ~30 Mins in Control Positions vs. ~0 For Tony (-30 Mins Control)-4. Pimblett has finished 15/20 (75%) of his pro wins vs. Ferguson 5/9 (55.6%) Losses ITD.5. Pimblett has finished 5/L6 (83.3%) Fights & 3/4 (75%) UFC Appearances. Why Pimblett KO1?1. Paddy Pimblett has 6 wins via strikes (5KOs/1SUB) & all 6 have come in Rd. 12. Paddy Pimblett has finished 4/L6 fights in Rd. 13. Pimblett's only KO in the UFC came in Rd. 1 in his UFC debut.4. Pimblett said he wanted to "remind people" of his debut and "batter someone" when he returns to the cage. I think for promotional/brand reasons Pimblett will be chasing the KO victory.--------------------------------------------Market Considerations:-BetOnline Openers: (All Directionally Moving Towards these Looks)Pimblett ITD opens +100 (50% aka EVEN) currently -130 (56.5%) - 6.5% Move TowardsPimblett KO opens +350 (22.2%) currently +310 (24.4%) - 2.2% Move TowardsPimblett KO1 opens +775 (11.4%) currently +650 (13.3%) - 1.9% Move Towards-Other Market Forces?1. FanDuel opens Pimblett KO +350, peaks +380, nuked to +290, now back at +350.2. FanDuel opens Ends KO +230, floor at +175, currently +200.3. BetRivers opens Pimblett KO +370, down to +340.4. DraftKings opens Pimblett KO +275 (well under market avg. of +326) 5. DraftKings opens Ends KO +165.