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Radio War Nerd EP #474 — Nihilistic Regional Murder Spree: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, ? (Patreon)

Published:
2024-10-03 01:57:12
Imported:
2024-10
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Recorded: October 2, 2024

Emergency episode update on Israel's now-regional war: Iranian missile strikes on Israeli air bases and cities, deadly Israeli battles with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, plus a brief word on the fall of Vuhledar...

*Table of Iran's missile arsenal

*Maps

*Southern Lebanon terrain

*Vuhledar

Total time: 1:04:55

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

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Comments

Watermane

first and straight (not)

Brett

Every time an emergency episode drops, a further escalation occurs. Meaning that Israel will probably respond on Iran within the next 24 hrs now that this episode is out.

rocketfodder

We're going to have a lot of episodes soon, I fear

MoldyTolge

Now that’s what I call a War Nerd episode title. Given that so many early episodes focused on events and different stages of the Syrian Civil War and various cold/low boil conflicts through this podcast alone it is brilliantly and painfully clear how much worse things are. Sudan just by itself is staggeringly brutal compared to most conflicts of the recent era. Maybe this is recency bias talking but conflicts seem to be regressing back to a bloody mean.

T

Been refreshing all day for this drop

Sam Zeng

The Biden administration has been a boom to the military podcast world.

NYCM&AHole

Also I heard the Israelis haven’t used as many jets in Lebanon since yesterday and they have used their navy instead to shell places

William

Obviously RWN should stop releasing episodes then

HarshMalarkey

Can't even induce a world war without all the cancel culture

Adam Burch

I am now confident that the Biden administration is the harm reduction candidate.

xasquim

I would push back on how "in disarray" Hezbollah is, considering the reports of a massive Hezbollah ambush against IOF special forces today. Their operational effectiveness still seems to be relatively intact, and in all honesty I think the hosts are taking Landis and his conclusions with far too few grains of salt

JoR

I completely agree. Early RWN topics often focused on really small skirmishes, by today's standard. The headline stories of early episodes was literally "one off" rage killings by jihadi aligned lone wolves, and maybe the occasional real ISIS attack. I definitely don't think it's only recency bias. Imagine if Ethiopia and Egypt do go to war too

JoR

Trying to take the most long term, ultra realist stance possible, I don't necessarily think Iran or even Hezbollah is losing. In guerilla/irregular terms, the constant escalations from Israel is them "winning" . Not in terms of what they'll witness in their own lives, especially as they (and presumably their families) get killed. But Israel was already taking major PR hits with Gaza. The more they escalate the more they will (potentially) alienate the rest of the world. Let's just say a scenario does happen where Israel destroys Iran's oil, and Iran retaliates and destroys Saudi's oil. And, if the American economy does hit the shitter, leading to Trumps victory, yeah, it's a short term win for Israel. But so what? How many millions of people, even if initially sympathetic to israel, would start to be pissed off? What about their client states (Americas) stability? I honestly don't think Trump is going to "ruin America", but I also think his 2nd potential term would be much more volitale than the first. But what if Trump winning in this fashion basically sours the Democrats on Israel? That's not entirely likely, but we know how much they want Trump to lose. Alienating half of America would be a disaster for Israel, long term. Israel is also in a situation where they'll continually have to escalate. God forbid it gets to nukes. But, if you are a devot Shia Muslim and you do believe in the afterlife, would this be the end of the world? Well, yeah, it would literally be the end of the world but who cares? I think causing your enemy to do a nuclear holocaust would be the ultimate irregular war victory

John Waaben

What’s up with the Lebanese foreign minister saying that Nasrallah agreed to a ceasefire before the assassination?

Ander Pierce

Israel wanted a regional war, now it gets one. US had better be smart enough to avoid commiting manpower to shore up Israel's aggression.

Karl Childers

Gaza, Lebanon, Iran ... aaaand now Syria

PostmasterFenian

Radio war nerd self criticism session needs to keep happening in the joshua landis comments thread not this one.

Thomas Svennungson

“Bombing in wonton fashion” haven’t heard that term used for dahiya level bombing before

Karl Childers

i was wondering that too. saw someone say he's lying and has a history of working with Western NGO types, i guess the idea being that his statement is a form of propaganda to discredit Hezbollah, but i haven't looked into his background so idk. best guess i've heard anyway, since i can't see why Nasrallah/Hezbollah would have agreed to a ceasefire recently, or if he had why we would only be hearing about it after his death.

Hans Anders

It seems Hamas had better counter intel than Hezbollah or Iran. A Great Purge hurts, but you can still win a world war within the decade after.

Methew

Remind me, the ceasefire talks in question were unilateral between Hezbollah and Israel correct? Bc if so it to me seems impossible he’d have agreed. If the deal presented to him did include with gaza as well then I think it’s atleast plausible

That Guy

Wasn't the Russian foreign minister in Iran right before they launched against Israel? It seems like Israel thoroughly severed any chance of US-Iran rapprochement with the new relatively progressive Iranian prez.

Methew

Yeah it was unilateral, Op senses tingling, nasrallah wouldn’t abandon Gaza with a unilateral agreement imo

Tristan

Successfully leading a pilgrim convoy in that part of modern Lebanon used to get you big cred in groups like the Knights of St John

William

It’s really hard to scramble f35s because it’s kind of like the bluesmobile at the end of the blues brothers

William

It doesn’t really matter if the missile defense systems are good or not; being tied to American defense contractors means the lead times are long and the inventory levels are shallow. If Iran has a large enough stockpile, they can run the missile tubes dry

William

Is there ANYTHING that would deter isrally reaction though?

Doug Cartel

If by darwinian theory you mean "only the strong survive" that's fake, if you mean "living things optimize themselves for their environment" then that's true Biologists are apparently figuring out that there is no slave/master relationship between fungi and trees, its re-negotiated every moment of the day, which kind of fucks with the "kill or be killed" thing everyone thinks rules life at all scales.

tabbyswipe

What are the andrew Colburn eps on us weapons development?

William

Isreal has fallen prey to one of the classic blunders - never engage in a land war in lebanon

ploob

They're only 1/2 weeks from a nuclear capability soooo.

Kawaii Leonard

I’m really interested in how all the old players like Lebanese Forces are reacting to the conflict. Also have been watching the PM Mikati very closely

John Waaben

Yeah! Creatures of all shapes and sizes are just trying to survive- predation and cooperation are both potential strategies.

Self-Replicate

Darwin himself cautioned against this vulgarization, even opposing the term evolution in favor of "descent with modification." Stephen Jay Gould writes very clearly about these misconceptions. Evolution is far, far more complex and surprising than people realize.

Christopher Small

John: “Iran and Hezbollah can hurt Israel’s economy and get moderate people to leave, but it’s not going to change Israel the way they want” What? You mean an increasingly erratic basket case with a collapsed economy that bombs itself into pariah status? No, I think that’s exactly what they want Israel to be like.

Jason Thompson

Wanton. The adjective, not the Chinese food

Karl

In the videos, maybe one in ten incoming missiles were intercepted. The rest hit the ground. Who knows how accurate they were.

Alec

I read an article that says the Iranians have the S400 system now. I’m really interested to see if it comes into play if Israel decides to fly planes over Iranian airspace…

Jonathan Penn

A very helpful episode. The situation in the Middle East reminds me of a corollary of Murphy's Law, "There is no situation so bad that it cannot be fucked up even further." And a few observations re) the episode's specifics. The U.S. Navy uses various versions of the Standard Missile for air and missile defense. More advanced models works at higher altitudes and speeds. I am not privy to the Navy's price list, but I doubt that any version of the missile costs less than several million dollars. The low altitude missiles for Iron Dome may be somewhat less expensive but as has been observed, shooting down a cheap ballistic missile is an expensive proposition. The tradeoffs in the war of hypersonic Irani missiles versus Arrow air/missile defense missiles is an interesting one we will see play out over the next few months. It is all about Delta V-how much the second stage of the Irani missile has and how much the Arrow has. And an Iranian "weakness" that may be a strength- they don't have an air force. I'm sure their completed missiles are stored in underground bunkers, making the task of the Israeli Air Force difficult. On the other side, I bet most of Israel's aircraft have hardened shelters so destroying planes on the ground is not going to be a trivial exercise. But the true disaster which Netanyahu seems to want is a ground invasion of Iran by a joint Israeli/U.S. force. After all, attacking Iran on the ground worked so well for Iraq.

Jimothy Realname

From what it looked like, they were at least very precise. without actually seeing the results, it's hard to say whether they were accurate, but for launching from 2000 km away, it was a very tight spread

t6xc nick

As popular as Patreon is, a lot more goes wrong for me when I play audio files rather than video files, maybe it's an html problem

a clash of purple

The popular (mis)conception of evolution is as ridiculous and wrong as creationism. Which is the real reason why a lot of intelligent people disliked the theory of evolution in the first place. It was pretty obvious to everyone in Darwin's day that the notion of natural selection was going to be instrumentalized to justify racism and class hierarchy. The fact that the whole "survival of the fittest" idea, as commonly imagined, is totally wrong from a scientific standpoint is irrelevant to everyone who matters. Not that I'm saying the theory of evolution is wrong or should be suppressed or something. Obviously people will always invent whatever rationalization they need for their bad ideology. But it's a scientific concept that has been abused quite a lot over the years.

Maciek

It’s say about 1/3rd to 1/2 the time I try and play older episodes from whatever podcast I’m subscribed too, there’s a playback error in the app. I try and play the same episode a few days later and it works. Who knew getting audio to stream would be so hard, technology sure is progress

JoR

Also episode 296

Google Hushabye Vally

I'm not going to sugarcoat it, you're giving the racist morons in charge of Israel and the USA too much credit. They terrorize, they are good at terrorizing, but you underestimate their victims abilities to adapt to Israel and America's brutal tactics. Yes, Hezbollah having their leaders massacred hurt, but it's pure folly to suggest that such assassinations would cause Hezbollah to keel over. Especially when antizionist resistance in the region has been taking massive assassinations to the chin for decades.

Nicholas Levis

I cannot see Iran retaliating to an Israeli (US) attack on oil facilities by hitting Saudis, with whom they signed peace brokered by China!

Nomad22

I'm seeing pictures floating around the internet of one of the Israeli airbases the Iranians hit. It looks like at least some missiles impacted runways and buildings. I would think the runways would be easy to repair; any aircraft or important parts in the buildings .... less so. I know the Russians have had some success destroying Ukrainian fighters on the ground with Iskander strikes. I wonder if Iran has similar capabilities. Then again, I have no idea if the pictures are even legit.

G W

Is there any evidence that Nasrallah's assassination has degraded Hezbollah's military capabilities? "Of course it did" is not evidence. We haven't seen any slowdown in their operations, rocket fire, drone attacks, and on top of that it's been a week of them repelling Israeli ground invasion.

Nicholas Levis

The sources and Leb FM all say 21 day ceasefire, not perm. Take it how you like, I have no idea what truth or motives may be

Trazdat

On the hypersonic missiles I think you forget that every bit of mass spent on post boost maneuvering takes away from payload mass, and probably adds to cost to build. That’s virtual attrition even if the defense missiles don’t hit, and starts to tip the cost ratios between attacker and defender. I’m also curious if Iran has a spy satellite, or can get a recon drone close enough to help with pre strike targeting or post strike damage assessment. Would the Russians risk helping them with that?

JoR

That's fair. But if Iran's Oil gets destroyed, previous diplomacy is out the window. They'd have to retaliate hard, what else can they do?

Nicholas Levis

They will not act to break ties with China! How does that help? Retaliation by more strikes against Israel and maybe US bases, and call on oil producers to embargo west like in 73. They will feel some pressure to go along at this stage.

Nicholas Levis

No idea what any of them may do, merely describing what seems to be best, rational strategic response.

David Andrews

Good discussion, guys. It's amazing how quickly Gaza has fallen off the front pages.

PostmasterFenian

The russians don't have that many spy satellites I think. They have only two that go over ukraine (the us has much better coverage),

Michael L

Yep, enough said